{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-02-03","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Ericka Gabriela Rascon Ramirez","affiliation":"Middlesex University and CIDE","email":"ericka.rascon@cide.edu"},{"name":"Lorenzo Estepa Mohedano","affiliation":"LoyolaBehLab, ETEA-Development Institute and Universidad Loyola Andalucia","email":"lorenzo.estepa@fundacionetea.org"},{"name":"Diego Jorrat","affiliation":"Department of Applied Economics at Universidad de Sevilla","email":"dajorrat@gmail.com"},{"name":"Victor Orozco","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"vorozco@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Eliciting Probabilities In The Field: Beads Vs Sliders","idno":"PP_WLD_2025_533"},"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"19 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Eliciting Probabilities In The Field: Beads Vs Sliders","date":"2026-02","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"PP_WLD_2025_533","zip_package":"PP_WLD_2025_533.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-02-03","abstract":"Elicited probabilities have been shown to effectively explain and predict behaviour. Their elicitation is typically facilitated by visual aids, such as beads or beans. In this study, we introduce a novel aid, consisting of a cardboard-based slider, to facilitate probability elicitation among populations with low levels of education. Unlike discrete aids, such as beads, the slider allows respondents to report probabilities on a continuous scale, which is particularly advantageous for statistical inference and econometric modelling. To compare the effectiveness of these aids, we conducted four survey experiments: two in Nigeria, one in Honduras, and one in Spain. These experiments assessed the validity of elicited expectations using both visual aids. We find no significant differences in participants\u2019 understanding of basic probability concepts or in the time required to complete the task.  However, we find that the slider yields more precise measures (lower variance) than beads. These results suggest that comprehension remains consistent across both aids, but that the slider improves the precision of subjective probability elicitation in the field.\n","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Probability Elicitation"},{"name":"Subjective Expectations"},{"name":"Field Experiments"},{"name":"Visual Aids"},{"name":"Survey Methods"}],"topics":[{"id":"C82","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data \u2022 Data Access","parent_id":"C8"},{"id":" C93","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Field Experiments","parent_id":"C9"},{"id":" D84","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Expectations \u2022 Speculations","parent_id":"D8"}],"output":[{"type":"Journal Article","description":"Journal Articles","title":"Eliciting Probabilities In The Field: Beads Vs Sliders"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"~2 minutes runtime.","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Ericka Gabriela Rascon Ramirez","affiliation":"Middlesex University and CIDE","email":"ericka.rascon@cide.edu"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this study, please follow the steps below:\n1. Change main directory in `00_Masterfile.do`.\n2. Run the code.","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Core(TM) Ultra 7 165U @ 2.60GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 31 GB\n\u2022 Software version: Stata 19 MP","datasets":[{"name":"Eliciting Probabilities in the Field: Beads vs Sliders Survey Data","note":"All datasets used in this study were collected by the authors as part of field survey experiments conducted between 2018 and 2019.\nThe replication package includes the following datasets:\nraw data Nigeria 1.dta: Individual-level survey data from Study 1 conducted in Kano, Nigeria, in November 2018.\nraw data Nigeria 2.dta: Individual-level survey data from Study 2 conducted in Kano, Nigeria, in April 2019.\nraw data Honduras.dta: Individual-level survey data from Study 3 conducted in Cop\u00e1n, Honduras, in May 2019.\nraw data Andalucia.dta: Individual-level survey data from Study 4 conducted in Andalusia, Spain, in July 2019.","access_type":"All data sources are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","citation":"Jorrat, Diego Andres; Estepa-Mohedano, Lorenzo; Orozco-Olvera, Victor; Rascon Ramirez, Ericka Gabriela. (2026). \"Replication Data for Eliciting Probabilities in the Field: Beads vs Sliders [Dataset]\". Harvard Dataverse, V1.","uri":"https:\/\/dataverse.harvard.edu\/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910\/DVN\/9WGSPJ","license_uri":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/publicdomain\/zero\/1.0","license":"Creative Commons CCO 1.0"}]},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"}],"schematype":"script"}