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Reproducibility package for Shock Propagation Diagnostic (SPD): Localized Impacts of Shocks and Policies

2026
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Reference ID
FR_KHM_2026_733
Author(s)
Juiong Wu, Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, Deeksha Kokas
Collections
Flagships and Reports
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JSON
Created on
Sep 30, 2026
Last modified
Oct 13, 2026
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25
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  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata

    • Overview

    Abstract

    Economic shocks such as commodity price volatility, climate disruptions, or large infrastructure investments reshape local labor markets. Understanding who is affected, where, and through which channels is essential for designing policies that promote shared prosperity and resilience. This report introduces the Shock Propagation Diagnostic (SPD), a reduced-form framework that combines shift-share (Bartik) exposure measures with input-output propagation to trace direct effects on exposed sectors and indirect spillovers through domestic production networks. The report showcases three country applications, Cambodia, Mongolia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, each supported by a replication package. Cambodia and DRC illustrate ex-ante scenario simulation, while Mongolia is the report's Tier 1 causal ex-post application: as a price taker in international commodity markets, Mongolia faces plausibly external price shocks that are combined with predetermined regional employment shares and before-and-after labor-market data. Earlier Brazil and Viet Nam studies are used only to illustrate prior Tier 1 applications of the approach. Across the three featured cases, supply-chain spillovers are quantitatively important, adjustment often operates through wages, hours, and informality, and distributional outcomes depend critically on initial economic structure. SPD is designed as an early-entry diagnostic tool that complements more complex models through a transparent, data-efficient lens for rapid deployment.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    FR_KHM_2026_733
    Zip package
    FR_KHM_2026_733.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Shock Propagation Diagnostic (SPD): Localized Impacts of Shocks and Policies
    Date
    2026-09
    Dependencies
    Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    19.5 MP
    Name
    Python
    Version
    3.9

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:

    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)
    • Memory available: 32.0 GB
    Technology requirements

    Run time: ~4 minutes
    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:

    1. Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
    2. Install Python dependencies: Install Python dependencies in requirements.txt
    3. Run the Package:
      • Update the working directory in line 21 of the do-file main, and run it.

