{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2025-10-03","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Jean-Christophe Maur","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jmaur@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Jean-Francois Arvis","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jarvis1@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Akanksha Burman","affiliation":"IFC","email":"aburman1@ifc.org"},{"name":"Alvaro Espitia","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"aespitia@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Nadia Rocha","affiliation":"InterAmerican Development Bank","email":"nadiaro@iadb.org"},{"name":"Daria Ulybina","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"dulybina@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Measuring Exposure And Vulnerability To International Trade Shocks","idno":"RR_WLD_2025_424"},"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available, but not all are included in the reproducibility package. ","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"18.0"},{"name":"Python","version":"3.11.4"},{"name":"Excel","version":"Microsoft Excel for Microsoft 365 MSO"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Measuring Exposure And Vulnerability To International Trade Shocks","date":"2025-10","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2025_424","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2025_424.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder. Python dependencies are stored in the environment.yml file. "}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2025-10-03","abstract":"This work discusses simple frameworks for measuring a country's exposure and vulnerability to international trade shocks at the sector and product level based on widely available data. Exposure refers to measuring the reliance, at country or sector level, on purchases or sales abroad, while vulnerability assesses the risks associated with exposure. The paper argues that traditional measures of trade openness, such as trade over GDP that measure participation in international trade, and exposure to it, fail to capture the true extent of a country's reliance on international markets and do not allow for more granular insights at the sectoral level. A set of indicators based on multi-region input-output (MRIO) data and disaggregated trade datais proposed to address these shortcomings. MRIO based indicators highlight the need to consider both drivers of supply and demand through participation into global value chains and resulting indirect trade linkages as important dimensions to consider of exposure to global trade.\nWhether the exposure to international markets leads to vulnerabilities is captured by identifying risk features of participation in international trade. Vulnerability will arise when foreign sourcing (imports) and foreign demand (exports) cannot be easily substituted to mitigate shocks on international markets. When assessing risks of disruption to international trade flows, this work proposes to combine three dimensions related with trade concentration, its volatility, and logistics complexity, highlighting both the risks associated with over-reliance on specific and volatile trade partners and products in the absence of easy substitutes, as well as inherent risks associated with international logistics supply chains.\n","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"International Trade"},{"name":"Global Value Chains"},{"name":"Trade Shocks"},{"name":"Exposure To Trade"},{"name":"Supply Chains"},{"name":"Trade Vulnerability"},{"name":"Trade Exposure"}],"topics":[{"id":"F14","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Empirical Studies of Trade","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" F15","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Economic Integration","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" F61","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Microeconomic Impacts","parent_id":"F6"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Measuring Exposure And Vulnerability To International Trade Shocks"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime from raw data: 5 hours. \nRuntime from intermediate data: 2 minutes.","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Jean-Christophe Maur","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jmaur@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in the paper, follow these steps:\n1. Obtain the raw data not included in the package and place it in the correct folder structure.\n2. Open the file `EORA GVC Indicators package\/code\/[0.0] master` do file. Update the file paths as needed, then run the code.\n3. Open the file `Supply Chain Complexity indicator package\/sc_complexity\/bilateral sc complexity.ipynb`. Restore the environment and run all cells.\n4. From the run in step 3, copy the file `sc complexity output - bilateral weighted averages (REDUCED).csv` into the folder `Product exposure and vulnerability package 0925\/Data\/Raw`. (This file is already included in the folder.)\n5. Open the file `Product exposure and vulnerability package 0925\/Code\/[0.0] Master` do file. Update the paths if needed and run the code.\n6. Finally, open the top-level do file: `Replication of Tables and Figures`. Update the path and run the code. This last step will export all figures and tables into the `Outputs` folder at the top level of the directory.\n\nNote: Most intermediate data needed to reproduce the results with this script are already included in the package. Therefore, to replicate the findings, users only need to run steps 1,2, and 6. \nThe exhibits produced by the replicators are included in the folder `Outputs` so users can compare them directly with the published paper.\nAdditionally, there is another folder in the reproducibility package, `ICIO GVC Indicators package`. This folder is not used to generate the final figures but provides an alternative data source for users who wish to reproduce the findings using different input data.\n","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise, version 23H2\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Platinum 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 128 GB","datasets":[{"note":"Located at: EORA GVC Indicators package\/data\/Eora26_year'_bp` zip.\nTo obtain access to the EORA 26 dataset, users should visit the link below, create an account, and select the appropriate license type (either an academic license or a trial license). After obtaining access, they should download the ZIP files for the years 2022 to 1990 and place them in the folder specified above.\nAccess date: 10 September 2024.","citation":"Lenzen, M., Moran, D., Kanemoto, K., & Geschke, A. (2013). Building EORA: A Global Multi-Region Input-Output Database at High Country and Sector Resolution. Economic Systems Research, 25(1), 20\u201349. doi:10.1080\/09535314.2013.769938","license_uri":"https:\/\/worldmrio.com\/licensing.jsp","name":"EORA 26","uri":"https:\/\/worldmrio.com\/eora26\/","access_type":"Data is accessible, but does not allow redistribution and is not included in the reproducibility package"},{"name":"Inter-Country Input-Output tables, 2023 Release","uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/data\/datasets\/inter-country-input-output-tables.html ","note":"Located at: ICIO GVC Indicators package\/data\/ICIO_2023\/1995.csv to 2020.csv.