{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2025-11-12","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Steven Michael Pennings","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"spennings@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Arthur Galego Mendes","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"agalegomendes@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for The Contribution Of Human Capital To Current And Future Growth: An Extension Of The World Bank\u2019s Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM-HC)","idno":"RR_WLD_2025_482"},"software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"18.5"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for The Contribution Of Human Capital To Current And Future Growth: An Extension Of The World Bank\u2019s Long-Term Growth Model (Ltgm-Hc)","date":"2025-11","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2025_482","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2025_482.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2025-11-12","abstract":"This paper presents the Long-Term Growth Model \u2013 Human Capital Extension (LTGM-HC), a publicly available, spreadsheet-based toolkit that projects human capital of the workforce from 2025 to 2100 for 153 countries. The LTGM-HC simulates how pre-tertiary years of schooling, education quality, and health across age cohorts affect current and future workforce productivity. While primarily designed for country-level analysis, the paper produces three sets of general results. First, we provide new estimates of the current rate of human capital growth for 153 countries, which differ substantially from those in the Penn World Tables. Global average human capital growth is almost 1% and is surprisingly similar across income groups, as greater historical gains in years of schooling in poorer countries are offset by lower initial school quality. Second, we provide new estimates of the pace of future human capital growth. We find that, without future policy reforms, global average human capital growth will likely slow by around 0.15-0.2 percentage points per decade, hitting zero by 2080 when today\u2019s children begin to retire. In contrast, a scenario with a typical pace of reform almost halves the rate of decline.  Finally, we provide new estimates of the likely contribution of human capital to current and future economic growth. In our typical reform scenario, human capital growth is projected to raise annual GDP per capita growth by around half a percentage point over the next 75 years, leaving GDP per capita 45% higher by 2100. However, about two-thirds of these gains reflect the reforms already enacted. An extension to include tertiary education raises human capital growth, and its contribution to GDP growth, by around 0.1-0.2 percentage points.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Human Capital"},{"name":"Health"},{"name":"Education"},{"name":"Economic Growth"}],"topics":[{"id":"I10","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"I1"},{"id":"I20","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"I2"},{"id":"O15","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Human Resources \u2022 Human Development \u2022 Income Distribution \u2022 Migration","parent_id":"O1"},{"id":"O4","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity","parent_id":"O"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"The Contribution Of Human Capital To Current And Future Growth: An Extension Of The World Bank\u2019s Long-Term Growth Model (Ltgm-Hc)"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Steven Michael Pennings","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"spennings@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":" Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Human Capital Data (WCDE)","citation":"Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital. (2018). \"Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 2.0. [dataset]\". Available at https:\/\/dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org\/wcde-v2\/ ","uri":"http:\/\/www.wittgensteincentre.org\/dataexplorer","access_type":"Publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Access date: September 2024\nFiles location: \/RawData\/WCDE"},{"name":"Human Capital Index (HCI) 2020","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","access_type":"Publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/search\/dataset\/0038030","citation":"World Bank. (2020). \"The Human Capital Index 2020 [dataset]\". Available at https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/search\/dataset\/0038030","note":"Access date: April 2024\nFiles location: \/RawData\/HCI"},{"uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0","access_type":"Publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","name":"World Development Indicators ","note":"Variables used: GDP, PPP (current international $) NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD; GDP, PPP (constant international $) NY.GDP.MKTP.PP; GDP, PPP (constant 2017 international $) NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.KD; GNI per capita (current US $) NY.GNP.PCAP.CD; Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS; Population, total  SP.POP.TOTL\nAccess date: August 2025\nFiles location: \/RawData and \/RawData\/LTGM","citation":"World Bank. (2021). \"World Development Indicators [dataset]\". Available at