{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DIME","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2025-04-23","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Gabriel Englander","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"aenglander@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Jennifer Bone","affiliation":"University of California, Santa Barbara","email":"jebone@ucsb.edu"},{"name":"Christopher Costello","affiliation":"University of California, Santa Barbara","email":"costello@bren.ucsb.edu"},{"name":"Gavin McDonald","affiliation":"University of California, Santa Barbara","email":"gmcdonald@bren.ucsb.edu"},{"name":"Jennifer Raynor","affiliation":"University of Wisconsin-Madison","email":"jennifer.raynor@wisc.edu"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Global Expansion Of Marine Protected Areas And The Redistribution Of Fishing Effort","idno":"RR_WLD_2024_153"},"data_statement":"The reproducibility package starts from constructed data. All constructed data is included in the reproducibility package. Rmd files for data construction are included in the package. This page lists the raw data files and explains how each one relates to the corresponding constructed data files. However, some raw data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file. (Restricted Data).","software":[{"name":"R","version":"4.4.2"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Global Expansion Of Marine Protected Areas And The Redistribution Of Fishing Effort","date":"2025-04","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2024_153","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2024_153.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2025-04-23","abstract":"The expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) is a core focus of global conservation efforts, with the \u201c30x30\u201d initiative to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030 serving as a prominent example of this trend. We consider a series of proposed MPA network expansions of various sizes, and we forecast the impact this increase in protection would have on global patterns of fishing effort. We do so by building a predictive machine learning model trained on a global dataset of satellite-based fishing vessel monitoring data, current MPA locations, and spatiotemporal environmental, geographic, political, and economic features. We then use this model to predict future fishing effort under various MPA expansion scenarios compared to a business-as-usual counterfactual scenario that includes no new MPAs. The difference between these scenarios represents the predicted change in fishing effort associated with MPA expansion. We find that regardless of the MPA network objectives or size, fishing effort would decrease inside the MPAs, though by much less than 100%. Moreover, we find that the reduction in fishing effort inside MPAs does not simply redistribute outside\u2014rather, fishing effort outside MPAs would also decline. The overall magnitude of the predicted decrease in global fishing effort principally depends on where networks are placed in relation to existing fishing effort. MPA expansion will lead to a global redistribution of fishing effort that should be accounted for in network design, implementation, and impact evaluation.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Marine Protected Areas"},{"name":"Fisheries Economics"},{"name":"Fisher Behavior"},{"name":"Predictive Machine Learning"}],"output":[{"type":"Published Paper","description":"Journal Article","title":"Global Expansion Of Marine Protected Areas And The Redistribution Of Fishing Effort","doi":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2400592121"},{"uri":"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099847001102541330","doi":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1596\/1813-9450-11030","type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) 11030","title":"Global expansion of marine protected areas and the redistribution of fishing effort"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","contacts":[{"name":"Gabriel Englander","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"aenglander@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"uri":"https:\/\/www.ncei.noaa.gov\/erddap\/index.html","name":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature anomaly and Chlorphyll-A data","note":"Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ERDDAP; Datasets: ncdcOisst21Agg_LonPM180, erdMH1chlamday;\nThese datasets are processed in the 01_data_wrangling_erddap.Rmd file to construct errdap_sst.csv, errdap_chl.csv and global_grid.csv. \n","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to size limitations."},{"uri":"https:\/\/globalfishingwatch.org\/data\/our-data-in-bigquery\/","note":"Source: Global Fishing Watch; Datasets: pipe_static.bathymetry, pipe_static.distance_from_port_20201105, pipe_static.distance_from_shore; Data was downloaded from the Global Fishing Watch data in BigQuery and processed in the 2_data_wrangling_spatial_measures.Rmd file to construct gfw_static_spatial_measures.csv.\n","name":"Global Fishing Watch: Bathymetry, distance from shore, and distance to port","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to size limitations.","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International"},{"name":"Marina Region: Global Oceans and Seas","note":"Source: Marine Region; Datasets: goas_v01.shp; Data is processed in the 2_data_wrangling_spatial_measures.Rmd file to construct oceans.csv","uri":"https:\/\/www.marineregions.org\/download_file.php?name=GOaS_v1_20211214.zip","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","access_type":"Accessible Data"},{"name":"No-take Zones Implementation Dates","note":"Source: Authors; Datasets: ntz_implementation_dates.csv; Data is processed in the 2_data_wrangling_spatial_measures.Rmd file to construct current_2020_no_take_mpa_geopackage.gpkg together with mpatlas_20201223_clean.shp","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Marine Protection Atlas","access_type":"Limited-access data","uri":"https:\/\/marine-conservation.org\/mpatlas\/download\/","note":"Source: MPA Atlas; Datasets: mpatlas_20201223_clean.shp; Data is processed in the 2_data_wrangling_spatial_measures.Rmd file to construct current_2020_no_take_mpa_geopackage.gpkg together with ntz_implementation_dates.csv"},{"name":"Global Fishing Watch: Fishing Efforts and Vessels Data","note":"Source: Global Fishing Watch; Datasets: world-fishing-827.pipe_production_v20201001, world-fishing-827.pipe_production_v20201001.research_messages, world-fishing-827.pipe_production_v20201001.research_segs, world-fishing-827.gfw_research.eez_info, world-fishing-827.gfw_research.fishing_vessels_ssvid_v20220601, world-fishing-827.gfw_research.vi_ssvid_byyear_v20221001, world-fishing-827.gfw_research.vi_ssvid_byyear_v20240201; \nData was downloaded from the Global Fishing Watch data in BigQuery and processed in the 3_data_wrangling_gfw.Rmd file to construct palau_gfw_data.csv.