Reproducibility package for The Scars Of Global Growth Shocks: Evidence Of Uneven Recovery In FDI Announcements
Reference ID
RR_WLD_2026_715
Author(s)
Hayley Pallan, Bram Gootjes
Collections
Metadata
Created on
Aug 04, 2026
Last modified
Aug 10, 2026
Page views
27
Downloads
3
Overview
Abstract
Despite heightened interest in the role of geopolitics and fragmentation for cross-border economic activity, our understanding of the potential scarring effects of adverse global conditions on foreign direct investment (FDI) is limited. Accounting for the real-time nature of investor decisions, local projection estimates show that adverse global growth shocks have scarring effects on FDI project announcements for about three years. Beyond the baseline finding, the paper offers three novel results: scarring effects are more subdued in “safe” countries; projects in “strategic” sectors smooth headline announcement fluctuations because they are less sensitive to adverse global growth shocks; and geopolitical positioning plays an important role in the uneven recovery of FDI announcements. The results are robust to a variety of additional exercises, including sample adjustments, alternative shock measures and specifications, and various definitions of institutions, sectors, and geopolitical alignment.
Reproducibility Package
Scripts
File name
RR_WLD_2026_715
Zip package
RR_WLD_2026_715.zip
Title
Reproducibility package for The Scars Of Global Growth Shocks: Evidence Of Uneven Recovery In FDI Announcements
Date
2026-08
Dependencies
Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
Instructions
See README in reproducibility package.
Notes
Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
Source code repository
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Software
Name
Stata
Version
19.5 MP
Reproducibility
Technology environment
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
– OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
– Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) GOLD 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz (2 processors)
– Memory available: 16 GB
Technology requirements
Run time: ~ 7 minutes
Reproduction instructions
To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:
- Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
- Run the Package: Update the working directory in line 11 of the do-file "master_file".
Since not all the data is included and the verification was done virtually, the package includes the results shared by the authors. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.
Data
Datasets
Name
World Bank Prospects Group Country Classifications
Note
Data accessed in February 2024. File locations: data/raw/PG_Aes_Feb2024.dta; data/raw/wb_classification24_ifcode.dta; data/raw/country_namescode.dta.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/prospects-group-analysis
Citation
World Bank. 2024. "Prospects Group Country Classifications" [dataset]. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/prospects-group-analysis. Accessed February 2024.
Name
fDi Markets Database
Note
Data accessed in March 2026. Indicators accessed: countries, years, sectors, and indicators for projects related to environmental technologies. File locations: data/raw/fDi Markets data Jan 10 - Dec 25 including company ID (IC Unit internal use only).xlsx; wp_replication/data/raw/fDi Markets data Jan2003 - Dec2022 (excluding intrastate).xlsx; data/raw/sectors_fdimarkets_2010.dta.
Access policy
Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
FT Specialist Terms and Conditions
License URL
https://terms.ftspecialist.com/
Data URL
https://www.fdimarkets.com/
Citation
FT Specialist. 2026. "fDi Markets Database" [dataset]. https://www.fdimarkets.com/. Accessed March 2026.
Name
World Development Indicators
Note
Indicators accessed: Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP and BoP, current US$). File location: wp_replication/data/raw/fdi_wdi_july2026.csv.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/legal/terms-of-use-for-datasets
Data URL
https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
Citation
World Bank. 2025. "World Development Indicators" [dataset]. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed November 2025.
Name
World Economic Outlook Database
Note
Indicators accessed: macroeconomic indicators (growth, prices, government accounts, external sector, debt) and international commodity prices (energy, food, metals, agricultural raw materials). File locations: wp_replication/data/raw/WEOhistorical_oct2025.xlsx; wp_replication/data/raw/WEOOCT2024alla.xlsx.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
The Use of IMF Data
License URL
https://www.imf.org/en/about/copyright-and-terms#data
Data URL
https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO
Citation
IMF. 2025. "World Economic Outlook Database" [dataset]. https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO. Accessed October 2025.
Name
Geopolitical Risk Index
Note
Indicators accessed: GPR Index and sub-indices: threats, acts, historical and recent series, category shares, and country-level indices for approximately 44 countries. File location: wp_replication/data/raw/data_gpr_export.dta.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm
Citation
Caldara, D. and Iacoviello, M. 2022. "Geopolitical Risk Index" [dataset]. https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm. Accessed June 2026.
Name
Federal Funds Effective Rate
Note
Indicators accessed: Federal Funds Effective Rate, percent, annual, not seasonally adjusted. File location: wp_replication/data/raw/RIFPFFNA.xlsx.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
FRED Terms of Use
License URL
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#full-fred-terms
Data URL
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Citation
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US). 2026. "Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS)" [dataset]. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS. Accessed June 2026.
