{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-01-08","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Pierre Jean-Claude Mandon","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"pmandon@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Vincent Nossek","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"vnossek@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Walker Kosmidou-Bradley","affiliation":"World Bank ","email":"wkosmidoubradley@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Frederic Mortier","affiliation":"CIRAD, Montpellier, France","email":"frederic.mortier2@gmail.com"},{"name":"Baptiste Cheville","affiliation":"Phoenix Consulting International, Paris, France","email":"bastien.cheville@gmail.com"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Unveiling Hidden Hardships: Leveraging Alternative Data To Map Multidimensional Vulnerability In The Central African Republic","idno":"RR_CAF_2025_520"},"software":[{"name":"R","version":"4.5.2"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Unveiling Hidden Hardships: Leveraging Alternative Data To Map Multidimensional Vulnerability In The Central African Republic","date":"2026-01","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_CAF_2025_520","zip_package":"RR_CAF_2025_520.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-01-08","abstract":"In fragile states such as the Central African Republic, where conflict and institutional fragility severely constrain traditional data collection, mapping multidimensional vulnerability and potential deprivation poses a significant challenge for designing targeted interventions. This paper presents an innovative geospatial dashboard that harnesses alternative data sources\u2014including nighttime light intensity, other relevant satellite imagery, geocoded infrastructure inventories, and critical event records\u2014to develop high-resolution indices (at a 5\u00d75 km scale) of economic capacity, access to essential services (education, health, and water), flood exposure, and lethal conflict risks.\nBy employing a Bayesian state-space model to disaggregate sectoral GDP and friction-based accessibility metrics, our analysis uncovers pronounced spatial disparities: economic activity remains concentrated in urban hubs such as Bangui, while rural areas suffer from compounded vulnerabilities, including limited economic opportunities and poor service access. Cross-validation with the 2021 Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey confirms the predictive validity of these indices for household wealth, with economic and service indicators positively correlated with welfare outcomes. Conversely, exposure to lethal conflict appears paradoxically associated with higher-value targets, potentially reflecting rent-seeking dynamics.\nThese tools enhance the precision of policy targeting in data-scarce environments, providing scalable and actionable insights for poverty alleviation in conflict-affected, low-income countries.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Central African Republic","code":"CAF"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Alternative Data"},{"name":"Development Economics"},{"name":"Fragile States"},{"name":"Multidimensional Poverty"},{"name":"Satellite Imagery"},{"name":"Conflict"}],"topics":[{"id":"C55","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis","parent_id":"C5"},{"id":" I32","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Measurement and Analysis of Poverty","parent_id":"I3"},{"id":" O12","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development","parent_id":"O1"},{"id":" O55","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Africa","parent_id":"O5"},{"id":" R12","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity","parent_id":"R1"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Unveiling Hidden Hardships: Leveraging Alternative Data To Map Multidimensional Vulnerability In The Central African Republic"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Pierre Jean-Claude Mandon","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"pmandon@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a new user should follow the steps below:\n\n1. Obtain access to the restricted datasets and place them in the appropriate folders, as described in the Data Availability section.\n2. Open the R Project located at `Scripts\/Scripts.Rproj`.\n3. Restore the R environment using `renv::restore()` and follow the prompts.  Alternatively, install the required packages manually using the information provided in the renv.lock file.\n4. Open the main script and run the code to execute the full workflow.\nBecause some datasets are restricted and therefore not included in the reproducibility package, the results obtained by the replicators are provided in the `Outputs` folder. These outputs allow users to verify the findings against the results reported in the paper.","technology_requirements":"Runtime: ~10 minutes","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: macOS Sequoia\n\u2022 Processor: Apple M4 Pro\n\u2022 Memory available: 24 GB\n","datasets":[{"name":"Grid-Level Indices of Economic Activity, Services Accessibility, and Risk Exposure for the Central African Republic","note":"Source: Authors\u2019 construction using QGIS; underlying sources as documented in Appendix Table A.1 (EOG, Colorado School of Mines; LandScan\/ORNL; MODIS; University of Maryland; Minex; U.S. Geological Survey; IPIS).\nFile location: Inputs\/Base_CAF_v1.csv. \nAccess date: 20\/11\/2024.","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package","citation":"Authors' construction. (2025). Grid-Level Indices of Economic Activity, Services Accessibility, and Risk Exposure for the Central African Republic [dataset]. "},{"name":"Population Point Exposure to Lethal Conflict for the Central African Republic","citation":"Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). (2025). Population Point Exposure to Lethal Conflict for the Central African Republic [dataset]. https:\/\/acleddata.com\/conflict-data","note":"Authors\u2019 construction using QGIS based on Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Since redistribution of this dataset is not allowed by the licensing terms, a list of variables is included in the README file.