    Since not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    Database for International Trade Analysis (BACI) at the Product-Level, HS 2022 version, release 202501
    Note
    File: Data/Raw/BACI_HS22_Y2023_V202501.csv. Additional citation: Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010) BACI: Database for International Trade Analysis at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version. CEPII Working Paper, N°2010-23.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Etalab Open Licence 2.0
    License URL
    https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf
    Data URL
    https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/legacy/202501/BACI_HS22_V202501.zip
    Citation
    Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII). "Database for International Trade Analysis (BACI) at the Product-Level, HS 2022 version, release 202501" [dataset]. https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/legacy/202501/BACI_HS22_V202501.zip. Accessed August 2025.
    Name
    World Integrated Trade Solution - Product Concordance
    Note
    File names: Data/Raw/hs22_hs12.dta and Data/Raw/hs12_isic3.dta. For more details, refer to the README file.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY 4.0) with additional terms of use specified in the license URL
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions
    Data URL
    https://wits.worldbank.org/product_concordance.html
    Citation
    World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), World Bank. n.d. "Product Concordance [dataset]". Accessed in April 2025. https://wits.worldbank.org/product_concordance.html. Accessed August 2025.
    Name
    Cambodia District-by-Industry Employment Shares, 2019/20
    Note
    File: Data/Input/2019_emp_share.dta. The dataset is derived from Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) 2019/20. It contains district × industry employment aggregates only, no person-level records. It was supplied to the authors by the World Bank Cambodia country team. Replicators can rebuild the dataset from the NIS microdata by writing a request to National Institute of Statistics (NIS), Ministry of Planning, Cambodia (info@nis.gov.kh; NADA contact page https://nada.nis.gov.kh/index.php/contact-us1) and signing the NIS licensed-data agreement, or through a World Bank data-sharing arrangement with NIS. For more details, refer to the README file.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    Data URL
    https://nada.nis.gov.kh/index.php/contact-us1
    Citation
    World Bank Cambodia Country Team. 2025. "Cambodia District-by-Industry Employment Shares, 2019/20." Unpublished data. Based on National Institute of Statistics, Ministry of Planning, Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) 2019/20. Accessed by the authors in August 2025.
    Name
    Cambodia Province-Level Wages, Employment, Population, and Thailand Returnee Counts, 2023–2025
    Note
    File: Data/Input/c23_province.csv. The dataset is derived from Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) 2023 and Cambodia's Ministry of Labour and Vocational Training (MoLVT) Monthly Employment Reports, July-October 2025 The authors obtained this data from the World Bank Cambodia country team in October 2025. Replicators d request acces to the file from the World Bank Cambodia country team (Kimsun Tong: ktong@worldbank.org) or rebuild it based on the process outlines in the README.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    Citation
    World Bank Cambodia Country Team. 2025. "Cambodia Province-Level Wages, Employment, Population, and Thailand Returnee Counts, 2023–2025" [dataset]. Based on Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) 2023, National Institute of Statistics, Ministry of Planning, Cambodia, and Ministry of Labour and Vocational Training (MoLVT), Cambodia, Monthly Employment Reports, July–October 2025. Accessed by the authors in October 2025.
    Name
    Mongolia Labour Force Survey Harmonized Person-Level File, 2010–2024
    Note
    File: Data/LFS_Clean/LFS10_24_INDIV_clean_main_indicators.dta. The dataset is a cleaned and harmonized pooled file derived from Mongolia's Labour Force Survey (LFS), quarterly person-level microdata, 2010–2024. Replicators can access raw data through Mongolia's Census and Survey Catalogue (http://web.nso.mn/nada/index.php/auth/login/?destination=catalog/193/get_microdata). Detailed step-by-step instructions on how to harmonize the data files are included in the README.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    NSO Microdata Terms and Conditions
    License URL
    http://web.nso.mn/nada/index.php/catalog/central/about
    Data URL
    http://web.nso.mn/nada/index.php/auth/login/?destination=catalog/193/get_microdata
    Citation
    Authors' compilation. 2026. "Mongolia Labour Force Survey Harmonized Person-Level File, 2010–2024" [dataset]. Based on Labour Force Surveys (2010–2024), National Statistical Office of Mongolia.
    Name
    External Sector Statistics
    Note
    Files: Data/Raw/Balance of Payments - Export (by level of processing)_2003-01-01_2025-09-01.xlsx and Data/Raw/Balance of Payments - Export (by quantity)_2003-01-01_2025-09-01.xlsx. Replicators can access raw data through the Statistics of Mongolia's portal (https://stat.mongolbank.mn/?lang=en). For more details, refer to the README file.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://stat.mongolbank.mn/external?lang=en
    Citation
    Bank of Mongolia. External sector statistics: Export (by level of processing) and Export (by quantity), monthly, January 2003 – September 2025 [data tables]. Ulaanbaatar: Bank of Mongolia. https://stat.mongolbank.mn/external?lang=en. Accessed October 2025.
    Name
    Mongolia National Consumer Price Index, Monthly (2010–2026)
    Note
