{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DIME","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2024-06-24","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Steve Penson","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"spenson@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Mathijs Lomme ","email":"mathijs.lomme@acaps.org","affiliation":"World Bank, ACAPS"},{"name":"Bo Pieter Johannes Andree","email":"bandree@worldbank.org","affiliation":"World Bank"},{"name":"Zacharey Austin Carmichael ","email":"zcarmichael@worldbank.org","affiliation":"World Bank"},{"name":"Alemu Manni","email":" alemu.Manni@fao.org","affiliation":"World Bank"},{"name":"Sudeep Shrestha","affiliation":"ACAPS","email":"sds@acaps.org"}],"output":[{"type":"Working paper","title":"A Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis","description":"Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) WPS10768","uri":"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099709505092462162","doi":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1596\/1813-9450-10768"}],"datasets":[{"name":"FEWS NET Food Security data (2024)","note":"Source: FEWS NET. Filename: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/FEWS February 2024 Update TrueBoundaries_04-19-24.csv\". Data was accessed in April 2024.\n","uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/search\/dataset\/0064614","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0"},{"name":"Yemen: Acute Food Insecurity Country Data","note":"Source: The IPC Acute Food Insecurity (IPC AFI) classification. Filename: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/ipc_district_2018-2023.csv\". Data was accessed in July 2023. The file used for the reproducibility package was manually collapsed by district and groups of months (in the column \"Analysis Period\") from the file \"ipc_yem_area_wide.csv\", which is available for download in the data URL.\n\n","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/data.humdata.org\/dataset\/b70c2734-2339-4a4d-a69d-fa2bd3225156","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/deed.en","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license"},{"name":"FAO Yemen Agricultural Calendar (2023)","note":"Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Filename: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/AgricultualCalendar_Yemen_V2.xlsx\". Data was received from Alemu Manni from FAO (Alemu.Manni@fao.org) in July 2023.","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package"},{"name":"Rainfall and SPI data","note":"Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Filename: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/dump_ye_rainfall_and_spi_data.csv\". Data was received from Alemu Manni from FAO (Alemu.Manni@fao.org) in July 2023.","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package"},{"name":"Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)","uri":"https:\/\/acleddata.com","access_type":"Raw ACLED data cannot be redistributed. Replicators must review the terms of use in the license URL and download the data in the data URL. The dataset is updated weekly and it's possible that data points will not be exactly the same as used by the authors.","note":"Source: ACLED. Filename: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/original_acled_conflict.csv\". The filename used contains conflict events for Yemen during January 2015 until July 2023. Data was accessed in July 2023.","license_uri":"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/terms-of-use\/"},{"name":"Monthly food price estimates by product and market","uri":"https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/4483","note":"Variable used: food prices, only for Yemen. Data was received over email from the dataset authors on July 2023 along with the datasets Monthly energy price estimates by product and market and Monthly currency exchange rate estimates by market in a wide format by day and market. The dataset can be accessed through the dataset API URL: https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/index.php\/api\/tables\/data\/fcv\/wld_2021_rtfp_v02_m or in the data URL below. Filename: Located at: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/world_bank_market_prices.csv\".","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Open data access","license_uri":"https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/index.php\/terms-of-use"},{"license_uri":"https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/index.php\/terms-of-use","note":"Variable used: fuel prices, only for Yemen. Data was received over email from the dataset authors on July 2023 along with the datasets Monthly food price estimates by product and market and Monthly currency exchange rate estimates by market in a wide format by day and market. The dataset can be accessed through the dataset API URL: https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/index.php\/api\/tables\/data\/FCV\/WLD_2023_RTEP_v01_M or in the data URL below. Filename: Located at: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/world_bank_market_prices.csv\".","name":"Monthly energy price estimates by product and market","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Open data access","uri":"https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/6134"},{"uri":"https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/6160","name":"Monthly currency exchange rate estimates by market","license_uri":"https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/index.php\/terms-of-use","note":"Variable used: exchange rate, only for Yemen. Data was received over email from the dataset authors on July 2023 along with the datasets Monthly energy price estimates by product and market and Monthly food price estimates by product and market in a wide format by day and market. The dataset can be accessed through the dataset API URL: https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/index.php\/api\/tables\/data\/FCV\/WLD_2023_RTFX_v01_M or in the data URL below. Filename: Located at: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/world_bank_market_prices.csv\".","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Open data access"},{"name":"Telegram Exchange Rate from the Yemen Economic Tracking Initiative","note":"Data was accessed on July 2023 with the API URL call: https:\/\/yemen.yeti.acaps.org\/api\/telegram_exchange_rates\/?format=csv+%28non-paginated%29. Data file: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/api_telegram_exchange_rates.csv\".","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/yemen.yeti.acaps.org\/","license":"Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"},{"uri":"https:\/\/data.humdata.org\/dataset\/7907439a-0138-4b8e-a4cf-4f0233e0d694\/resource\/5a30f36a-aa4c-4261-a24b-22bda7639e4c\/","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package","name":"Yemen Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at Subnational level","note":"Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) & WFP. Filename: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/yem-ndvi-adm2-full.csv\". Data was accessed in July 2023.