\nAccess date: 23 September 2024.\nTo download, users can follow the link below, download the zip folders 1995-2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2011-2015, 2016-2020, and place them in the mentioned folder. ","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/about\/terms-conditions.html","access_type":"Data is publicly available, but because of size constraints, it is not included in the reproducibility package","citation":"Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2024). Inter-Country Input-Output tables. Available at: https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/data\/datasets\/inter-country-input-output-tables.html "},{"name":"International Trade Database, Version 202501 (HS17)","note":"File location:\nProduct GVC Indicators package\/Data\/Raw\/BACI_HS17_V202501\/\nFiles range from BACI_HS17_Y2017_V202501.csv to BACI_HS17_Y2023_V202501.csv; country_codes_V202501.csv; product_codes_HS17_V202501.csv.\n\nAccess date: 12 February 2025.\n\nDownload instructions:\nTo download the files, follow the link provided below. Select the 202501 version, then click on HS17 (2017\u20132023). This will download a ZIP folder containing all the required CSV files.\nUnzip the folder and place the CSV files in the correct directory indicated above.\n","uri":"https:\/\/www.cepii.fr\/CEPII\/en\/bdd_modele\/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.etalab.gouv.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/open-licence.pdf","license":"OPEN LICENCE 2.0","access_type":"Data is publicly available, but because of size constraints, it is not included in the reproducibility package","citation":" Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010) BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version. CEPII Working Paper, N\u00b02010-23."},{"name":"Product Concordance Tables","note":"Source: World Bank World Integrated Trade Solution Database.\nFile location: Product GVC Indicators package\/Data\/Support\/HS2017toHS2012ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx; HS2017toHS1992ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx\nProduct GVC Indicators package\/Data\/Support\/Concordance_HS_to_H0.CSV;\nProduct GVC Indicators package\/Data\/Support\/HS 2012 to HS 1992 Correlation and conversion tables (1).xls; Product exposure and vulnerability package 0925\/Data\/ValueChains\/GreenValueChains\/Mapping_HS6\/HSCodeandDescription.xlsx; HS2017toHS1992ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx; HS 2012 to HS 1992 Correlation and conversion tables.xls.\nAccess date: 24 September 2025.","uri":"https:\/\/wits.worldbank.org\/product_concordance.html","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package"},{"name":"World Bank Country and Lending Groups","uri":"https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org\/knowledgebase\/articles\/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","note":"Source: World Bank. \nFile location: Product GVC Indicators package\/Data\/WB_Country_Classification_FY_25.dta.\n","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)"},{"name":"Green Value Chains Data","note":"Files location: Product exposure and vulnerability package\/Data\/ValueChains\/GreenValueChains\/Mapping_HS6\/new_GVC_dataset.dta.\nAccess date: 24 September 2025. \nData is available in Annex 3 from the publication below. ","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","citation":"Rosenow, Samuel Kaspar; Mealy, Penny. 2024. Turning Risks into Reward: Diversifying the Global Value Chains of Decarbonization Technologies. Policy Research Working Paper; 10696. \u00a9 World Bank. http:\/\/hdl.handle.net\/10986\/41024 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.","uri":"https:\/\/openknowledge.worldbank.org\/entities\/publication\/75964bc2-4115-4178-9d80-fb7518ebd4b9","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License (CC BY 3.0 IGO)"},{"access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package","note":"File manually created by the authors. \nFile location: Product GVC Indicators package\/Data\/ISO3 concordance.dta","name":"ISO3 Concordance Data"},{"name":"Semiconductors Data","uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/content\/dam\/oecd\/en\/publications\/reports\/2019\/12\/measuring-distortions-in-international-markets-the-semiconductor-value-chain_bf9aafd6\/8fe4491d-en.pdf","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","note":"Files location: Product exposure and vulnerability package\/Data\/ValueChains\/GreenValueChains\/Semiconductors\/List of Products Semiconductors.xlsx.\nAccess date: 24 September 2025. "},{"name":"Logistics Performance Index (LPI)","note":"Source: World Bank.\nFile location: Supply Chain Complexity indicator package\/sc_complexity\/c2c minus myanmar (calcs).xlsx.\nAccess date: 24 September 2025.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/lpi.worldbank.org\/international\/global"},{"access_type":"File location: Supply Chain Complexity indicator package\/\nsc_complexity\/unctad codes.csv.\nAccess date: 24 September 2025.","name":"Liner Shipping Bilateral Connectivity Index","citation":"UNCTAD, Division on Technology and Logistics, Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities based on data from MDS Transmodal (https:\/\/www.mdst.co.uk).","license":" Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license","license_uri":"https:\/\/unctadstat.unctad.org\/EN\/About.html#TERMS_OF_USE","uri":"https:\/\/unctadstat.unctad.org\/datacentre\/reportInfo\/US.LSBCI","note":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package"},{"name":"Travel Time & Distance","license":"Wolfram Mathematica License Agreement","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.wolfram.com\/legal\/agreements\/wolfram-mathematica\/","access_type":"Data is accessible, but does not allow redistribution and is not included in the reproducibility package","note":"File location: Supply Chain Complexity indicator package\/sc_complexity\/results Travel Time and geo distance.csv\nAccess date: May 2025.\nAs this dataset cannot be included in the package, a CSV file containing the data structure is provided instead. This allows users to prepare their own version of the dataset and reproduce the analysis and findings presented in the paper."},{"uri":"https:\/\/wits.worldbank.org\/data\/public\/HS_GVC_ProductGroup.xlsx","name":"Archetypical GVCs Value chains  ","note":"Files location: Product exposure and vulnerability package\/Data\/ValueChains\/GreenValueChains\/Mapping_HS6\/HS_GVC_ProductGroup.xlsx\nAccess date: 29 September 2025. ","citation":"Ferrantino, Michael Joseph; Schmidt, Gabriela. Using gross trade data to map archetypal GVCs (English). Paper is funded by the Strategic Research Program (SRP)|Policy Research working paper|no. WPS 8296 Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/860011515427969143","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package"}]},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}