{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DIME","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"Working Paper: 2024-04-22; Journal Article: 2025-05-09","version":"2"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Adam Michael Bauer","email":"adammb4@illinois.edu","affiliation":"University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign"},{"name":"Florent McIsaac","email":"fmcisaac@worldbank.org","affiliation":"World Bank"},{"name":"St\u00e9phane Hallegatte","email":"shallegatte@worldbank.org","affiliation":"World Bank"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","title":"How Delayed Learning about Climate Uncertainty Impacts Decarbonization Investment Strategies","uri":"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099829103282438373\/IDU1f2d86d77127091490d1a6df1dc342f15d10b","doi":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1596\/1813-9450-10743","authors":" Adam Michael Bauer, Florent McIsaac, and Hallegatte St\u00e9phane","description":"Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) 10743"},{"type":"Journal Article","title":"Decarbonization Investment Strategies in an Uncertain Climate","authors":"Adam Michael Bauer Florent McIsaac , and St\u00e9phane Hallegatte","description":"Forthcoming in Earth\u2019s Future"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Carbon Budget Data","note":"Source: Dvorak et al., 2022","uri":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01372-y","access_type":"Published with package"},{"name":"Marginal Abatement Costs and Abatement Potentials Data","uri":"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg3\/downloads\/report\/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf","note":"Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report","access_type":"Published with package"},{"name":"Capital Depreciation Rates Data","note":"Source: Philibert, C., 2007","access_type":"Published with package","uri":"https:\/\/www.osti.gov\/etdeweb\/biblio\/20962174"},{"name":"Social Discount Rate","note":"Source:  Drupp et al., 2018","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/articles?id=10.1257\/pol.20160240"}],"scripts":[{"file_name":"RR_WLD_2024_106.zip","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2024_106.zip","title":"Reproducibility package for Working Paper - How Delayed Learning about Climate Uncertainty Impacts Decarbonization Investment Strategies","date":"2024-04","dependencies":"All dependencies are stored in the delayed_learning_reprod_env.yml file contained in the reproducibility package. Users can recreate the environment by moving to the directory using the terminal, running \"conda env create -f delayed_learning_reprod_env.yml\", followed by \"conda activate wbg\"","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank."},{"file_name":"PP_WLD_2025_340.zip","zip_package":"PP_WLD_2025_340.zip","title":"Reproducibility package for Journal Article - Decarbonization Investment Strategies in an Uncertain Climate","date":"2025-05","dependencies":"All dependencies are stored in the delayed_learning_reprod_env.yml file contained in the reproducibility package. Users can recreate the environment by moving to the directory using the terminal, running \"conda env create -f delayed_learning_reprod_env.yml\", followed by \"conda activate wbg\"","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank."}],"title_statement":{"idno":"RR_WLD_2024_106","title":"Reproducibility package for How Delayed Learning about Climate Uncertainty Impacts Decarbonization Investment Strategies","identifiers":[{"type":"DOI","identifier":"10.60572\/0jyn-4x43"}]},"production_date":"Working Paper: 2024-04; Journal Article: 2025-05","abstract":"The Paris Agreement established that global warming should be limited to \u201cwell below\u201d 2 \u25e6C and encouraged efforts to limit warming to 1.5 \u25e6C. Achieving this goal presents a challenge, especially given (i) adjustment costs, which penalize a swift transition away from fossil fuels owing to, e.g., skilled labor scarcity, and (ii) climate uncertainty that complicates the link between emissions reductions and global warming. This paper presents a modeling framework that explores optimal decarbonization investment strategies with adjustment costs and climate uncertainty. The findings show that climate uncertainty impacts investment in three ways: (i) the cost of policy increases, especially when adjustment costs are present; (ii) abatement investment is front-loaded relative to a scenario without uncertainty; and (iii) the sectors with the largest changes in investment are those that are \u201chard-to-abate\u201d, such as heavy industry and agriculture, each of which have high investment costs and annual emission rates. The longer learning about climate uncertainty is delayed, the more these impacts are amplified. Each of these effects can be traced back to the carbon price distribution inheriting a \u201cheavy tail\u201d when climate uncertainty is present. The paper highlights how climate uncertainty and adjustment costs combined lead to heightened urgency for near-term investments in decarbonization.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD","type":"Region"}],"keywords":[{"name":"green investment"},{"name":"adjustment costs"},{"name":"stochastic modeling"},{"name":"climate risk"},{"name":"carbon price"}],"topics":[{"id":"E10","parent_id":"E1","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","name":"General Aggregative Models \u2022 General"},{"id":"Q50","parent_id":"Q5","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","name":"Environmental Economics \u2022 General"},{"id":"Q54","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","name":"Climate \u2022 Natural Disasters and Their Management \u2022 Global Warming","parent_id":"Q5"},{"id":"Q58","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","name":"Government Policy","parent_id":"Q5"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"},{"type":"Github","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/adam-bauer-34\/BMH-delayed-learning-reprod\/","name":"BMH-delayed-learning-reprod"}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise, version 21H2\n\u2022 Processor: Processor\tIntel(R) Core(TM) Ultra 7 165U, 2100 Mhz, 12 Core(s), 14 Logical Processor(s)\n\u2022 Memory available: 32 GB\n\u2022 Software version: Python 3.12, Gurobi 12.0.1","technology_requirements":"~4 hours runtime","reproduction_instructions":"To replicate this package, please follow these steps:\n1. **Set up the environment**  \n   Install the required dependencies and activate the correct computing environment as described in the `README`.\n2. **Install Gurobi and obtain an academic license**  \n   - Register for an academic license and download the Gurobi Optimizer at [gurobi.com](https:\/\/www.gurobi.com\/downloads\/).  \n   - Follow Gurobi\u2019s installation and license activation instructions.  \n3. **Run the replication scripts sequentially**   Use the provided Bash scripts in order, as listed in the README file.  \n\n**Note**: If you are unable to obtain or install Gurobi, the outputs produced by the replicator are included in the packages for reference.\n  ","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT license","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Adam Michael Bauer","affiliation":"University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign","email":"adammb4@illinois.edu"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","software":[{"name":"Python","version":"Working Paper: 3.9; Journal Article 3.12"},{"name":"Gurobi","version":"Working Paper: 11.0.1; Journal Article: 12.0.1"}],"version_statement":{"version":"2"}},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open Data"}],"schematype":"script"}