\n","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/deed.en"},{"name":"Yemen Rainfall Indicators at Subnational Level ","note":"Source: WFP. Filename: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/yem-rainfall-adm2-full.csv\". Data was accessed in July 2023.","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/data.humdata.org\/dataset\/902bd76c-3f3c-42ad-8547-f9c31deb7937\/resource\/8ebd5130-715e-4bc9-920c-773d461b0754","license":" Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/deed.en"},{"name":"Yemen - Baseline Assessment Round 37 (IOM)","note":"Data file: \"iom\/DTM_YEMEN_Round_37_November_2018.xlsx\". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/sites\/g\/files\/tmzbdl1461\/files\/datasets\/DTM_YEMEN_Round_37_November_2018.xlsx.","uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/datasets\/yemen-baseline-assessment-round-37","access_type":"Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.","license_uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products"},{"name":"Yemen \u2014 Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (25 June - 01 July 2023) (IOM)","access_type":"Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.","license_uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products","uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/datasets\/yemen-rapid-displacement-tracking-dataset-25-june-01-july-2023","note":"Data file: \"iom\/20230704_RDT Dataset- 25 June 2023 - 01 July 2023 External District Level.xlsx\". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/sites\/g\/files\/tmzbdl1461\/files\/datasets\/20230704_RDT%20Dataset-%2025%20June%202023%20-%2001%20July%202023%20External%20District%20Level.xlsx"},{"name":"Yemen \u2014 Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (25 - 31 December 2022) (IOM)","access_type":"Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.","license_uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products","uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/datasets\/yemen-rapid-displacement-tracking-dataset-25-31-december-2022","note":"Data file: \"iom\/20230102_RDT Dataset- 25 December 2022 - 31 December 2022 External District Level.xlsx\". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/sites\/g\/files\/tmzbdl1461\/files\/datasets\/20230102_RDT%20Dataset-%2025%20December%202022%20-%2031%20December%202022%20External%20District%20Level.xlsx"},{"name":"Yemen \u2014 Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (02 - 08 January 2022) (IOM)","uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/datasets\/yemen-rapid-displacement-tracking-dataset-02-08-january-2022","license_uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products","access_type":"Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.","note":"Data file: \"iom\/20220109_RDT_Weekly Update- 02 January 2022 - 09 January 2022 External District Level.xlsx\". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/sites\/g\/files\/tmzbdl1461\/files\/datasets\/20220109_RDT_Weekly%20Update-%2002%20January%202022%20-%2009%20January%202022%20External%20District%20Level.xlsx"},{"license_uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products","access_type":"Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.","uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/datasets\/yemen-%E2%80%94-rapid-displacement-tracking-dataset-01-january-05-december-2020","name":"Yemen \u2014 Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (01 January - 05 December 2020) (IOM)","note":"Data file: \"iom\/Yemen - Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (01 January - 05 Dec 2020).xlsx\". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/sites\/g\/files\/tmzbdl1461\/files\/datasets\/Yemen%20-%20Rapid%20Displacement%20Tracking%20Dataset%20%2801%20January%20-%2005%20Dec%202020%29.xlsx."},{"uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/datasets\/yemen-%E2%80%94-rapid-displacement-tracking-dataset-01-jan-02-nov-2019","name":"Yemen \u2014 Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (01 Jan to 30 Nov 2019) (IOM)","license_uri":"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products","access_type":"Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.","note":"Data file: \"iom\/DTM Yemen_ Rapid Displacement Tracking (RDT) Dataset _01 Jan to 30 Nov 2019.xlsx\". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/sites\/g\/files\/tmzbdl1461\/files\/datasets\/DTM%20Yemen_%20Rapid%20Displacement%20Tracking%20%28RDT%29%20Dataset%20_01%20Jan%20to%2030%20Nov%202019.xlsx"},{"name":"Yemen Agriculture Zone by Level-2 Administrative Area","note":"Data was received from Alemu Manni from FAO (Alemu.Manni@fao.org) in July 2023. Filename: \"data\/preparing master dataset\/lookupagri_zone_type.csv\".","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package"},{"name":"Yemen - Subnational Administrative Boundaries","note":"Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Data was accessed in May 2023. Geographic data from this dataset (\u201cyem_adm_govyem_cso_ochayemen_20191002_GPKG.zip\u201d, available for download in the data URL) was manually merged with other datasets of the project to produce the files \"lookup\/acled_pcodes.csv\", \"lookup\/adm2_correction-Grid view.csv\", \"lookup\/ipc_pcodes.csv\", and \"lookup\/yemen_pcodes.csv\". This