{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-01-08","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Alessandro Barattieri","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"abarattieri@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Aaditya Mattoo","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"amattoo@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Jose Signoret","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jsignoret@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Tariffs As Catalysts: The Potential Development Dividend","idno":"RR_WLD_2025_515"},"data_statement":"Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"18 MP"},{"name":"GEMPACK","version":"12.1"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Tariffs As Catalysts: The Potential Development Dividend","date":"2026-01","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2025_515","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2025_515.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-01-08","abstract":"This note examines the implications of recent trade policy changes for developing countries. After the US-China bilateral tariffs increased in 2018-19, the exports of a few third countries increased but the development benefits were less significant. The tariffs more widely applied in 2025 could hurt developing economies, especially in the sectors that are more exposed and face higher tariffs. But the eventual costs need not be large once countries diversify their exports away from high tariff countries. Furthermore, the costs of foreign protection will be more than offset if countries respond with comprehensive reforms of their own trade policies. If tariff liberalization were not selective but extended to all trading partners, the gains for developing countries would be more than three times larger than the cost of higher foreign tariffs.  If reforms also addressed the significant non-tariff barriers to trade in goods and services, the development benefits would be greatly magnified. For example, the liberalization of service trade that took place in Viet Nam in the period 2008-2016 generated a sizeable increase in productivity both in the services sectors (2.9% yearly over the period 2008-2016), as well as in the manufacturing sectors using services as intermediate inputs (3.1% yearly).","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Tariffs As Catalysts: The Potential Development Dividend"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Alessandro Barattieri","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"abarattieri@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"uri":"https:\/\/www.cepii.fr\/cepii\/en\/bdd_modele\/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37","name":"BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level","note":"Source: CEPII - BACI","license":"Etalab 2.0","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.etalab.gouv.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/open-licence.pdf","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","citation":"\nCEPII - BACI. 2025. \"BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level [dataset],\" https:\/\/www.cepii.fr\/cepii\/en\/bdd_modele\/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37."},{"name":"Services Trade Restrictions Index (STRI)","note":"Source: World Trade Organization and World Bank ","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-and-conditions?utm_source","uri":"https:\/\/itip-services-worldbank.wto.org\/SearchApplied.aspx","citation":"World Bank Group, WTO. \"Services Trade Restrictions Index (STRI) [dataset],\" https:\/\/itip-services-worldbank.wto.org\/SearchApplied.aspx"},{"name":"World Development Indicators","note":"Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/public-licenses#cc-by","citation":"World Bank. . \"World Development Indicators [dataset],\" https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators.","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators"},{"name":"UN COMTRADE Global Trade data","note":"Source: United Nations via World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)\nUsers must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below. See README for instructions.","license_uri":"https:\/\/comtradeplus.un.org\/LicenseAgreement","access_type":" Data access requires human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/wits.worldbank.org\/WITS\/WITS\/Restricted\/Login.aspx","citation":"United Nations. . \"UN COMTRADE Global Trade data [dataset],\" https:\/\/wits.worldbank.org\/WITS\/WITS\/Restricted\/Login.aspx, 2025."},{"name":"Trade in Value Added (TiVA) data","note":"Source: OECD Data Explorer","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","license":"OECD Terms & Conditions","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/about\/terms-conditions.html","uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/topics\/sub-issues\/trade-in-value-added.html","citation":"OECD. (n.d.). Trade in Value-Added (TiVA) Database [Data set]. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/topics\/sub-issues\/trade-in-value-added.html"},{"name":"Global Trade Analysis Project data","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu\/databases\/documents\/LicenseAgreement_v11.pdf","license":"Custom license","access_type":" Data access requires purchase and is not included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Source: Purdue University\nUsers must purchase the GTAP database from GTAP Center. See README for instructions.","uri":"https:\/\/www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu\/databases\/v11","citation":"\"Global Trade Analysis Project data [dataset],\" V11.1, https:\/\/www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu\/databases\/v11\/."},{"uri":"https:\/\/www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu\/databases\/utilities\/v11.aspx","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Source: United Nations Trade and Development Data Hub\nData is restricted. Users may contact Alessandro Nicita (alessandro.nicita@unctad.org) for access ","name":"GTAP 11 Satellite database","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu\/databases\/v11","license":"Custom license","citation":"\nUnited Nations Trade and Development Data Hub. . \"GTAP 11 Satellite database [dataset],\" V11.1, https:\/\/www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu\/databases\/utilities\/v11.aspx."}],"technology_requirements":"Replicators runtime: 3 minutes\nVirtual verification runtime: 3 hours","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this study, please follow the steps below:\n1. Some datasets are restricted and require special permissions. Please refer to the `README` file for detailed instructions on data access.\n2. Run the Stata script `main_dofile.do` to generate outputs for Figures 1, 6, 11, and 12.\n3. Figures 5, 7, and 10, and Tables A.1, A.2, and A.3 are generated using the `RunSims.BAT file`, which runs in GEMPACK and requires a commercial license. Because of this license requirement, replicators were not able to run RunSims.BAT; therefore, this part of the analysis and the corresponding outputs were **virtually verified** following the [Virtual Reproducibility Verification Protocols](https:\/\/worldbank.github.io\/wb-reproducible-research-repository\/guidance\/virtual_reproducibility_verification_protocol.html).\n4. Outputs will be generated in the `\/Results` folder.\nBecause some data is restricted, the reproducibility package includes all outputs, however, outputs for Figures 5, 7, and 10 and Tables A.1, A.2, and A.3 require GEMPACK to be viewed; therefore, users will not be able to open these files locally, but they are included in the package for transparency purposes.\n"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"nameType":"Personal","givenName":"Alessandro","familyName":"Barattieri","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]},{"familyName":"Mattoo","givenName":"Aaditya","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]},{"familyName":"Signoret","givenName":"Jose ","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]}],"titles":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Tariffs As Catalysts: The Potential Development Dividend","lang":"en"},{"title":"RR_WLD_2025_515","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_WLD_2025_515","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}