{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2025-09-11","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Muhammad Khudadd Chattha","affiliation":"The World Bank","email":"mchattha@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Tobias Kawalec ","affiliation":"University of Oxford","email":"tobias.kawalec@economics.ox.ac.uk"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Fiscal Multipliers In Resource-Rich Economies: Evidence From The Gulf Countries","idno":"RR_ASI_2025_413"},"data_statement":"Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.","software":[{"name":"R","version":"4.4.1"},{"name":"Stata","version":"18.5"},{"name":"MatLab","version":"2024 b"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Fiscal Multipliers In Resource-Rich Economies: Evidence From The Gulf Countries","date":"2025-09","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_ASI_2025_413","zip_package":"RR_ASI_2025_413.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock. Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2025-09-11","abstract":"This paper utilizes the unique dynamics of fiscal budgeting in countries with a large hydrocarbon sector to estimate fiscal multipliers. The main identifying assumption rests on the idea that exogenously identified global hydrocarbon demand shocks can be considered plausible instruments for the fiscal space of countries in which that space is significantly dictated by hydrocarbon income, with such shocks being uncorrelated with non-hydrocarbon output at the same time. Using a local projection-instrumental variables (LP-IV) framework, the paper estimates that short-run fiscal expenditure multipliers to be in the ballpark of 0.1-0.4. In addition, we find that multipliers are at the upper end of this interval during recessions, indicating thatfiscal policy in the Gulf countries is particularly effective during economic downturns.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Asia","code":"ASI"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Fiscal Multipliers"},{"name":"Fiscal Policy"}],"topics":[{"id":"E62","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Fiscal Policy \u2022 Modern Monetary Theory","parent_id":"E6"},{"id":" H60","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"H6"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP) 11193","title":"Fiscal Multipliers In Resource-Rich Economies: Evidence From The Gulf Countries","uri":"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099531408202540298"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"~ 3 hours run time","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Muhammad Khudadd Chattha","affiliation":"The World Bank","email":"mchattha@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the results, a new user should follow these steps:\n\n1. Change the file path in the `master_GCC_FM` do-file.  \n   - This main do-file includes an option to run the data cleaning process.  \n   - To run the full data cleaning, you would need to download the X13-ARIMASEATS routine from the US Census Bureau and follow the instructions in the README file.  \n   - Since the intermediate data is already included in the package, this step is optional. You can skip data cleaning and directly run the rest of the code.  \n   - By default, the data cleaning option is set to \"not run.\"  \n   - After updating the path, run `master_GCC_FM`.\n\n2. Change the file path and run the MATLAB script `plots_main`.\n\n- Note: Some of the data used in the appendix is restricted and therefore prevents the appendix scripts from executing successfully. As a result, users will not be able to run and reproduce the exhibits in the appendix. However, the corresponding scripts are included for completeness and transparency \u2014 specifically, `plots_appendix.m` and `gcc_specific_plots.R`.  In addition, the figures produced by the replicators are included in the reproducibility package so that users can compare them directly with the exhibits published in the paper.\n\n","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Processor INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+, 2800 Mhz, 16 Core(s), 16 Logical Pro-\ncessor(s)\n\u2022 Memory available: 87 GB\n","datasets":[{"name":"Global Macro Database","note":"File location: DATADIR\/GMD_Mar2025.dta. \nAccess date: 03-2025. ","uri":"https:\/\/www.globalmacrodata.com\/data.html","citation":"M\u00fcller, Karsten, Chenzi Xu, Mohamed Lehbib, and Ziliang Chen. 2025. The Global Macro Database: A New International Macroeconomic Dataset. Working Paper No. 33714. National Bureau of Economic Research. April. