{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DIME","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2024-09-10","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Juli\u00e1n Folgar","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jfolgar@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Francisco Garc\u00eda Posleman","email":"fgarciaposleman@gmail.com"}],"title_statement":{"idno":"RR_ARG_2024_163","title":"Reproducibility package for Procyclical fiscal policy in Argentina: Drivers and channels of a long-lasting marriage"},"production_date":"2024-09","abstract":"Fiscal policy can play a critical role in mitigating business cycle volatility. However, between 1990 and 2022, Argentina stood up as one of the most pro-cyclical countries globally. This paper scrutinizes Argentina's fiscal policy conduct throughout the business cycle, pinpointing pro-cyclical budget components and estimating the cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) incorporating transient and structural factors. The study reveals a significant decline in Argentina's CAPB. It shows that Argentina's fiscal pro-cyclicality stems primarily from expenditure policies, particular those related to pensions and public wages, setting Argentina apart from its peers. Furthermore, through an in-depth analysis of Argentina\u00b4s procyclical pensions and public wage policies, the paper finds that both have been influenced by \u201cprice\u201d effect, while \u201cquantities\u201d effect has been particularly relevant for public wage bill in recent decades. Additionally, Argentina\u2019s unconventional taxes exacerbate pro-cyclicality. These contributions hold significant implications for policymakers, offering valuable guidance in designing more effective policy levers to achieve fiscal policy objectives, including macroeconomic stabilization.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Argentina","code":"ARG"}],"keywords":[{"name":"fiscal policy"},{"name":"procyclicality"},{"name":"Argentina"},{"name":"CAPB"},{"name":"pensions"},{"name":"wage bill"},{"name":"taxes"}],"topics":[{"id":"E32","name":"Business Fluctuations \u2022 Cycles","parent_id":"E3","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)"},{"id":"H29","name":"Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - Other","parent_id":"H2","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)"},{"id":"H55","name":"Social Security and Public Pensions","parent_id":"H5","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)"},{"id":"H59","name":"National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - Other","parent_id":"H5","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)"},{"id":"H62","name":"Deficit \u2022 Surplus","parent_id":"H6","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)"},{"id":"H63","name":"Debt \u2022 Debt Management \u2022 Sovereign Debt","parent_id":"H6","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)"}],"output":[{"type":"Working paper","title":"Procyclical fiscal policy in Argentina: Drivers and channels of a long-lasting marriage","description":"Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) WPS10942","uri":"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099719010032428787\/IDU1cc15bab3161ae14a091b69e168967d00bf2a","doi":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1596\/1813-9450-10942"}],"software":[{"name":"Excel","version":"Microsoft Excel for Microsoft 365 MSO"}],"scripts":[{"file_name":"RR_ARG_2024_163","zip_package":"RR_ARG_2024_163.zip","title":"Reproducibility package (code and data) for Procyclical fiscal policy in Argentina: Drivers and channels of a long-lasting marriage","dependencies":"The reproducibility package uses one external dependency (HPFilter.xla), included in the zip file.","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank."}],"data_statement":"All data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Pro, version 23H2\n\u2022 Processor: 11th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-1145G7 @ 2.60GHz 1.50 GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 15.7 GB\n\u2022 Software version: Microsoft\u00ae Excel for Microsoft 365 MSO (Version 2402 Build 16.0.17328.20346) 64-bit","technology_requirements":"There are no other technology requirements needed","reproduction_instructions":"Open any of the Excel files that reproduce the figures of the paper and then open \"HPfilter.xla\". This will enable the use of the function \"HP(XX, 100)\" on the spreadsheets. Users can then inspect any plot to track how they are generated in Excel.","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3 ","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Juli\u00e1n Folgar","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jfolgar@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"IMF World Economic Outlook Database","note":"Indicators used: nominal public spending, inflation, and GDP. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF). Data was accessed in December 2022. Data was collected manually from a custom query in the data URL and compiled in the Excel file \"Figure 1 to 4.xlsx\". See README for details.","uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/weo-database\/2024\/April\/select-country-group","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/terms.htm","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"IMF Government Finance Statistics Database","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/terms.htm","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/data.imf.org\/?sk=3c005430-5fdc-4a07-9474-64d64f1fb3dc","note":"Indicator used: compensation of employees of the general government, as a percentage of GDP. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF). Data was accessed in June 2023. Data was collected manually from a custom query in the data URL and compiled in the Excel file \"Figure 8.xlsx\". See README for details."},{"name":"Data from the Oficina Nacional de Presupuesto (Secretary of Treasury) of Argentina","uri":"https:\/\/www.economia.gob.ar\/onp\/estadisticas\/","note":"Source: Ministry of Economy of Argentina, Oficina Nacional de Presupuesto. Data was accessed in April and August 2023 for different data tables from this source. Data was collected manually from sources of the data URL and compiled in the Excel files \"Figure 6 and 7.xlsx\" and \"Figure 9.xlsx\". See README for details.