{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-02-04","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Jun Rentschler","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jrentschler@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Christoph Klaiber","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"cklaiber@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Mengjue Zhu","affiliation":"Georgia Institute of Technology","email":"mzhu356@gatech.edu"},{"name":"Mattia Marconcini","affiliation":"German Aerospace Center (DLR)","email":"Mattia.Marconcini@dlr.de"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility Package for The Evolution Of Flood Exposure And Protection Gaps In Germany","idno":"RR_DEU_2025_529"},"data_statement":"Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package.","software":[{"name":"Python","version":"3.10.19"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for The Evolution Of Flood Exposure And Protection Gaps In Germany","date":"2026-02","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_DEU_2025_529","zip_package":"RR_DEU_2025_529.zip","dependencies":"Python dependencies are listed in the \"environment.yml\" file."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-02-04","abstract":"Flood risks in Germany are intensifying due to climate change, land-use change, and continued settlement expansion in flood-prone areas. We present the first nationally consistent, fine-scale (30 m) assessment of flood exposure for over 11,100 municipalities (Gemeinden) by integrating biannual settlement footprint data from 2016 to 2025 with fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flood hazard data, forward-looking climate scenarios, and detailed dike protection maps. We identify several critical trends: First, settlement area in flood zones has grown at rates similar to or in some states faster than that in safe zones, indicating that development patterns continue to reinforce, rather than reduce, exposure. Second, under the most pessimistic climate scenario (SSP5\u2013RCP8.5), 80.7% of Gemeinden are projected to experience increased flood exposure by 2080, while only 4.5% experience a decrease, even with settlement footprints fixed at their 2025 levels. Third, across all climate scenarios, pluvial flooding dominates the projected rise in exposure, underscoring the growing influence of extreme rainfall events on flood exposure. Lastly, we reveal regional disparities in dike protection. Many highly exposed Gemeinden have few or no engineered structural defenses, highlighting potential gaps where settlement exposure- has not been matched by corresponding protective infrastructure. Overall, this evidence can inform zoning reforms, guide adaptation investments, and support long-term resilience planning at national, state, and local levels.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Germany","code":"DEU"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"The Evolution Of Flood Exposure And Protection Gaps In Germany"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Jun Rentschler","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jrentschler@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Administrative areas 1:250 000 with population, version 31.12","note":"Source: Bundesamt f\u00fcr Kartographie und Geod\u00e4sie (Federal Office of Cartography and Geodesy).\nData file: \"vg250_01-01.gk3.shape.ebenen.zip\".\nData was accessed in June 2025.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.govdata.de\/dl-de\/by-2-0","license":"Data licence Germany \u2013 attribution \u2013 version 2.0","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/gdz.bkg.bund.de\/index.php\/default\/open-data\/verwaltungsgebiete-1-250-000-mit-einwohnerzahlen-stand-31-12-vg250-ew-31-12.html","citation":"Bundesamt f\u00fcr Kartographie und Geod\u00e4sie.\n2025.\n\"Administrative areas 1:250 000 with population, version 31.12\" [dataset].\nDownloaded from https:\/\/gdz.bkg.bund.de\/index.php\/default\/open-data\/verwaltungsgebiete-1-250-000-mit-einwohnerzahlen-stand-31-12-vg250-ew-31-12.html.\nAccessed June 2025."},{"name":"Germany Dike and Dune Locations","note":"Source: Bundesanstalt f\u00fcr Gew\u00e4sserkunde (BfG - Federal Institute of Hydrology).\nData file: \"Hochwasserabwehrinfrastruktur.gdb\".\nData is not available for download but may be visualized at https:\/\/geoportal.bafg.de\/karten\/HWRM_Aktuell\/?tabs=on. Data can be requested to BfG at geoportal@bafg.de.\nData was accessed in June 2025.","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Bundesanstalt f\u00fcr Gew\u00e4sserkunde.\nn.d.\n\"Germany Dike and Dune Locations\" [dataset].\nUnpublished data.\nAccessed June 2025."},{"name":"Flood Exposure and Projected Flood Exposure in Germany - Updated supplementary data for Global evidence of rapid urban growth in flood zones since 1985","note":"Source: Rentschler, J., Avner, P., Marconcini, M., Su, R., Strano, E., Vousdoukas, M., Hallegatte, S.\nThe dataset constitutes updated supplementary data for \"Global evidence of rapid urban growth in flood zones since 1985\", available at https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-023-06468-9. The dataset was processed from the World Settlement Footprint (WSF, available at https:\/\/www.dlr.de\/en\/eoc\/research-transfer\/projects-missions\/world-settlement-footprint-wsf-r) and the Global Flood Map - Fathom-Global 3.0 (available for purchase at https:\/\/www.fathom.global\/product\/global-flood-map\/). It contains flood exposure at the municipality and state levels and projected flood exposure at the municipality level for Germany.\nData files: \"Land_all_return_periods.zip\" (flood exposure at the state level), \"Gemeinde_all_return_periods.zip\", \"\"Gemeinde_Stats_all_return_periods.zip\" (flood exposure at the municipality level), \"most_optimistic.zip\", \"moderate_optimistic.zip\", \"moderate_pessimistic.zip\", \"most_pessimistic.zip\" (projected flood exposure at the municipality level).\nData was accessed in June 2025.","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Rentschler, J., Avner, P., Marconcini, M., Su, R., Strano, E., Vousdoukas, M., Hallegatte, S.\nn.d.\n\"Flood Exposure and Projected Flood Exposure in Germany - Updated supplementary data for Global evidence of rapid urban growth in flood zones since 1985\" [dataset].\nUnpublished data.\nAccessed June 2025."}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: 1 hour.","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise, version 25H2\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Core(TM) Ultra 7 165U (2.10 GHz)\n\u2022 Memory available: 31.5 GB","reproduction_instructions":"**1. Access the data:** two datasets required to run the reproducibility package are restricted and not included in the reproducibility package. Users need to gain access to the data before being able to run the entire code. See the section Datasets for more information.\n**2. Reproduce the programming environment or install all dependencies**: Replicate and activate the conda environment in the file \"environment.yml\" included in the reproducibility package, or manually install the dependencies listed in the README.\n**3. Run the code:** Run the three notebooks in the \"visual_scripts\" folder following the order mentioned in the README.\n\nSince not all the data are included, the package includes the results produced in the reproducibility verification in the folder \"final_adjustments\" and the printed outputs produced by the reviewer in each notebook cell. These can be used to review the results presented in the paper."},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}