Name
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
Note
Indicators accessed: daily VIX open, high, low, and close values. File location: wp_replication/data/raw/vix_data_daily.dta.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Terms and Conditions for Use of Cboe Websites
License URL
https://www.cboe.com/terms
Data URL
https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix/vix-historical-data/
Citation
Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). 2026. "CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)" [dataset]. https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix/vix-historical-data/. Accessed June 2026.
Name
Geopolitical Fragmentation Index
Note
Indicators accessed: quarterly geoeconomic fragmentation index with trade, financial, mobility, and political sub-components, and bloc-level (US-EU, China-Russia, others) measures. File location: wp_replication/data/raw/gfi_data_fernandezvilla.dta.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://geopol-fragmentation-index.com/
Citation
Fernández-Villaverde, J., Mineyama, T., and Song, D. 2024. "Geopolitical Fragmentation Index" [dataset]. https://geopol-fragmentation-index.com/. Accessed January 2025.
Name
World Uncertainty Index
Note
Indicators accessed: World Trade Uncertainty Index. File location: wp_replication/data/raw/wui.xlsx.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/
Citation
Ahir, H., Bloom, N., and Furceri, D. 2022. "World Uncertainty Index" [dataset]. https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/. Accessed January 2025.
Name
International Country Risk Guide (ICRG)
Note
Data accessed in February 2022. Indicators accessed: political risk scores by country and year. File location: wp_replication/data/raw/ICRG_ANNUAL_Feb_21_2022.dta.
Access policy
Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
Custom License
Data URL
https://www.prsgroup.com/explore-our-products/icrg/
Citation
The PRS Group. 2022. "International Country Risk Guide (ICRG)" [dataset]. https://www.prsgroup.com/explore-our-products/icrg/. Accessed February 2022.
Name
Political Constraint Index (POLCON) Dataset
Note
Indicators accessed: Political Constraint Index (POLCON), executive-legislative alignment and fragmentation measures, and detailed government party composition by country. File location: wp_replication/data/raw/POLCON_2021_VDEM.xlsx.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/faculty/heniszpolcon/polcondataset/
Citation
Henisz, W.J. 2021. "Political Constraint Index (POLCON) Dataset" [dataset]. Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. https://mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/faculty/heniszpolcon/polcondataset/. Accessed June 2026.
Name
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index
Note
Indicators accessed: measure of a country's degree of capital account openness, raw and normalized (0–1) versions, by country and year (1970–2021). File location: wp_replication/data/raw/kapoen_2021.dta.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://web.pdx.edu/~ito/Chinn-Ito_website.htm
Citation
Chinn, M. and Ito, H. 2008. "Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index" [dataset]. https://web.pdx.edu/~ito/Chinn-Ito_website.htm. Accessed June 2026.
Name
Data for 'Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?'
Note
Indicators accessed: country classifications and geopolitical bloc assignments (US-aligned, China-aligned, non-aligned) based on UN voting patterns, ideal point distance, and regional groupings. File location: wp_replication/data/raw/blocs.dta.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/hvxf2ghb38/1
Citation
Presbitero, A. 2024. "Data for 'Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?'" [dataset]. Mendeley Data, V1. https://doi.org/10.17632/hvxf2ghb38.1. Accessed June 2026.
Name
United Nations General Assembly Ideal Points
Note
Indicators accessed: country-year estimates of political alignment based on UN voting patterns, with posterior uncertainty percentiles, 1946–2024. File location: wp_replication/data/raw/IdealpointsJuly2025.dta.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
CC0 1.0 Universal (Public Domain)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Data URL
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/LEJUQZ
Citation
Voeten, E. 2025. "United Nations General Assembly Ideal Points" [dataset]. Harvard Dataverse, V38. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LEJUQZ. Accessed June 2026.
Data statement
Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.
Description
Output
Type
Working Paper
Title
The Scars Of Global Growth Shocks: Evidence Of Uneven Recovery In FDI Announcements
Description
Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
Authors
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Hayley Pallan | World Bank | hpallan@worldbank.org |
| Bram Gootjes | World Bank | bgootjes@worldbank.org |
Date of production
2026-08-04
Scope and coverage
Geographic locations
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| World | WLD |
Keywords
Foreign Direct Investment
Global Shocks
Political Risk
Geopolitics
Real-Time Data
Scarring Effects
Topics
Disclaimer
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
License
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| MIT License | https://opensource.org/license/mit |
| World Bank IGO Rider | https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md |
Contacts
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Hayley Pallan | World Bank | hpallan@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
Producers
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
Date of Production
2026-08-04
Document version
1