https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators"},{"name":"WHO Stunting prevalence among children under 5 years of age (% height-for-age <-2 SD) (survey-based estimates)","note":"Access date: October 2025\nFiles location: \/RawData","access_type":"Publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/www.who.int\/data\/gho\/data\/indicators\/indicator-details\/GHO\/gho-jme-country-children-aged-5-years-stunted-(-height-for-age--2-sd)","license":"CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO","citation":"World Health Organization. (n.d.). \"Child malnutrition: Stunting among children under 5 years of age (survey-based estimates) [Indicator 72] [dataset]\". Global Health Observatory data repository. Available at https:\/\/www.who.int\/data\/gho\/data\/indicators\/indicator-details\/GHO\/gho-jme-country-children-aged-5-years-stunted-(-height-for-age--2-sd)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-sa\/3.0\/igo\/"},{"name":"UNWPP World Population Prospects ","license":"CC BY 3.0 IGO","license_uri":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/igo\/","access_type":"Publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Access date: August 2025\nFiles location: \/RawData and \/RawData\/LTGM","uri":"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/","citation":"United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2024). \"World Population Prospects 2024 [dataset]\". Available at https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/"},{"name":"Barro-Lee Educational Attainment Dataset","uri":"http:\/\/barrolee.com\/","note":"Access date: July 2024\nFiles Location: \/RawData","access_type":"Publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Barro, Robert and Jong-Wha Lee. (2013). \u201cA New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010 [dataset].\u201d Journal of Development Economics, vol 104, pp.184-198. Available at http:\/\/barrolee.com\/"},{"license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0","license_uri":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","name":"Penn World Table (PWT) version 10.01","access_type":"Publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer (2015). \"The Next Generation of the Penn World Table [dataset]\". American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182. Available at https:\/\/www.rug.nl\/ggdc\/productivity\/pwt\/pwt-releases\/pwt1001?lang=en","uri":"https:\/\/www.rug.nl\/ggdc\/productivity\/pwt\/pwt-releases\/pwt1001?lang=en","note":"Access date: June 2024 \nFiles location: \/RawData and \/RawData\/LTGM"},{"name":"Global Data Set on Education Quality (1965\u20132015)","note":"Access date: October 2025\nFiles location: \/RawData ","access_type":"Publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/70614151672117298","citation":"Altinok, Nadir; Angrist, Noam; Patrinos, Harry Anthony. \"Global data set on education quality (1965-2015) (English)\". Policy Research working paper|no. WPS 8314 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/70614151672117298."},{"name":"IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)","citation":"International Monetary Fund. (2024). \"World Economic Outlook Database [dataset]\". Available at https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/weo\/weo-database\/2024\/october","access_type":"Publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/weo\/weo-database\/2024\/october","note":"Access date: April 2024\nFiles location: \/RawData\/LTGM"},{"name":"World Bank Income Groups","uri":"https:\/\/datacatalogfiles.worldbank.org\/ddh-published\/0037712\/DR0090755\/CLASS.xlsx","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0","license_uri":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","citation":"World Bank. (2025). World Bank Income Groups [dataset]. Available at https:\/\/datacatalogfiles.worldbank.org\/ddh-published\/0037712\/DR0090755\/CLASS.xlsx","note":"Access date: July 2024\nFile location: RawData\/LTGM","access_type":"Publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"citation":"World Bank. (n.d.). \"Long-Term Growth Model \u2013 Natural Resource Extension (LTGM-NR), Version 1.0. [Excel spreadsheet]\". Available at https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/LTGM\n.","name":"The Long-Term Growth Model - Natural Resource Extension (LTGM-NR)","access_type":"Publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/LTGM","license_uri":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0","note":"Instructions for the replication of LTGM-NR can be found in this document: https:\/\/thedocs.worldbank.org\/en\/doc\/e982165e79043593decfc8095c7c8e64-0050062022\/original\/LTGMNRInstructionsReplication-March2022.pdf"}],"data_statement":"All data is publicly available and can be found in the reproducibility package. ","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this study, please follow the steps below:\n1. Update the file paths in the main do file to your local setup so they match the directory where the data is stored.\n2. Run the main do file.","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced in one computer with the following specifications:\nOS: Windows 11 Enterprise\nProcessor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 5218 CPU @2.30GHz\nMemory available: 6 GB\nSoftware version: Stata 18.5 MP","technology_requirements":"~30 minutes runtime"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open Data"}],"schematype":"script"}