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3386\/w33714","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","license":" Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.globalmacrodata.com\/index.html"},{"name":"Oil Supply News Shocks","note":"File location: Novel_data\/Kanzig_oilSupplyNewsShocks_2024M06.xlsx, Novel_data\/Kanzig_oilSupplyNewsShocks_annual.dta, Novel_data\/Kanzig_oilSupplyNewsShocks.dta. \nAccess date: 12-2024.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/dkaenzig\/oilsupplynews","citation":"K\u00e4nzig, Diego R. 2021. \"The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements.\" American Economic Review 111 (4): 1092\u20131125."},{"name":"Oil Demand Shocks","note":"File location: BaumeisterHamilton_OilDemandShocks.xlsx.\nAccess date: December 2024.\nPlease note that the data has been updated since the authors\u2019 original analysis. If you download the dataset directly now, the numbers may differ from those used in the paper, which could result in different outcomes when running the code. However, the exact version of the dataset used by the authors is included in the reproducibility package to ensure consistent replication of results.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/uc?export=download&id=1neFXLrIvGwggebQRwjmtrWK-dfQZ9NH8","citation":"Baumeister, C. and J.D. Hamilton. \"Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks,\" American Economic Review, 109(5), May 2019, 1873-1910.\n"},{"name":"Global Commodity Shocks","note":"The dataset is updated monthly and does not have a version history. As a result, if you download the data directly now, the values may differ from those originally used in the paper, which could lead to changes in the results. To ensure consistency, the exact version of the data used for this analysis is included in the reproducibility package.\nFiles location: Novel_data\/Kilian_IndexGlobalRealEcoActivity.dta; Novel_data\/Kilian_IndexGlobalRealEcoActivity.xlsx; Novel_data\/Kilian_IndexGlobalRealEcoActivity_annual.dta. \nAccess date: 12-2024.\n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/research\/igrea","citation":"Kilian, L., & Zhou, X. (2018). Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities. Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 54\u201378. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jimonfin.2018.07.001"},{"name":"International Financial Statistics","note":"File location: IMF_IFS\/IMF_IFS_2024.xlsx, Bahrain_Forex.xlsx, Kuwait_Forex.xlsx, Oman_Forex.xlsx, Qatar_Forex.xlsx, Saudi_Forex.xlsx; Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_Forex.xlsx; Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_Forex_fromxml.xlsx; Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_CPI_200819.xlsx; Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_IntRate.xlsx; Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_GovtOps.xlsx, Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_CentrGovtOps.xlsx; Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_CB.xlsx.\nAccess date: 12-2024.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/data.imf.org\/en\/news\/accessing%20international%20financial%20statistics","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/About\/copyright-and-terms#data","citation":"International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2024. International Financial Statistics (December 2024)."},{"name":"Population Statistics","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","note":"Source: GCC-Statistical Centre, Sultanate of Oman http:\/\/gccstat.org. \nFile location: Novel_data\/from GCCSTAT\/Population_GulfStat.xlsx.\nAccess date: 12-2024.\n","uri":"https:\/\/dp.marsa.gccstat.org\/search\/type\/dataset","license_uri":"https:\/\/dp.marsa.gccstat.org\/terms-use","license":"GCC-Statistical Centre Terms of use"},{"note":"Source: GCC-Statistical Centre, Sultanate of Oman http:\/\/gccstat.org. \nEnergy database, Hydrocarbon production.\nFile location: Novel_data\/from GCCSTAT\/DF_GEETS_ENR.xlsx.\nAccess date: 12-2024.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","license":"GCC-Statistical Centre Terms of use","license_uri":"https:\/\/dp.marsa.gccstat.org\/terms-use","uri":"https:\/\/dp.marsa.gccstat.org\/dataset\/energy\/resource\/5ac6177a-1059-4f13-8899-cfd0d11585be","name":"Energy Database"},{"name":"World Development Indicators","note":"Files location: Novel_data\/Saudi-Arabia\/Saudi_Debt2017.xlsx\nAccess date: 12-2024. ","citation":"World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators (WDI) [Data set]. World Bank. Retrieved December 2024.