{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2025-11-19","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Brian Blankespoor","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"bblankespoor@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Susmita Dasgupta","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"sdasgupta@worldbank.org"},{"name":"David Wheeler","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"wheelrdr@gmail.com"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Country-Level Pathways To 30x30 And Their Implications For Global Biodiversity Protection","idno":"RR_WLD_2025_496"},"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package. ","software":[{"name":"R","version":"4.5.2"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Country-Level Pathways To 30x30 And Their Implications For Global Biodiversity Protection","date":"2025-11","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2025_496","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2025_496.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2025-11-19","abstract":"The Global Biodiversity Framework adopted at COP 15 set a target to protect 30% of the world\u2019s land and sea areas by 2030. This paper evaluates the potential contribution of the 30x30 initiative to biodiversity conservation by examining its implications for species that are endemic or occupy very small habitats. Using over 600,000 species occurrence maps derived from GBIF data\u2014substantially expanding representation for plants and invertebrates\u2014the study develops high-resolution, country-specific templates that identify priority-ordered protected areas optimized for cost-effective species coverage. Each iteration expands protection to maximize gains for unprotected species until full coverage is achieved, allowing flexibility to adapt to national economic and political constraints, including the 30% target of 30x30.\nResults include priority-ordered terrestrial protected areas for 138 countries and marine protected areas for 160 countries. At the global level, full protection of currently protected species aligns with 30% terrestrial and marine coverage. Expanding global land protection from 14.8% to 18.0% and marine protection from 16.6% to 19.9% would achieve 100% species coverage in the database. However, uneven species distributions make this infeasible for all countries within the 30% territorial limit. Among 242,414 critical species analyzed, 65.5% are currently protected; most of the remainder could be covered within national 30% limits, though some countries would need to exceed them.\nThe analysis highlights opportunity-cost disparities\u2014particularly for low-income countries\u2014indicating that effective implementation of 30x30 will require international compensation mechanisms. The study underscores that true success lies in species protection rather than territorial extent.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Biodiversity Conservation"},{"name":"30 X 30"},{"name":"Protected Area"},{"name":"Terrestrial"},{"name":"Marine"}],"topics":[{"id":"Q57","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services \u2022 Biodiversity Conservation \u2022 Bioeconomics \u2022 Industrial Ecology","parent_id":"Q5"},{"id":" Q58","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Government Policy","parent_id":"Q5"},{"id":" Q23","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Forestry","parent_id":"Q2"},{"id":" Q24","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Land","parent_id":"Q2"},{"id":" Q25","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Water","parent_id":"Q2"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP) 11269","title":"Country-Level Pathways To 30x30 And Their Implications For Global Biodiversity Protection","uri":"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099328112032534200"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: 20 minutes","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Brian Blankespoor","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"bblankespoor@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/search\/dataset\/0038272\/World-Bank-Official-Boundaries","name":"World Bank Official Boundaries","note":"Global administrative boundaries, including Admin 0 (WB_GAD_ADM0_complete.*), NDLSA (WB_GAD_ADM0_NDLSA.*), and Admin 0 Lines (WB_GAD_Lines.*). The package contains code to download the shapefiles directly from the World Bank Data Catalog and unzip them during execution. Since the code downloads this dataset directly, any overwriting or updating of the source file may alter the results. The package was last run in November 2025, and full reproducibility was obtained with the version available at that time.","access_type":"Data is publicly available, and code to download is included in the reproducibility package. ","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","citation":"World Bank (2025). World Bank Official Boundaries [dataset]. https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/search\/dataset\/0038272\/World-Bank-Official-Boundaries. Accessed on Nov 2025. "},{"name":"Global Analysis of Protected Area Expansion and Species Coverage","access_type":"Data is publicly available, and the code to download is included in the reproducibility package. ","license":"Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0","uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/search\/dataset\/0066932\/Global-Analysis-of-Protected-Area-Expansion-and-Species-Coverage-","citation":"World Bank. (2025). Global Analysis of Protected Area Expansion and Species Coverage [dataset]. https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/search\/dataset\/0066932\/Global-Analysis-of-Protected-Area-Expansion-and-Species-Coverage-. Accessed on Nov 2025. ","note":"Contains information on administrative matched codes (marine and terrestrial), species protection indicators (marine and terrestrial), cumulative biodiversity protection (Global 5KM), protected area totals, GBIF-derived species information, and PPA algorithm outputs. All datasets are downloaded programmatically using the code included in the package. Since the code downloads this dataset directly, any overwriting or updating of the source file may alter the results. The package was last run in November 2025, and full reproducibility was obtained with the version available at that time.","license_uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/int\/public-licenses?fragment=cc"},{"name":"World Bank Country and Lending Groups","uri":"https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org\/knowledgebase\/articles\/906519-world-bank- country-and-lending-groups","citation":"World Bank. (2025). World Bank Country and Lending Groups [dataset]. https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org\/knowledgebase\/articles\/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups. Accessed on Nov 2025. ","note":"Files location: Joint_PA\/Data\/Country Classifications Region and Category.csv","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package. ","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets"}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: macOS Sequoia\n\u2022 Processor: Apple M4 Pro\n\u2022 Memory available: 24 GB","reproduction_instructions":"To fully reproduce the findings in this paper, please follow these steps:\n\n1. **Open the project** by double-clicking the `.Rproj` file.\n2. **Restore the environment** by running `renv::restore()` and following the prompts.  \n   Alternatively, you may install all libraries by running the package load script `global_pa_wp_global_libraries.R`.\n3. **Run the analysis** by opening the file `global_pa_wp_main.R` and executing the code.\n\nAll datasets used in this project are publicly available, and all data are downloaded directly within the code."},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open Data"}],"schematype":"script"}