\nFile location: Inputs\/CAF_Pop_pts_MTI_SCIR.csv. \nAccess date: 15\/11\/2024. \n","access_type":"Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution, and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license_uri":"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/eula","license":"ACLED End User License Agreement","uri":"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/conflict-data"},{"name":"Fathom Global 3.0 Flood Risk ","note":"Population point\u2013level exposure to flood risk, extracted at each population point. Flood hazard exposure is based on Fathom Global 3.0 flood risk datasets (30 m; 2020\u20132030).  Since the data is limited-access and not included in the reproducibility package, the list of variables used is included in the README file. For more information regarding this dataset, users can contact the authors at pmandon@worldbank.org. \nFile location: Inputs\/CAF_Pop_pts_MTI_Flood2.csv. \nAccess date: 15\/11\/2024.","uri":"https:\/\/www.fathom.global\/newsroom\/world-bank-collaboration\/","citation":"Fathom, World Bank. (2025). Fathom Global 3.0 Flood Risk [dataset]. https:\/\/www.fathom.global\/newsroom\/world-bank-collaboration\/","access_type":"Data is limited-access and is not included in the reproducibility package. "},{"access_type":"Data is restricted and is not included in the reproducibility package","note":"Data was created manually using QGIS with information from ICASEES Surveys. This dataset provides population point\u2013level information on access to health facilities, primary schools, and water points. Data was extracted at each population point available. A list of the variables is included in the README file. For more information regarding this dataset, users can contact the authors at pmandon@worldbank.org. \nFile location: Inputs\/CAF_Pop_pts_MTI_stats_wWater.csv.","citation":"Authors' construction with information from Institut Centrafricain des Statistiques et des Etudes Economiques et Sociales (ICASEES). (2025). Grid-Level Indices for the Central African Republic [dataset]. ","name":"Grid-Level Indices for the Central African Republic"},{"name":"Sectoral Gross Domestic Product and Nighttime Lights Time Series for the Central African Republic","note":"This dataset was manually compiled by the authors in QGIS. It includes historical GDP data disaggregated by sector, together with nighttime lights data.\nSectoral GDP data are drawn from the World Bank World Development Indicators, National Accounts data from the national statistical institute ICASEES, and internal computations for older series.\nNighttime lights are computed using the DMSP series from the Colorado School of Mines Earth Observation Group (EOG) (https:\/\/eogdata.mines.edu\/products\/dmsp\/). As the data is restricted, the list of variables is included in the README file. For more information regarding this dataset, users can contact the authors at pmandon@worldbank.org. \nFile location: gdpSectLight_1960To2022.RDS.\nYears included: 1960-2023. \nAccess date: 05\/06\/2024.","access_type":"Data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package","citation":"Authors' construction. (2025). Sectoral Gross Domestic Product and Nighttime Lights Time Series for the Central African Republic [dataset]. "},{"name":"Household-Level Regression Dataset Matched to Grid-Level Indices","note":"Dataset resulting from a spatial join between household-level data from the 2021 Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey and grid-level indices produced by script '2_Vulnerability_indices.R'. The survey is collected by the national statistical institute (ICASEES) with the support of partners, including the World Bank Group, and is available internally only. \nFiles location: reg_data_light.dta. Since the data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package, the list of variables used is included in the README file. For more information regarding this dataset, users can contact the authors at pmandon@worldbank.org. ","citation":"Authors' construction. (2025). Household-Level Regression Dataset Matched to Grid-Level Indices. [dataset]","access_type":"Data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package. "},{"name":"Global Administrative Areas Database","uri":"https:\/\/geodata.ucdavis.edu\/gadm\/gadm4.1\/shp\/gadm41_CAF_shp.zip","note":"The data were transformed into a regular 5\u00d75 km grid covering the full territory of the Central African Republic by applying a grid function to the national boundary shapefile from the Global Administrative Areas database (GADM 4.1). For mapping purposes, the authors also created a simplified version of this grid containing fewer administrative variables.\nFiles location: Input\/GIS\/gadm41_CAF_1_2020.shp (original national boundary); Input\/GIS\/Grid_5km_CFA_v4.* (5\u00d75 km grid); Input\/GIS\/BaseGrid_NewPrefs.shp (simplified grid for mapping).","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","license_uri":"https:\/\/gadm.org\/license.html","license":"GADM license","citation":"University of California, Davis. (n.d). Global Administrative Areas database [dataset]. https:\/\/geodata.ucdavis.edu\/gadm\/gadm4.1\/shp\/gadm41_CAF_shp.zip"},{"name":"Central African Republic - Subnational Administrative Boundaries","note":"Files location: input\/GIS\/caf_admbnda_adm3_200k_sigcaf_reach_itos_v2.*.\nAccess date: 22\/13\/2023.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","uri":"https:\/\/data.humdata.org\/dataset\/cod-ab-caf  ","citation":"United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED). (2024). Central African Republic - Subnational Administrative Boundaries [dataset]. https:\/\/data.humdata.org\/dataset\/cod-ab-caf\n","license":"Creative Commons Attribution for Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY-IGO)","license_uri":"https:\/\/data.humdata.org\/faqs\/licenses"},{"name":"Main Cities of the Central African Republic","note":"Spatial layer of main cities in the Central African Republic, manually reproduced as a shapefile in QGIS based on the publicly available map of main cities published on Wikipedia (https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_cities_in_the_Central_African_Republic#\/media\/File:Central_African_Republic-CIA_WFB_Map.png). Files location: input\/GIS\/CAR_main_cities.*.","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package","citation":"Authors' construction. (2025). Main Cities of the Central African Republic [dataset]. "}],"data_statement":"Some data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package. For more information, see the README file. "},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}