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PRWP

Bridging the Gap in Trade Reporting: Insights from the Discrepancy Index

2024
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Reference ID
RR_WLD_2024_111
DOI
https://doi.org/10.60572/6g58-5g38
Author(s)
Siddhesh Vishwanath Kaushik, Sonja Mitikj
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
May 23, 2024
Last modified
May 23, 2024
  • Project Description
  • Downloads
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata
  • Citation
  • Overview

    Abstract

    Accurate trade data remains central for empirical investigations of international trade and informed formulation of trade policies. However, discrepancies in trade reporting, stemming from reasons such as logistics all the way to deliberate misclassification, pose challenges to obtaining an accurate representation of trade activities. This study provides a systematic examination of these discrepancies by using the Discrepancy Index (DI), a measure of bilateral asymmetry in trade reporting. First, we propose a rich set of country- and product-level indicators that capture both the frequency of misreporting and its impact on the overall recorded trade value. Second, we demonstrate how the discrepancy index database can aid analysis and resolve data reliability issues in international trade. Using this comprehensive dataset, we analyze the general trends in trade data reporting and its reliability, providing empirical insights into the nature and extent of reporting discrepancies. Finally, we demonstrate the practical application of the developed discrepancy database and aggregate indicators through case studies for Senegal, and the Madagascar– France trade relationship, shedding light on reporter-specific instances. This paper seeks to equip trade analysts and researchers with tools and resources to make informed decisions concerning the use of reported trade data and its mirror. In doing so, this study contributes to the broader endeavor of enhancing the reliability of international trade data, thereby contributing to a more accurate empirical investigation of global trade patterns and their policy ramifications.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Readme Get Reproducibility Package
    Link: https://reproducibility.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/145/download/393/README.pdf
    Reproducibility Package for Bridging the Gap in Trade Reporting: Insights from the Discrepancy Index
    Title
    Reproducibility Package for Bridging the Gap in Trade Reporting: Insights from the Discrepancy Index
    Date
    2024-05
    Software
    Python
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by the Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Software
    Python
    Name
    Python
    Version
    3.10.12

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Follow the instructions in README.

    Technology requirements

    1 hour runtime

    Reproduction instructions
    • Databricks Runtime Version: 14.3 LTS (includes Apache Spark 3.5.0, Scala 2.12)
    • Worker Type: Standard_E4ds_v4 (32 GB Memory, 4 cores)

    Data

    Datasets
    UNSD’s Comtrade annual database
    Name
    UNSD’s Comtrade annual database
    Note
    Referenced as dianapublic.unsd_wits_annual. The data was accessed on 18-Oct-23. Detailed global bilateral trade data in the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) and Harmonized System (HS) product classification.
    Access policy
    The dataset is public but not incluced in the reproducibility package. The data access is free up to 100,000 rows per download.
    Data URL
    comtradeplus.un.org
    CEPII Gravity database (Conte et al., 2022)
    Name
    CEPII Gravity database (Conte et al., 2022)
    Note
    Referenced as diana.cepii_gravity_202211. The data was accessed on 11-Nov-22. Different measures of bilateral distances.
    Access policy
    The dataset is public but not included in the package.
    Data URL
    cepii.fr
    World Bank Statistical Performance Indicators
    Name
    World Bank Statistical Performance Indicators
    Note
    Referenced as default.spi_index. The data was accessed on 7-Nov-23. Statistical Performance Indicators that assess the maturity and performance of national statistical systems.
    Access policy
    The dataset is public but not included in the package.
    Data URL
    https://github.com/worldbank/SPI
    World Bank Development Indicator
    Name
    World Bank Development Indicator
    Note
    Referenced as diana.wdi_gdp. The data was accessed on 7-Nov-23. GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2017 international $).
    Access policy
    The dataset is public but not included in the package.
    Data URL
    https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/
    WCO Data
    Name
    WCO Data
    Note
    Referenced as diana.productlist. The data was accessed on 3-Feb-24. The product names and structure of the Harmonized System method of classifying traded products.
    Access policy
    The dataset is public but not included in the package.
    Data URL
    wcoomd.org
    GNI per capita in current USD
    Name
    GNI per capita in current USD
    Note
    Referenced as diana.income_region_country_list. The data was accessed on 3-Feb-22. Historical data for income classification, based on GNI per capita in current USD, using the Atlas method
    Access policy
    The dataset is public but not included in the package.
    Data URL
    datacatalog.worldbank.org
    Data statement

    The Discrepancy Index and the aggregate indicators were generated using UN COMTRADE database (https://comtradeplus.un.org/). World Bank has access to this database and we replicated the data in DataBricks using the Bulk API. To obtain UN COMTRADE data, please visit https://shop.un.org/databases to check how you can access the data. Please note based on UNSD terms you may have to pay a subscription to get access to this data. The output is avaiable via World Bank Data Catalog and the links are provided below. All databases are open and available using license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.
    All the other datasets are public and available for free.
    All datasets are publicly available but not included in the package.

    Description

    Output
    Bridging the Gap in Trade Reporting: Insights from the Discrepancy Index
    Type
    Working paper
    Title
    Bridging the Gap in Trade Reporting: Insights from the Discrepancy Index
    Authors
    Sonja Mitikj, Siddhesh Kaushik
    Description
    Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Role Affiliation Email
    Siddhesh Vishwanath Kaushik Senior Data Scientist World Bank skaushik@worldbank.org
    Sonja Mitikj Research Analyst World Bank smitikj@worldbank.org
    Date of production

    2024-05

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    World WLD

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Siddhesh Vishwanath Kaushik World Bank skaushik@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DIME World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2024-05

    Document version

    1

    Citation

    Citation
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