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.argentina.gob.ar\/acerca","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Dos Siglos de Economia Argentina","uri":"https:\/\/dossiglos.fundacionnorteysur.org.ar\/","note":"Series used: real GDP from 1960 to 2004. Source: Fundacion Norte y Sur. Data was accessed in April 2023. Data was collected manually from the data URL and compiled in the Excel file \"Figure 1 to 4.xlsx\". See README for details.","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Argentina National Accounts","note":"Series used: Real GDP from 2004 to 2022. Source: Argentina's Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Y Censos (INDEC). Data was accessed in April 2023. Data was collected manually from the data URL, aggregated by year, and compiled in the Excel file \"Figure 1 to 4.xlsx\". See README for details.","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/www.indec.gob.ar\/indec\/web\/Nivel4-Tema-3-9-47"},{"name":"Ejecucion Presupuestaria Provincial de Argentina (Budget Execution by Province of Argentina)","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.argentina.gob.ar\/acerca","uri":"https:\/\/www.economia.gob.ar\/dnap\/ejecuciones.html","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Source: Ministry of Economy of Argentina, Direcci\u00f3n Nacional de Asuntos Provinciales. Data was accessed in April 2023. Data was collected manually from sources of the data URL and compiled in the Excel file \"Figure 9.xlsx\". See README for details."},{"name":"OECD Social Expenditure Database","note":"Source: OECD Stats. Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was collected from the data URL and compiled in the Excel file \"Figure 10 11.xlsx\". See README for details.","uri":"https:\/\/stats.oecd.org\/index.aspx?queryid=30197","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/about\/terms-conditions.html"},{"name":"Data on pensions expenditures of Latin American countries","uri":"https:\/\/repositorio.cepal.org\/server\/api\/core\/bitstreams\/ef2286b9-b700-45e9-ac66-e343faa75211\/content","note":"Source:  Comisi\u00f3n Econ\u00f3mica para Am\u00e9rica Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). Data was accessed in December 2022. Data was manually compiled from the report of the data URL into the Excel file \"Figure 10 11.xlsx\". See README for details.","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Data on pensions expenditures of Argentina","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.argentina.gob.ar\/acerca","uri":"https:\/\/www.argentina.gob.ar\/economia\/sechacienda\/cgn\/cuentainversion","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Source: Ministry of Economy of Argentina, Contadur\u00eda General de la Naci\u00f3n . Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was manually compiled from multiple sources of the data URL into the Excel file \"Figure 10 11.xlsx\". See README for details."},{"name":"Argentina tax data","uri":"https:\/\/www.argentina.gob.ar\/economia\/ingresospublicos\/recaudacion","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.argentina.gob.ar\/acerca","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Source: Ministry of Economy of Argentina, Subsecretar\u00eda de Ingresos P\u00fablicos. Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was manually compiled from multiple sources of the data URL into the Excel file \"Figure 18 to 25.xlsx\". See README for details."},{"name":"Minimum pension benefit value of Argentina","uri":"https:\/\/www.economia.gob.ar\/datos\/","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.argentina.gob.ar\/acerca","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Source: Ministry of Economy of Argentina. Data was accessed in March 2024. Data was manually compiled from the data URL into the Excel file \"Figure 12 13.xlsx\". See README for details."},{"name":"OECD Global Revenue Statistics Database","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/about\/terms-conditions.html","note":"Source: OECD Data Explorer. Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was downloaded from the data URL and compiled in the Excel file \"Figure 12 13.xlsx\". See README for details.","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/data-explorer.oecd.org\/vis?tenant=archive&df[ds]=DisseminateArchiveDMZ&df[id]=DF_RS_GBL&df[ag]=OECD&dq=...&lom=LASTNPERIODS&lo=5&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false"},{"name":"Global tax rates","note":"Source: Vegh and Vuletin (2015). The data is available in the World Bank Open Knowledge Repository, see the data URL. Data was accessed in March 2023. Data was downloaded from the data URL (in the link \"English Microsoft Excel XML (180.55 KB)\") and compiled in the Excel file \"Figure 16-17.xlsx\". See README for details.","uri":"https:\/\/openknowledge.worldbank.org\/handle\/10986\/29303","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","license_uri":"https:\/\/openknowledge.worldbank.org\/pages\/terms-of-use\/en","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organization"},{"name":"Argentina export duties by type of product","note":"Source: Administraci\u00f3n Federal de Ingresos P\u00fablicos (AFIP) of Argentina. Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was manually compiled from multiple sources of the data URL into the Excel file \"Figure 18 to 25.xlsx\". See README for details.","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/www.afip.gob.ar\/estudios\/anuario-estadisticas-tributarias\/"},{"name":"IMF Commodity terms of trade","note":"Source: IMF. Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was manually compiled from the data URL into the Excel file \"Figure 18 to 25.xlsx\". See README for details.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/terms.htm","uri":"https:\/\/data.imf.org\/?sk=2CDDCCB8-0B59-43E9-B6A0-59210D5605D2","access_type":"Data is public and included in the reproducibility package."}]},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"No code"},{"tag":"Open data"}],"schematype":"script"}