{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2025-11-03","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Pui Shen Yoong","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"psyoong@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Heather Ruberl","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"heather.ruberl@gmail.com"},{"name":"Diego Castillo","affiliation":"Industrial Economics","email":"dcastillo@indecon.com"},{"name":"Brent Boehlert","affiliation":"Industrial Economics","email":"bboehlert@indecon.com"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Assessing The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Stochastic Climate Shocks In Paraguay","idno":"RR_PRY_2025_470"},"data_statement":"Some of the underlying datasets are restricted and therefore cannot be included in the reproducibility package. The analysis begins from the intermediate datasets directly processed and provided by the authors, and all such intermediate data required to fully reproduce the findings are included in the package. Please refer to the README file for detailed information on data sources and processing.","software":[{"name":"Excel"},{"name":"Eviews","version":"14"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Assessing The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Stochastic Climate Shocks In Paraguay","date":"2025-11","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_PRY_2025_470","zip_package":"RR_PRY_2025_470.zip"}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2025-11-03","abstract":"This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of climate shocks on Paraguay, a small and open agriculture exporter that is highly exposed to droughts and floods. Utilizing a modified version of the World Bank\u2019s Macro-Fiscal Model (MFMod), we integrate stochastic climate shocks drawn from external biophysical models to assess the impacts of extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves and floods on agriculture and livestock production and on labor productivity in Paraguay. Our findings reveal significant vulnerabilities in agricultural outputs and exports across a range of varying climate scenarios. We present a comprehensive analysis across different climate scenarios ranging from mild to severe and quantify the range of potential impacts on key economic indicators.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Paraguay","code":"PRY"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Paraguay"},{"name":"Macro-Structural Model"},{"name":"Economic Modeling"},{"name":"Droughts"},{"name":"Floods"},{"name":"Heatwaves"},{"name":"Climate\nChange"}],"topics":[{"id":"C10","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"C1"},{"id":" C50","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"C5"},{"id":" E37","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications","parent_id":"E3"},{"id":" Q54","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Climate \u2022 Natural Disasters and Their Management \u2022 Global Warming","parent_id":"Q5"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Assessing The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Stochastic Climate Shocks In Paraguay"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Pui Shen Yoong","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"psyoong@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 Flood Hazard Data","citation":"United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 (GAR15). https:\/\/www.undrr.org\/publication\/global-assessment-report-disaster-risk-reduction-2015. Access date: 1-Aug-2024.","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package","note":"Located at: Data\/IEC\/GAR15_flooding.xlsx.","uri":"https:\/\/www.undrr.org\/publication\/global-assessment-report-disaster-risk-reduction-2015"},{"name":"Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Data","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package","citation":"World Bank. (2024). Climate Change Knowledge Portal [dataset]: https:\/\/climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org\/country\/paraguay\/climate-data-projections. Access date: 1-Aug-2024.","note":"Located at: Data\/IEC\/GAR15_flooding.xlsx.","uri":"https:\/\/climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org\/country\/paraguay\/climate-data-projections ","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)"},{"name":"Sectoral Climate Impact Estimates ","note":"Files are located at: Data\/IEC\/PRY_CDFS.xlsx.\nThis dataset contains impact estimates prepared by the Industrial Economics team. It includes modeled impacts under a no-climate-change reference scenario (\u201call hindcast\u201d) as well as the top and bottom 10 Global Climate Model runs (ranked by average impacts) for the following sectors:\nRainfed crop yields;\nLivestock yields;\nAgriculture labor productivity;\nIndustry labor productivity;\nServices labor productivity;\nThe authors compiled this dataset from proprietary Industrial Economics data. The aggregated data needed to run and reproduce the package are included in the reproducibility package. For more information about the original data, users may contact Industrial Economics, Inc. (Diego Castillo, dcastillo@indecon.com; Brent Boehlert, bboehlert@indecon.com).","access_type":"Original data is restricted, but intermediate data is included in the reproducibility package","citation":"Industrial Economics. (2024). \"Sectoral Climate Impact Estimates [dataset]\". Access date: Nov 2024."}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: 20 minutes","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: 11th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i3-1115G4 @ 3.00GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 7 GB","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings, run the following scripts:\n1. Run `0_construct_shocks.prg`\n2. Run `0_run_shocks.prg`\n3. Run `0_droughts_irfs.prg`\nThis will generate all climate shocks, simulations, and figures needed to replicate the results."},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"}],"schematype":"script"}