{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2025-12-18","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Jos\u00e9-Daniel Reyes","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"danielreyes@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Mariana Conte Grand","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mcontegrand@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Pui Shen Yoong","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"psyoong@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Nicol\u00e1s Borchers Arriagada","affiliation":"University of Tasmania","email":"nicolas.borchers@gmail.com"},{"name":"Luis Diego Rojas Alvarado","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"lrojasalvarado@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Evaluating Paraguay\u2019s Vulnerability To The EU Deforestation-Free Regulation","idno":"RR_PRY_2025_514"},"software":[{"name":"R","version":"4.5.1"},{"name":"Stata","version":"18 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Evaluating Paraguay\u2019s Vulnerability To The EU Deforestation-Free Regulation","date":"2025-12","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_PRY_2025_514","zip_package":"RR_PRY_2025_514.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock. Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2025-12-18","abstract":"This paper examines Paraguay\u2019s vulnerability to the European Union\u2019s Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR). Drawing on trade data, customs firm-level data, and high-resolution geospatial analysis, it assesses exposure at the country, firm, and geographic levels. The results show that Paraguay\u2019s direct export exposure to the EUDR is modest, but indirect exposure through Argentina\u2019s soy value chain could affect up to 13 percent of its exports. Firm-level evidence indicates that soy and rubber exports are concentrated among a few large firms, whereas the emerging wood and forestry sector is fragmented across small and medium-sized enterprises with limited capacity to absorb compliance costs. Geospatial analysis suggests that only 0.4%\u20132% of soybean areas may be at risk of non-compliance, concentrated in Itap\u00faa, San Pedro, and Alto Paran\u00e1. Overall, Paraguay\u2019s vulnerability stems primarily from indirect value-chain linkages, underscoring the need for targeted support and regional coordination within MERCOSUR to strengthen environmental governance.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Paraguay","code":"PRY"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Trade Policy"},{"name":"Agriculture"},{"name":"Environment"},{"name":"Development"}],"topics":[{"id":"F13","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Trade Policy \u2022 International Trade Organizations","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" Q17","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Agriculture in International Trade","parent_id":"Q1"},{"id":" Q56","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Environment and Development \u2022 Environment and Trade \u2022 Sustainability \u2022 Environmental Accounts and Accounting \u2022 Environmental Equity \u2022 Population Growth","parent_id":"Q5"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Evaluating Paraguay\u2019s Vulnerability To The EU Deforestation-Free Regulation"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Jos\u00e9-Daniel Reyes","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"danielreyes@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"World Integrated Trade Solution Data","note":"Source: World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)\nData was accessed through a query on the UN COMTRADE database executed through World Integrated Trade Solution (https:\/\/wits.worldbank.org\/). The README contains more information on how to reproduce the exact query. ","access_type":"Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution.","uri":"https:\/\/wits.worldbank.org\/","license_uri":"https:\/\/comtrade.un.org\/licenseagreement.html","citation":"World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Accessed January 5, 2026. https:\/\/wits.worldbank.org\/faqs.html#Databases"},{"uri":"https:\/\/unstats.un.org\/unsd\/classifications\/Econ","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/about-us\/terms-of-use","note":"Source: United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD)\nFilenames: HSCodeandDescription.xlsx, HS2022toHS1992ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx, HS2022toHS1996ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx, HS2022toHS2002ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx, HS2022toHS2007ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx, HS2022toHS2012ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx, HS2022toHS2017ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx\nAuthors downloaded this data in November 2024. Users must download these files from the UNSD classifications URL below. See README for details.","citation":"United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD). 