\n","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to size limitations.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/globalfishingwatch.org\/data\/our-data-in-bigquery\/"},{"note":"Source: Global Fishing Watch; Datasets: world-fishing-827.gfw_research.sat_reception_smoothed_one_degree_v20210722;\nData was downloaded from the Global Fishing Watch data in BigQuery and processed in the 3_data_wrangling_gfw.Rmd file to construct gfw_reception_quality.csv","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to size limitations.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/globalfishingwatch.org\/data\/our-data-in-bigquery\/","name":"Global Fishing Watch: Automatic Identification System (AIS) reception quality data"},{"name":"Remote Sensing Systems: Wind speed data","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International","uri":"https:\/\/data.remss.com\/ccmp\/","access_type":"Limited-access data","note":"Source: Remote Sensing Systems; Datasets: CCMP_Wind_Analysis_**_V02.0_L3.0_RSS.nc,  CCMP_Wind_Analysis_**_V02.1_L3.0_RSS.nc;\nThe authors use V2.0 for dates from 2012-2019, and V2.1 for dates from 2020-2021. Data was processed in the 4_data_wrangling_wind.Rmd file to construct remss_wind.csv"},{"name":" Bunker Index: Fuel price data","note":"Source: Bunker Index; Datasets: bix_world_ifo_380_index.csv","access_type":"Data is restricted. Information on obtaining these data directly from Bunker Index can be found at https:\/\/bunkerindex.com\/","uri":"https:\/\/bunkerindex.com\/"},{"name":"Global Fishing Index (GFI)","note":"Source: Minderoo Foundation (2021); Datasets: 'Global Fishing Index 2021 Data for Download V1.1.xlsx\n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package"},{"license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International","uri":"https:\/\/www.marineregions.org\/download_file.php?name=World_EEZ_v11_20191118_LR.zip","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","note":"Source: Marine Region; Datasets: eez_v11_lowres.gpkg","name":"Marine Region: Maritime Boundaries and Exclusive Economic Zones"},{"uri":"https:\/\/www.marineregions.org\/gazetteer.php?p=details&id=50384","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","note":"Source: Marine Region; Datasets: mesopelagiczones.shp","name":"Mesopelagic ecoregions of the world's oceans"},{"note":"Source: Yesson, Chris; Letessier, Tom B; Nimmo-Smith, Alex; Hosegood, Phil; Brierley, Andrew S; Hardouin, Marie; Proud, Roland (2020): List of seamounts in the world oceans - An update [dataset]. PANGAEA, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1594\/PANGAEA.921688; Datasets: YessonEtAl2019-Seamounts-V2.shp","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","name":"Yesson: Seamount data","uri":"https:\/\/doi.pangaea.de\/10.1594\/PANGAEA.921688","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International"},{"note":"Source: Visalli, M. E., Best, B. D., Cabral, R. B., Cheung, W. W. L., Clark, N. A., Garilao, C., Kaschner, K., Kesner-Reyes, K., Lam, V. W. Y., Maxwell, S. M., Mayorga, J., Moeller, H. V., Morgan, L., Crespo, G. O., Pinsky, M. L., White, T. D., & McCauley, D. J. (2020). Data-driven approach for highlighting priority areas for protection in marine areas beyond national jurisdiction. Marine Policy, 122, 103927. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.marpol.2020.103927; Datasets: s04a.biofish.alltime.mol50km_sol_gcs.shp","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/BenioffOceanInitiative\/bbnj\/tree\/master\/inst\/app\/www\/scenarios","license":"MIT License","license_uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit","name":"Hypothetical Marine Protection Atlas network data for simulations"},{"access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","note":"Source: Ocean Biodiversity Information System; Datasets: Global_EBSAs_Automated_Final_1104_2016_WGS84.shp\n","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/iobis\/ebsa_np\/tree\/master\/data","name":"Ocean Biodiversity Information System: Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas"},{"note":"Source: Sala, E., Mayorga, J., Bradley, D. et al. Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate. Nature 592, 397\u2013402 (2021). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-021-03371-z; Datasets: multiobjective_ranking_equal_weights.tif, biodiversity_ranking.tif, carbon_ranking.tif, food_ranking.tif","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","name":"Prioritized networks: multi-objective, biodiversity, carbon, and catch"}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Mac OS Sequoia 15.0.1 (24A348)\n\u2022 Processor: Apple M1 Pro\n\u2022 Memory available: 14 GB\n\u2022 Software version: R 4.4.2","technology_requirements":"The code takes approximately 16 hours to run.","reproduction_instructions":"To successfully replicate paper figures, users must follow these steps:\n1. Open and run the 'run.R' script\n2. Open and run the ''\/r\/05_analysis_generate_paper_figures_tables.rmd' script.\n","topics":[{"id":"Q22","name":"Fishery \u2022 Aquaculture","parent_id":"Q2","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel"},{"id":"Q28","name":"Government Policy","parent_id":"Q2","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel"}]},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}