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)"},{"name":"International Trade in Goods","citation":"International Monetary Fund. International Trade in Goods (by partner country), https:\/\/data.imf.org\/en\/datasets\/IMF.STA:IMTS. Accessed on December 2024. ","note":"Files location: Novel_data\/Kuwait\/Kuwait_ExIm.xlsx; Novel_data\/Bahrain\/Bahrain_ExIm.xlsx; Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_ExIm.xlsx; Novel_data\/Oman\/Oman_ExIm.xlsx; Novel_data\/Qatar\/Qatar_ExIm.xlsx.\nAccess date: 12-2024. \n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/About\/copyright-and-terms#data","uri":"https:\/\/data.imf.org\/en\/Data-Explorer?datasetUrn=IMF.STA:IMTS(1.0.0)&INDICATOR=XG_FOB_USD"},{"name":"Financial Indicators Dataset","note":"Source: Haver Analytics. File location: Novel_data\/data_Xinyue.xlsx. Access Date: 12-2024.","access_type":"Data is restricted and is not included in the reproducibility package"},{"name":"Labour Database","note":"Source: GCC-Statistical Centre, Sultanate of Oman http:\/\/gccstat.org. \nLabour database, Labour force data.\nFile location: Novel_data\/from GCCSTAT\/DF_PSS_LAB.xlsx.\nAccess date: 12-2024.","uri":"https:\/\/dp.marsa.gccstat.org\/dataset\/labour","license":"GCC-Statistical Centre Terms of use","license_uri":"https:\/\/dp.marsa.gccstat.org\/terms-use","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package"},{"name":"Sales of Oil & Gas Products","note":"Source: Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (FCSC), United Arab Emirates. (2025). Files location: Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_Regions_OilGas.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024. The original data access is blocked, so the replicators were unable to open the link directly. However, since the Ministry operates under an open data policy (CC BY 4.0), the dataset has been included in the reproducibility package to ensure full reproducibility.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/uaestat.fcsc.gov.ae\/Terms&Conditions_en","uri":"https:\/\/uaestat-fcsc-gov-ae.webpkgcache.com\/doc\/-\/s\/uaestat.fcsc.gov.ae\/vis?lc=en&fs%5B0%5D=FCSC+-+Statistical+Hierarchy,0%7COil+and+Gas%23ENG_OG%23&pg=0&fc=FCSC+-+Statistical+Hierarchy&snb=10&df%5Bds%5D=FCSC-RDS&df%5Bid%5D=DF_OG&df%5Bag%5D=FCSA&df%5Bvs%5D=4.1.0&pd=2015,2020&dq=.A..........&to%5BTIME_PERIOD%5D=false&ly%5Brw%5D=TIME_PERIOD&ly%5Bcl%5D=OG_PRODUCT&ly%5Brs%5D=REF_AREA"},{"uri":"https:\/\/data.bis.org\/topics\/DSS","name":"Debt Securities Statistics","note":"Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2025). Debt Securities Statistics. \nFiles location: Novel_data\/Kuwait\/BIS_DebtStats_Kuwait.xlsx, Novel_data\/Oman\/BIS_DebtStats_Oman.xlsx, Novel_data\/Qatar\/BIS_DebtStats_Qatar.xlsx, Novel_data\/Saudi-Arabia\/Bis_DebtStats_Saudi.xlsx, Novel_data\/Qatar\/BIS_DebtStats_Qatar.xlsx, Novel_data\/UAE\/BIS_DebtStats_UAE.xlsx. \nAccess date: 12-2024.\n","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/terms_conditions.htm#Copyright_and_Permissions","access_type":"Data is publicly available, but does not allow redistribution"},{"uri":"https:\/\/data.bis.org\/topics\/CPI\/BIS,WS_LONG_CPI,1.0\/M.SA.628, https:\/\/data.bis.org\/topics\/CPI\/data?data_view=table&filter=FREQ%3DA%257CM%255EUNIT_MEASURE%3D628%255EREF_AREA_TXT%3DKuwait%255ETIMESPAN%3D1660-12-31_2024-11-30","name":"Consumer Price Indicators","access_type":"Data is publicly available, but does not allow redistribution","note":"Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2025). Consumer prices.\nFiles location: Novel_data\/Saudi-Arabia\/Saudi_CPI.xlsx; Novel_data\/Saudi-Arabia\/Saudi_CPI_granular.xlsx, Novel_data\/Kuwait\/Kuwait_CPI.xlsx\nAccess date: 12-2024. ","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/terms_conditions.htm#Copyright_and_Permissions"},{"uri":"https:\/\/www.data.gov.bh\/explore\/?disjunctive.theme&sort=modified&refine.theme=National+Accounts+-+Quarterly","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.data.gov.bh\/pages\/terms-and-conditions\/","license":"Bahrain Open Data Portal Terms and Conditions","note":"Source: Bahrain Open Data Portal. 2024. Quarterly National Accounts Data.\nFiles location: ORIGDIR\/Novel_data\/Bahrain_GDP_const_price.xlsx, Bahrain_GDP_curr_price.xlsx, Bahrain_GDP_curr_price_decomp.xlsx.\nBahrain.xlsx.