{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2025-10-16","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"title_statement":{"idno":"PP_EUR_2025_410","title":"Reproducibility package for Are regional fiscal multipliers on EU structural and investment fund spending large? A reassessment of the evidence"},"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Federico Fiuratti","email":"federicofiuratti@gmail.com","affiliation":"World Bank"},{"name":"Desislava Nikolova","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"dnikolova@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Steven Pennings","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"spennings@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Marc Schiffbauer","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mschiffbauer@worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2025-10-16","abstract":"The European Commission\u2019s \u201cNextGenerationEU\u201d COVID-19 recovery package has underscored interest in the size of regional fiscal multipliers in Europe. While the objective of EU funds is generally the long-term transformation and growth of EU economies, several recent papers have estimated large short-term regional multipliers on historical EU structural and investment fund spending. This paper reevaluates the evidence by estimating relative regional short-term multipliers using recent data on EU fund spending at the subnational (NUTS2) level and a leave-one out predicted disbursement schedule instrument. In contrast with much of the recent literature, we find little evidence of large relative GDP multipliers. While investment responds strongly to EU funds, often increasing euro for euro, we also find suggestive evidence of crowding out of other government consumption.","geographic_units":[{"code":"EUU","name":"European Union"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Fiscal multiplier"},{"name":"European union "},{"name":"Monetary union"}],"topics":[{"id":"E62","vocabulary":"JEL Classifications","name":" Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory ","url":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","parent_id":"E6","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel"},{"id":"F45","vocabulary":"JEL Classifications","name":" Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions ","url":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","parent_id":"F4","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel"}],"output":[{"type":"Journal Article","description":"Journal Article","title":"Are regional fiscal multipliers on EU structural and investment fund spending large? A reassessment of the evidence","uri":"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0164070425000291"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"18 MP"},{"name":"R","version":"4.0.0"}],"scripts":[{"file_name":"PP_EUR_2025_410","zip_package":"PP_EUR_2025_410.zip","title":"Reproducibility package for Are regional fiscal multipliers on EU structural and investment fund spending large? A reassessment of the evidence","date":"2025-10","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank."}],"license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"affiliation":"World Bank","name":"Steven Pennings","email":"spennings@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Gross domestic product (GDP) and main components","note":"Source: Eurostat. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2908\/NAMA_10_GDP\nFiles: RawData\/GDP_Components.xlsx","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license_uri":"https:\/\/european-union.europa.eu\/legal-notice_en","uri":"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/databrowser\/view\/nama_10_gdp__custom_12688756\/default\/table"},{"name":"Gross fixed capital formation by NUTS 2 region for total economy and general government","note":"Source: Eurostat. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2908\/NAMA_10R_2GFCF\nFiles: RawData\/Investment_byNUTS2.xlsx","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","uri":"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/databrowser\/view\/NAMA_10R_2GFCF\/default\/table","license_uri":"https:\/\/european-union.europa.eu\/legal-notice_en"},{"name":"Gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices by NUTS 2 region","note":"Source: Eurostat. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2908\/NAMA_10R_2GDP\nFiles: RawData\/GDP_byNUTS2.xlsx","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license_uri":"https:\/\/european-union.europa.eu\/legal-notice_en","uri":"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/databrowser\/view\/NAMA_10R_2GDP\/default\/table"},{"uri":"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/databrowser\/view\/NAMA_10_GDP__custom_3592126\/default\/table","name":"Gross domestic product (GDP) and main components (output, expenditure and income)","note":"Source: Eurostat. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2908\/NAMA_10_GDP.\nFiles: RawData\/nama_10_gdp__custom_3592126_spreadsheet.xlsx","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license_uri":"https:\/\/european-union.europa.eu\/legal-notice_en"},{"name":"Historic EU payments annual timeseries - regionalised and modelled","uri":"https:\/\/cohesiondata.ec.europa.eu\/Other\/Historic-EU-payments-annual-timeseries-regionalise\/tc55-7ysv\/about_data","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","note":"Source: European Commission - DG REGIONAL POLICY.\nFiles: RawData\/Historic_EU_payments_-_regionalised_and_modelled.csv"},{"uri":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jeea\/jvad006","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","note":"Source: Supplementary data from Ricardo Duque Gabriel, Mathias Klein, Ana Sofia Pessoa, The Effects of Government Spending in the Eurozone, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 4, August 2023, Pages 1397\u20131427, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jeea\/jvad006.\nFiles: RawData\/Data.dta; RawData\/Int_Consumption_regional.dta","name":"Regional Government Spending Proxy Data"},{"name":"International Country Risk Guide","access_type":"Data is not included in the package and are available to World Bank staff through the World Bank Library subscription.","note":"Source:  The PRS Group, Inc., 1979-2025, East Syracuse, NY 13057 USA. Contains proprietary ICRG country-year data on Rule of Law (RL), Government Effectiveness (GE), Control of Corruption (CC), Regulatory Quality (RQ) indicators (downloaded Oct-28-2021 from the World Bank Library Subscription). Compilation instructions in the README.\nFiles: RawData\/ICRG.xlsx"},{"name":"Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics (Historical)","note":"Source: Eurostat. \nFiles: PreviousNUTS2\/: 1999-2003.xls; 2003-2006.xls; 2006-2010.xls; NUTS 2010 - NUTS 2013.xls; NUTS2013-NUTS2016.xlsx; NUTS2021.xlsx","uri":"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/web\/nuts\/history","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n"},{"name":"Territorial units for statistics (NUTS)","note":"Source: Eurostat.\nFiles: Shapefiles in NUTS2_Border\\NUTS_RG_20M_2021_3035.shp","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license_uri":"https:\/\/european-union.europa.eu\/legal-notice_en","citation":"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/web\/gisco\/geodata\/statistical-units\/territorial-units-statistics"},{"name":"NUTS codes per region","note":"Source: Eurostat. The data download link is available under Data URL. Further cleaning and processing steps applied to the downloaded dataset are detailed in the README file.\nFiles: NUTS2_Border\/NUTS2021cleaned.xlsx","uri":"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/documents\/345175\/629341\/NUTS2021.xlsx","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license_uri":"https:\/\/european-union.europa.eu\/legal-notice_en"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time: ~ 10 minutes","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (4 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB","data_statement":"Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.","reproduction_instructions":"1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See subsection Datasets and the README for more details.\n2. **Download and Place Data:** Once the data is accessed, users should place it in the appropriate folder.\n3. **Run the Package:** After placing the data in the folder, run the files in the order:\n      - Open the R project \"EUFundMultipliersReplicationFile\" and run the script code_NUTS.\n      - Update the global in line 6 of the do-file \"Master\" to your folder's location and run the analysis code.\n\nSince all the data is not included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.","repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package."},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}