{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DIME","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2025-06-12","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Ebad Ebadi","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"ebadi@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Enrique Aldaz-Carroll","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"ealdazcarroll@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Trade's Emissions Paradox: Cutting Greenhouse Gases, Raising Air Pollution","idno":"RR_WLD_2025_367"},"data_statement":"Some data requires purchase and is not included in the reproducibility package.","software":[{"name":"R","version":"4.4.1"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Trade's Emissions Paradox: Cutting Greenhouse Gases, Raising Air Pollution","date":"2025-06","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2025_367","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2025_367.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2025-06-12","abstract":"Trade\u2019s overall impact on emissions is not straightforward. Existing literature on trade and emissions primarily focuses on countries' net export emissions, often neglecting the emissions saved by importing products instead of producing them domestically. This paper investigates the dual impact of trade on global emissions, revealing that while emissions rise when countries produce goods for export, they fall when countries import products instead of producing them domestically. The net effect of trade on global emissions is determined by the balance between these two factors. Our estimates indicate that emissions embodied in exports are significant and rising, accounting for 31 percent of annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 25 percent of annual particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions in 2021. However, considering the emissions saved through imports, trade results in a reduction of global GHG emissions by up to 2.2 percent from 2004 to 2021, as it allows countries with high emission intensity to import rather than produce domestically. This reduction is not observed in PM2.5 emissions, where trade leads to an increase of up to 1 percent. These findings highlight the discrepancy in emission intensities between exporting and importing countries, which shapes the overall impact of trade on global emissions.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"International Trade"},{"name":"Trade And Environment"},{"name":"Air Pollution"},{"name":"Greenhouse Gas Emissions"}],"topics":[{"id":"F14","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Empirical Studies of Trade","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" F18","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Trade and Environment","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" Q53","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Air Pollution \u2022 Water Pollution \u2022 Noise \u2022 Hazardous Waste \u2022 Solid Waste \u2022 Recycling","parent_id":"Q5"},{"id":" Q56","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Environment and Development \u2022 Environment and Trade \u2022 Sustainability \u2022 Environmental Accounts and Accounting \u2022 Environmental Equity \u2022 Population Growth","parent_id":"Q5"}],"output":[{"type":"PRWP Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP) 11164","title":"Trade's Emissions Paradox: Cutting Greenhouse Gases, Raising Air Pollution","uri":"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099936306302534994","license":"CC BY 3.0 IGO https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/igo\/"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Total runtime: 20 minutes","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Ebad Ebadi","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"ebadi@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise, version 23H2\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Platinum 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 32 GB\n\u2022 Software version: R 4.4.1","datasets":[{"name":"Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Trade Data","note":"Source: Purdue University. Data was accessed in October 2024. All data files used from this dataset are included in the folder \"data\/GTAP Trade data\/\" and are listed in the README.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/search\/dataset\/0064902\/gtap-trade-data","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Sectoral Pollution Intensity Data","note":"Source: Purdue University. Data was accessed in October 2024. Data files: \"Emi_per_outpt_2004.csv\", \"Emi_per_outpt_2007.csv\", \"Emi_per_outpt_2011.csv\", \"Emi_per_outpt_2014.csv\", \"Emi_per_outpt_2017.csv\".","access_type":"Data requires purchase and it is not included with the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu\/databases\/v10\/index.aspx"},{"name":"Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Detailed Sectoral List","note":"Source: Purdue University. Data was accessed in October 2024. data file: \"Sectoral_code.csv\". The data is a literal transcription of the table in the data URL, saved into a CSV file. The reviewers verified whether the publicly available version of the data matched the one used in the original analysis, and found that they match. SHA256 hashes for the data are included in the reproducibility package for verification purposes.","uri":"https:\/\/www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu\/databases\/contribute\/detailedsector.asp","access_type":"Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution."},{"name":"World Development Indicators","note":"Source: World Bank. Data was accessed in November 2024. Indicators used: GDP in current US dollars and exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP from 1960 until 2023. Data was obtained from the data URL and saved into the files \"GDP_WDI.csv\" and \"Export_to_GDP_WDI.csv\".","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/public-licenses#cc-by","uri":"https:\/\/datatopics.worldbank.org\/world-development-indicators\/"},{"name":"Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)","note":"Source: European Commission. Data was accessed in November 2024. Data on greenhouse emissions was downloaded by accessing the URL https:\/\/edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/dataset_ghg2024, selecting \"Annual total by sector and country\", and downloading the compressed folder in \"EDGAR Total GHG in CO2eq\". From that folder, the data is in the sheet \"TOTALS BY COUNTRY\" in \"EDGAR_AR5_GHG_1970_2023.xlsx\". Data was divided by 1000 and saved into the file \"EDGAR_CHG.csv\", selecting only the columns \"Country Code\", \"Name\", and the values for each year. Data on PM2.5 emissions was downloaded by accessing the URL https:\/\/edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/dataset_ap81, selecting \"Time series\", and downloading the compressed folder for PM2.5 data. From that folder, the data is in the sheet \"TOTALS BY COUNTRY\" in \"EDGAR_PM2.5_1970_2022.xlsx\". Data was saved into the file \"EDGAR_PM2.5.csv\".","uri":"https:\/\/edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/dataset_ghg2024","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"name":"World Bank Country and Lending Groups","uri":"https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org\/knowledgebase\/articles\/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0) with additional terms specified in the license URL","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Source: World Bank. Data was accessed in November 2024. Indicators used: income group classification for the 2025 fiscal year. Data file: \"income_groups.csv\"."}],"reproduction_instructions":"1. Acquire the datasets GTAP Sectoral Pollution Intensity Data and GTAP Detailed Sectoral List\n2. Copy the data with the file names specified in the README to the folder \"data\".\n3. Recreate the programming environment specified in the \"renv.lock\" file by installing the R package renv and running renv::restore() from the reproducibility package's working directory, or alternatively, manually install all the R libraries listed in the \"renv.lock\" file that are required by this reproducibility package.\n4. Run the script \"GTAP_Export_Import.R\"\n5. Run the script \"Code_TradeEmissionParadox.R\"\n6. Run the script \"Code_Appendix_Figure2_TradeEmissionParadox.R\"\nGiven that full access to the reproducibility package data might be challenging for some users due to one dataset not being publicly available, we are including the code outputs generated by the code reviewers in the reproducibility verification in this reproducibility package. These are in the folder \"outputs\"."},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Limited-access data"},{"tag":"Open Code"}],"schematype":"script"}