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Reproducibility package for Exact and Approximate Component VaR and Expected Shortfall for Quadratic Normal Portfolios: Fourier, Saddlepoint, Cornish–Fisher, and Frozen–Multiplier Allocations, with Marginal Higher–Moment Attribution and a Convexity–Gradie

2026
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Reference ID
RR_WLD_2026_782
Author(s)
Michal Certik
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Oct 21, 2026
Last modified
Nov 04, 2026
Page views
21
Downloads
24
  • Project Description
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  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata
  • Overview

    Abstract

    We study analytic Value–at–Risk (VaR) and its decomposition for portfolios whose profit and loss is a quadratic (delta–gamma) function of jointly Gaussian risk–factor changes,ΔP = δ⊤Δx + Δx⊤ΓΔx with Δx ∼ N(0,Σ). Any risk functional positively homogeneous of degree one in the sensitivity pair (δ,Γ) is Euler–additive across the deltas and the ordered gamma pairs, cross–gammas included, and we compare four allocations on this common footing. Within the quadratic–Gaussian model the exact VaR allocation consists of conditional moments of the factors given the loss, and the exact Expected Shortfall allocation of tail conditional moments, both computed by one–dimensional Fourier inversion. The saddlepoint allocation is exactly additive because the Lugannani–Rice quantile is scale–equivariant. The fourth–order Cornish–Fisher allocation reduces to trace and matrix expressions evaluable in O(n3) arithmetic, and near a linear book its quantile agrees with the exact quantile to second order in the convexity, which requires the squared–skewness term. Frozen–multiplier schemes, which scale variance shares by one portfolio multiplier, are additive but omit the marginal skewness and kurtosis terms; these form a zero–sum redistribution. Using the trace–square gradient tr(ΓΣ)Σ in place of ΣΓΣ breaks additivity by a closed–form amount, diagonal gamma matrices included. Finally, a moment constraint on the exact marginals detects allocations that add up correctly yet give hedge signals of the wrong sign.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Readme Get Reproducibility Package
    Link: https://reproducibility.worldbank.org/catalog/678/download/2042/README.pdf
    Reproducibility package for Exact and Approximate Component VaR and Expected Shortfall for Quadratic Normal Portfolios: Fourier, Saddlepoint, Cornish–Fisher, and Frozen–Multiplier Allocations, with Marginal Higher–Moment Attribution and a Convexity–Gradient Correction
    File name
    RR_WLD_2026_782
    Zip package
    RR_WLD_2026_782.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Exact and Approximate Component VaR and Expected Shortfall for Quadratic Normal Portfolios: Fourier, Saddlepoint, Cornish–Fisher, and Frozen–Multiplier Allocations, with Marginal Higher–Moment Attribution and a Convexity–Gradient Correction
    Date
    2026-10
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Python
    Name
    Python
    Version
    3.12

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 5218 CPU @ 2.30GHz (2.30 GHz) (2 processors)
    • Memory available: 16.0 GB

    Technology requirements

    Run time: ~3 minutes.

    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in the paper, restore the environment in requirements.txt and execute the python script "main".

    Data

    Data statement

    The package does not rely on external data. All inputs are defined in the code using parameters and formulas printed in the paper (Section 10.2, Examples 1 and 2, Section 7.4 and Appendix H).

    Description

    Output
    Exact and Approximate Component VaR and Expected Shortfall for Quadratic Normal Portfolios: Fourier, Saddlepoint, Cornish–Fisher, and Frozen–Multiplier Allocations, with Marginal Higher–Moment Attribution and a Convexity–Gradient Correction
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Exact and Approximate Component VaR and Expected Shortfall for Quadratic Normal Portfolios: Fourier, Saddlepoint, Cornish–Fisher, and Frozen–Multiplier Allocations, with Marginal Higher–Moment Attribution and a Convexity–Gradient Correction
    Description
    Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Michal Certik World Bank mcertik@worldbank.org
    Date of production

    2026-10-20

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    World WLD
    Keywords
    Value-At-Risk Expected Shortfall Risk Contributions Euler Allocation Delta-Gamma Approximation Cornish-Fisher Expansion Saddlepoint Approximation Quadratic Forms In Normal Variables
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    C46 Specific Distributions • Specific Statistics C4 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    C58 Financial Econometrics C5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    C63 Computational Techniques • Simulation Modeling C6 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    G17 Financial Forecasting and Simulation G1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    G32 Financing Policy • Financial Risk and Risk Management • Capital and Ownership Structure • Value of Firms • Goodwill G3 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    MIT License https://opensource.org/license/mit
    World Bank IGO Rider https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Michal Certik The World Bank Group mcertik@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-10-20

    Document version

    1

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