    File: Data/Raw/cpi-national-monthly-en.csv. Replicators can access the data through the open data platform Data.mn (https://data.mn/en/data/cpi-national-monthly). For more details, refer to the README file.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Data.mn Terms of Service
    License URL
    https://data.mn/en/terms
    Data URL
    https://data.mn/en/data/cpi-national-monthly
    Citation
    National Statistics Office of Mongolia (2026). Consumer price index, national, monthly (2020 = 100), table DT_NSO_0600_001V3 [data set]. Distributed by Data.mn as "Mongolia National Consumer Price Index, Monthly (2010–2026)", https://data.mn/en/data/cpi-national-monthly. Accessed May 2026.
    Name
    Mongolia Input-Output Table 2010 (DT_NSO_3100_003V9)
    Note
    File: Data/Raw/iotable_2010.xlsx. The dataset is the 2010 input-output table of the National Statistics Office of Mongolia (table DT_NSO_3100_003V9), reshaped by the research team into long format. Replicators can download it from https://data.1212.mn/pxweb/en/NSO/NSO__Economy,%20environment__National%20Accounts/DT_NSO_3100_003V9.px by selecting all row and column activities and the year 2010. For more details, refer to the README file.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    CC BY 4.0
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://data.1212.mn/pxweb/en/NSO/NSO__Economy,%20environment__National%20Accounts/DT_NSO_3100_003V9.px
    Citation
    National Statistics Office of Mongolia (n.d.). Input-output table, by non-competitive import type, 2010 (table DT_NSO_3100_003V9) [data table]. Ulaanbaatar: NSO. https://data.1212.mn/pxweb/en/NSO/NSO__Economy,%20environment__National%20Accounts/DT_NSO_3100_003V9.px. Accessed November 2025.
    Name
    Mongolia Subnational Administrative Boundaries (COD-AB), admin level 1
    Note
    Files: Data/Geospatial/adm1.*. The dataset is the admin level 1 subnational administrative boundaries of Mongolia (COD-AB), published by OCHA on the Humanitarian Data Exchange with the National Statistics Office of Mongolia as the boundary source. The copy in the package was re-exported by the research team in ArcGIS with renamed attribute fields and is geometrically identical to the source layer. Replicators can download it from https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-mng, taking mng_admin1.shp from the mng_admin_boundaries.shp.zip resource. For more details, refer to the README file.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution for Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY-IGO)
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
    Data URL
    https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-mng
    Citation
    OCHA Field Information Services Section and National Statistical Office of Mongolia (2020, updated 2025). "Mongolia – Subnational Administrative Boundaries (COD-AB)" [dataset]. Humanitarian Data Exchange, https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-mng. Accessed August 2025.
    Name
    Democratic Republic of the Congo Lobito Corridor analysis file
    Note
    File: Data/Input/lobito_analysis_data.dta. The dataset is an authors' compilation that combines the 2024 Enquête sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages (ECVM) baseline structure with the input-output table of the Institut National de la Statistique (INS) of the Democratic Republic of Congo and calibration and scenario parameters estimated from the literature. It contains province- and sector-level aggregates only, with no household-level records, and is produced by Code/RUN_LOBITO_TABLE6.do. The underlying ECVM 2024 microdata are restricted and can be requested from INS DR Congo. For more details, refer to the README file.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    Citation
    Authors' compilation. 2026. "DRC Lobito Corridor analysis file" [dataset]. Based on Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Democratic Republic of Congo, Enquête sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages (ECVM) 2024, and the INS input-output table for the Democratic Republic of Congo.
    Data statement

    Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Flagship Report
    Title
    Shock Propagation Diagnostic (SPD): Localized Impacts of Shocks and Policies
    Description
    Prosperity Publication
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Juiong Wu University of Ohio jwuj0316@gmail.com
    Gladys Lopez-Acevedo World Bank gacevedo@worldbank.org
    Deeksha Kokas NTU Singapore deeksha002@e.ntu.edu.sg
    Date of production

    2026-09-18

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    Cambodia KHM
    Keywords
    Economic Shocks Labor Markets Shift-Share Analysis Bartik Instruments Input-Output Analysis Production Networks Commodity Price Volatility Informality Distributional Analysis Shock Propagation Spillovers Resilience
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    J46 Informal Labor Markets J4 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    R23 Regional Migration • Regional Labor Markets • Population • Neighborhood Characteristics R2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    D57 Input–Output Tables and Analysis D5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    E24 Employment • Unemployment • Wages • Intergenerational Income Distribution • Aggregate Human Capital • Aggregate Labor Productivity E2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    F16 Trade and Labor Market Interactions F1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    MIT License https://opensource.org/license/mit
    World Bank IGO Rider https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Gladys Lopez-Acevedo World Bank gacevedo@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-09-18
    Document version

    1
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