\nAccess date: 12-2024","name":"Quarterly National Accounts Data - Bahrain"},{"name":"Quarterly National Accounts Data - Kuwait","note":"Source: National Centre for Statistics and Information.\nFiles location: ORIGDIR\/Novel_data\/Kuwait.xlsx; Novel_data\/Kuwait\/GDP_estimates_at_current_and_constant_prices_(time_series)_Quarterly.xlsx;\nNovel_data\/Kuwait\/Kuwait_GDP.xlsx.\nAccess date: 12-2024\n\n","uri":"https:\/\/www.csb.gov.kw\/Pages\/Statistics_en?ID=80,  https:\/\/www.ceicdata.com\/en\/kuwait\/government-revenue-and-expenditure\/government-revenue-ytd","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package"},{"name":"Quarterly National Accounts Data - Oman","uri":"https:\/\/data.gov.om\/zoangf\/national-accounts, https:\/\/data.gov.om\/search?query=National%20accounts","license_uri":"https:\/\/knoema-thumbnails.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com\/production\/KFM\/doc\/omandata\/OPEN%20GOVERNMENT%20DATA%20POLICY.pdf","license":"OPEN GOVERNMENT DATA POLICY","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","note":"Files location: Novel_data\/Oman\/Oman_StatData.xlsx; Novel_data\/Oman\/Oman_StatData_Monetary.xlsx; Novel_data\/Oman\/Oman_StatData_PublicFinance.xlsx.\nAccess date: 12-2024"},{"name":"Quarterly National Accounts Data - Qatar","uri":"https:\/\/www.data.gov.qa\/explore\/?disjunctive.theme&disjunctive.features&disjunctive.modified&disjunctive.publisher&sort=modified","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.data.gov.qa\/pages\/license\/annexes","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","note":"Source: Government of Qatar. Open Data Portal. \nFiles location: ORIGDIR\/Novel_data\/Qatar.xlsx.\nAccess date: 12-2024","license":"Open Data Licensing Policy"},{"uri":"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.sa\/en\/statistics?index=119021","license":"GASTAT Use Policy","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.sa\/en\/use-policy","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","name":"Economic Statistics - Saudi Arabia ","note":"Source: General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), Saudi Arabia, Economic Statistics.\nFiles location: Novel_data\/Saudi-Arabia\/Saudi_InternationalTrade.xlsx; Novel_data\/Saudi-Arabia\/Saudi_IndustrialProduction.xlsx; Novel_data\/Saudi-Arabia\/Saudi_GDP.xlsx; Novel_data\/Saudi-Arabia\/Saudi_GDP2.xlsx.\nAccess date: 12-2024. "},{"name":"Quarterly National Accounts Data - United Arab Emirates","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","note":"Source: GCC-Statistical Centre, Sultanate of Oman http:\/\/gccstat.org. \nFile location: Novel_data\/from GCCSTAT\/DF_ES_NA(1).xlsx; Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_MonetaryAggregate.xlsx; Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_GDP.xlsx; Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_GDP_201218.xlsx; Novel_data\/UAE\/UAE_GDP_fromxml.xlsx.\nAccess date: 12-2024.","uri":"https:\/\/sdmx.marsa.gccstat.org\/FusionRegistry\/ws\/public\/sdmxapi\/rest\/data\/GCCSTAT.ES,DF_ES_NA,1.0\/all\/all\/?labels=name&format=excel; https:\/\/dp.marsa.gccstat.org\/search\/type\/dataset","license":"GCC-Statistical Centre Terms of use","license_uri":"https:\/\/dp.marsa.gccstat.org\/terms-use"},{"uri":"https:\/\/www.cbk.gov.kw\/en\/statistics-and-publication\/dynamic-statistical-releases\/monthly","note":"Source: Central Bank of Kuwait.\nFiles location: Novel_data\/Kuwait\/cbk-inr-excel-155265_v450_tcm10-155265.xlsx; Novel_data\/Kuwait\/Kuwait_CB_PolicyRate.xlsx. \nAccess date: 12-2024. \n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","name":"Interest Rates Data - Kuwait","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.cbk.gov.kw\/en\/footer\/disclaimer"},{"name":"Public Finance Data - Oman","note":"Source: National Centre for Statistics and Information. Files location: Novel_data\/Oman\/Oman_AnnualPublicFinance.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","license":"Open Data Policy","license_uri":"https:\/\/data.gov.om\/legal\/termsofuse","uri":"https:\/\/www.finance.gov.mv\/publications\/reports-and-analyses\/quarterly-debt-bulletin and https:\/\/data.gov.om\/OMPBFNC2016\/public-finance"},{"name":"Interest Rates Data - Bahrain","note":"Source: Bloomberg Terminal. File location: Novel_data\/Bahrain\/Bahrain_InterestRates.xlsx. Access Date: 12-2024.","access_type":"Data is restricted and is not included in the reproducibility package","uri":" https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/products\/bloomberg-terminal\/"}]},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open Data"}],"schematype":"script"}