data was also manually processed in QGIS to produce datasets with neighboring areas in the files \"lookup\/neighbouring_adm2_1deg.csv\" and \"lookup\/neighbouring_adm2_2deg.csv\" and to produce datasets with spatial joins in \"lookup\/world_bank_fews_pcodes.csv\" and \"lookup\/yemen_adm2_population.csv\".","uri":"https:\/\/data.humdata.org\/dataset\/cod-ab-yem","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/deed.en","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package"},{"name":"High Resolution Population Density Maps from Facebook","uri":"https:\/\/dataforgood.facebook.com\/dfg\/tools\/high-resolution-population-density-maps","note":"Source: Data for Good at Meta. Data for Yemen is not available for download in the data URL. The team received the data for Yemen from Alex Pompe from Meta (alexpompe@fb.com) in July 2023. The data was manually processed in QGIS by mapping it to geographic district data from OCHA and collapsing it at the district and date level, producing the file \"lookup\/yemen_adm2_population.csv\u201d. This file is not included in the reproducibility package. The README contains more information on how to re-create it for replicators with access to the data for Yemen.","access_type":"Data is restricted. Users must contact Meta to gain access to the data."},{"name":"Yemen: Areas of control","uri":"https:\/\/data.humdata.org\/m\/dataset\/yemen-areas-of-control?","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/deed.en","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package","note":"Source: ACAPS. Data was accessed in June 2023. Data was manually collapsed by the district for the faction controlling the area (column \"actors\") and the monetary system used (column \"irg_or_dfa\") in June 2023 to produce the file \"lookups\/yemen_areas_of_control_adm2.csv\", which is included in the reproducibility package."}],"software":[{"name":"Python","version":"3.10"},{"name":"Power BI","version":"2.103.881.0 64-bit (March 2022)"}],"scripts":[{"file_name":"RR_YEM_2024_139","zip_package":"RR_YEM_2024_139.zip","title":"Reproducibility package (code and partial data) for A Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank.","dependencies":"Python: 61 dependencies are used. They are listed with their corresponding version in the file \"requirements.txt\" of the reproducibility package."}],"title_statement":{"idno":"RR_YEM_2024_139","title":"Reproducibility package for A Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis"},"abstract":"The Republic of Yemen is enduring the world's most severe protracted humanitarian crisis, compounded by conflict, economic collapse, and natural disasters. Current food insecurity assessments rely on expert evaluation of evidence with limited temporal frequency and foresight. This paper introduces a data-driven methodology for the early detection and diagnosis of food security emergencies. The approach optimizes for simplicity and transparency, and pairs quantitative indicators with data-driven optimal thresholds to generate early warnings of impending food security emergencies. Historical validation demonstrates that warnings can be reliably issued before sharp deterioration in food security occurs, using only a few critical indicators that capture inflation, conflict, and agricultural productivity shocks. These indicators signal deterioration most accurately at five months of lead time. The paper concludes that simple data-driven approaches show a strong capability to generate reliable food security warnings in Yemen, highlighting their potential to complement existing assessments and enhance lead time for effective intervention.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Yemen","code":"YEM","type":"Country"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Agriculture "},{"name":"Food Security"},{"name":"Crisis"},{"name":"Early Warning Systems"},{"name":"Food Price Analysis"},{"name":"Vulnerability"},{"name":"Economic Monitoring "}],"topics":[{"id":"C01","parent_id":"C00","name":"Econometrics","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)"},{"id":"C14","name":"Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General","parent_id":"C1","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)"},{"id":"C25","name":"Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models \u2022 Discrete Regressors \u2022 Proportions \u2022 Probabilities","parent_id":"C2","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)"},{"id":"C53","name":"Forecasting and Prediction Methods \u2022 Simulation Methods","parent_id":"C5","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)"},{"id":"O10","name":"General","parent_id":"O1","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"data_statement":"Most data used is public and included in the reproducibility package. Seven datasets are public but cannot be redistributed in the reproducibility package. One dataset is restricted and requires contacting the data owners for access. The README contains information on accessing all datasets.","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3 ","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Steve Penson","email":"spenson@worldbank.org","affiliation":"World Bank"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org","affiliation":"World Bank"}],"production_date":"2024-06","repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: 11th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-1145G7 @ 2.60GHz 1.50 GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 15.7 GB\n\u2022 Software version:\n\u2013 Python 3.10\n\u2013 Power BI 2.103.881.0 64-bit (March 2022","technology_requirements":"Runtime: 3 hours","reproduction_instructions":"Users need to download data from the dataset \"Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)\", the Yemen Baseline Assessment and Rapid Displacement Indicators of the IOM, gain access to the dataset \"High Resolution Population Density Maps from Facebook for Yemen\", and recreate the input file \"yemen_adm2_population.csv\" to be able to run the code. Instructions for all of these are included in the README of the reproducibility package."},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open code"},{"tag":"Restricted data"}],"schematype":"script"}