{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DIME","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2024-05-16","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"\u017deljko Bogeti\u0107","email":"zbogetic@worldbank.org","affiliation":"World Bank"},{"name":"Dominik Naeher","affiliation":"University of Goettingen","email":"dnaeher@uni-goettingen.de"}],"output":[{"type":"Working paper","description":"Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) 10959","title":"Is Escaping the Fiscal Pro-Cyclicality Trap Possible? Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa","uri":"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099243210282437181\/IDU170d79eb315c39148a51975412b664ad95717","doi":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1596\/1813-9450-10959"}],"datasets":[{"name":"IMF's World Economic Outlook 2023","uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/weo-database\/2023\/October","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package","note":"Variables used: annual data for general government revenue (percent of GDP) and general government total expenditure (percent of GDP). Data was accessed in December 2023. Data file: \"WEOOct2023all.xlsx\"."},{"name":"IMF\u2019s World Revenue Longitudinal Dataset 2022","note":"Variables used: annual data for tax revenue (percent of GDP). Data was accessed in December 2023. Data file: \"IMF_WoRLD STATA File 1990-2021 (wide).dta\".","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/data.imf.org\/?sk=77413f1d-1525-450a-a23a-47aeed40fe78"},{"name":"World Bank\u2019s World Development Indicators","note":"Variables used: annual data for subsidies including grants and other social benefits (percent of GDP), real GDP (constant local currency unit, LCU), real GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$), and government expenditures (percent of GDP). Data was accessed in December 2023. Data files: \"Expense (% of GDP).xls\", \"GDP per capita (constant 2015 USD).xls\", \"Real GDP LCU.xls\", \"Subsidies (% Expenses).xlsx\".","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators"}],"software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"18"}],"scripts":[{"file_name":"RR_MNA_2024_137-v01","zip_package":"RR_MNA_2024_137-v01.zip","date":"2024-05","dependencies":"Stata: egenmore (from SSC). Dependency files for Stata are included in the folder \"ado\".","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank.","title":"Reproducibility package for Is Escaping the Fiscal Pro-Cyclicality Trap Possible?  Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa"}],"title_statement":{"idno":"RR_MNA_2024_137","title":"Reproducibility package for Is Escaping the Fiscal Pro-Cyclicality Trap Possible? Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa"},"production_date":"2024-05","abstract":"This paper analyzes fiscal policy cyclicality, with a specific focus on the MENA region known for its significant output volatility, providing new and more granular evidence on the direction, intensity, and specific fiscal sources of cyclicality. Based on annual data covering 184 countries from 2000 to 2022, our findings suggest that there are important differences in the assessment of countercyclical fiscal policy achievements among different fiscal policy variables, across world regions, and also within the MENA region. While the global associations between fiscal cyclicality and income levels remained relatively stable, MENA countries exhibited diverse performances, some transitioning towards countercyclicality and others moving away from it. We also identify several MENA countries that successfully shifted from procyclical to countercyclical fiscal policy, breaking free from the \u201cfiscal pro-cyclicality trap\u201d. To understand more specific fiscal sources of cyclicality, examining subcomponents of revenues and expenditure, we observe that non-tax revenues exhibit a greater degree of procyclicality than tax revenues, and subsidy expenditures tend to be less countercyclical than other fiscal expenditures. This has policy implications and adds a dimension of assessment to subsidies not addressed in the literature: subsidies, being less countercyclical than other expenditures in MENA, do not contribute to macroeconomic stability and long-term growth through this channel, independent of their adverse efficiency, distributional, and fiscal space effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings aimed at improving countercyclicality in fiscal policy.","geographic_units":[{"code":"MENA","name":"Middle East and North Africa"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Fiscal policy"},{"name":"Business cycle"},{"name":"Procyclicality"},{"name":"Countercyclicality"},{"name":"MENA"}],"topics":[{"id":"E32","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","parent_id":"E3","name":"Business Fluctuations \u2022 Cycles "},{"id":"E62","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Fiscal Policy \u2022 Modern Monetary Theory","parent_id":"E6"},{"id":"H20","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - General","parent_id":"H2"},{"id":"O23","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development","parent_id":"O2"}],"data_statement":"All datasets used are public and included in the reproducibility package","repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: 30 minutes","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced in a computer with the following specifications:\n- OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n- Processor: Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-1145G7 CPU @ 2.60GHz\n- Memory available: 15.7 GB\n- Software version: Stata version 18","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3 ","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Dominik Naeher","affiliation":"University of Goettingen","email":"dnaeher@uni-goettingen.de"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org","affiliation":"World Bank"}]},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"}],"schematype":"script"}