2025. \"Classifications on economic statistics [dataset],\" https:\/\/unstats.un.org\/unsd\/classifications\/Econ.","access_type":"Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution.","name":"Classifications on economic statistics"},{"uri":"https:\/\/www.dnit.gov.py\/web\/portal-institucional\/datos-abiertos","note":"Source:  National Directorate of Tax Revenue (DNIT) \nThe original data vintage was downloaded by the authors in late 2023. The data is no longer publicly available, as firm identifiers are no longer published. For access inquiries, please contact Ana Margarida Fernandes (afernandes@worldbank.org) and Daniel Reyes (danielreyes@worldbank.org)","name":"Export data for Paraguay","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package"},{"uri":"https:\/\/forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/GFC#data_download","name":"Global Forest Cover Data","note":"Source: Joint Research Centre (JRC)","citation":"Bourgoin, Clement; Verhegghen, Astrid; Ameztoy, Iban; Carboni, Silvia; Achard, Frederic; Colditz, Rene (2025): Global map of forest cover 2020 - version 3. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] PID: http:\/\/data.europa.eu\/89h\/8c561543-31df-4e1b-9994-e529afecaf54","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.","license_uri":"https:\/\/land.copernicus.eu\/en\/data-policy"},{"name":"Paraguay Forest Cover Data","note":"Source: MapBiomas","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/paraguay.mapbiomas.org\/","citation":"MapBiomas Paraguay. 2023. \"MapBiomas Paraguay Collection 2 - Annual Series of Land Cover and Land Use Maps (1985-2023).\" MapBiomas. Accessed January 5, 2026. https:\/\/paraguay.mapbiomas.org\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints."},{"name":"Soybean Cover Data","note":"Source: Global Land Analysis & Discovery (GLAD) ","uri":"https:\/\/glad.umd.edu\/projects\/commodity-crop-mapping-and-monitoring-south-america","citation":"X.-P. Song, M.C. Hansen, P. Potapov, B. Adusei, J. Pickering, M. Adami, A. Lima, V. Zalles, S.V. Stehman, C.M. Di Bella, C.M. Cecilia, E.J. Copati, L.B. Fernandes, A. Hernandez-Serna, S.M. Jantz, A.H. Pickens, S. Turubanova, A. Tyukavina (2021). Massive soybean expansion in South America since 2000 and implications for conservation. Nature Sustainability. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41893-021-00729-z","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.","license_uri":"https:\/\/registry.opendata.aws\/glad-landsat-ard\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY)."},{"name":"Soybean Planting Area, Production and Yield","note":"Source: Paraguayan Chamber of Exporters and Marketers of Cereals and Oilseeds \u201cCAPECO\u201d","uri":"https:\/\/capeco.org.py\/area-de-siembra-produccion-y-rendimiento\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Paraguayan Chamber of Exporters and Marketers of Cereals and Oilseeds (CAPECO). n.d. \"Soybean Planting Area, Production and Yield [database].\" https:\/\/capeco.org.py\/area-de-siembra-produccion-y-rendimiento\/. "},{"name":"Paraguay Soybean Production ","note":"Source: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)","citation":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, International Production Assessment Division (USDA FAS IPAD). n.d. \"Paraguay Soybean Area, Yield and Production [database].\" Crop Explorer Country Summary. https:\/\/ipad.fas.usda.gov\/countrysummary\/Default.aspx?id=PA&crop=Soybean.","uri":"https:\/\/ipad.fas.usda.gov\/countrysummary\/Default.aspx?id=PA&crop=Soybean","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"note":"Source: Global Administrative Areas (GADM)","name":"Administrative Shape Files for Paraguay","access_type":"Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0","license_uri":"https:\/\/gadm.org\/license.html","citation":"Global Administrative Areas (GADM). \"Administrative Shape Files for Paraguay [dataset],\" https:\/\/gadm.org\/data.html, 2025","uri":"https:\/\/gadm.org\/download_country.html"}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this study, please follow the steps below:\n1. Some datasets are restricted and require special permissions. Please refer to the `README` file for detailed instructions on data access.\n2. Run the following dofile in Stata:\n   - `00-main-Figs17_Table1.do`\n3. Open the R project `Reproducibility_Package.Rproj` and run the following scripts in order:\n   - `00-main-Fig8_Tables45.r`\n   - `5_calculate_GLAD_soybean_Paraguay_2001_2023.r`\n   - `6_calculate_INFONA_soybean_Paraguay_2022.r`\n   - `7_calculate_MapBiomas_forest_Paraguay_2020.r`\n   - `8_calculate_JRC_forest_Paraguay_2020.r`\n4. Outputs will be generated in the `\/Results` and `\/Graphs` folders.\nBecause the restricted datasets are not included in the package, the `\/Results` folder contains outputs produced by the authors. These files can be used to review and verify the results presented in the paper.\n","technology_requirements":"Runtime: 4 hours"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"}],"schematype":"script"}