{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-02-03","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Ana Mar\u00eda Trib\u00edn Uribe","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"atribinuribe@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Stefany L\u00f3pez Vera","affiliation":"Universidad EAFIT, Colombia","email":"slopezv22@eafit.edu.co"},{"name":"Leonardo Bonilla Mej\u00eda","affiliation":"Banco de la Rep\u00fablica, Colombia","email":"bonilme@banrep.gov.co"},{"name":"Alejandro Lopez-Feldman","affiliation":"University of Gothenburg, Sweden; Universidad Iberoamericana, Mexico","email":"alejandro.lopez.feldman@efd.gu.se"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Global Fertility Responses To Climate-Related Hazards Depend On Population Disruption, Lethality, And Hazard Type","idno":"RR_WLD_2026_562"},"software":[{"name":"R","version":"4.5.2"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Global Fertility Responses To Climate-Related Hazards Depend On Population Disruption, Lethality, And Hazard Type","date":"2026-02","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2026_562","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2026_562.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-02-03","abstract":"Global fertility is declining, yet it remains unclear whether and how climate-related hazards contribute to realised fertility change. We combine global fertility data with disaster records for 1950\u20132023 to estimate fertility responses to climate-related hazards, distinguishing between population disruption (affected-rate exposure) and lethality (death-rate exposure). Climate-related hazards show no systematic fertility response under population disruption, but are associated with persistent fertility reductions under lethality lasting at least 15 years. Aggregate climate estimates mask heterogeneity across hazard types: storms and drought-related hazards drive fertility declines, whereas heat and cold waves are associated with modest fertility increases; hydrological events show additional negative effects in high-lethality episodes. Over time, disruption-based effects remain weak, while lethality-based effects are consistently negative but attenuate in recent decades. Fertility responses vary little across income groups, and non-climate disasters remain fertility-reducing. These results show that fertility responses to climate risk depend on hazard type and lethal severity, rather than on how many people are affected.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Fertility"},{"name":"Climate Hazards"},{"name":"Disaster Lethality"},{"name":"Population Disruption"},{"name":"Demographic Change"}],"topics":[{"id":"J13","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Fertility \u2022 Family Planning \u2022 Child Care \u2022 Children \u2022 Youth","parent_id":"J1"},{"id":" Q54","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Climate \u2022 Natural Disasters and Their Management \u2022 Global Warming","parent_id":"Q5"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP) 11330","title":"Global Fertility Responses To Climate-Related Hazards Depend On Population Disruption, Lethality, And Hazard Type","uri":"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099318303032626665"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Ana Mar\u00eda Trib\u00edn Uribe","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"atribinuribe@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"United Nations World Population Prospects 2024","license_uri":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/igo\/","note":"Files location: data\/raw\/un\/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx\nClick on \u201cDownload data files\u201d. Under \u201cDemographic Indicators\u201d, download: \"Compact (most used: estimates and medium projections) (XLSX)\".","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package","citation":"United Nations. 2024. \"United Nations World Population Prospects 2024\" [dataset]. https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/. ","uri":"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/","license":"Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO"},{"name":"EM-DAT Natural Disasters Database","uri":"https:\/\/www.emdat.be\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution, and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Universit\u00e9 Catholique de Louvain - Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). 2025. \"Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)\" [dataset]. https:\/\/public.emdat.be\/","license_uri":"https:\/\/doc.emdat.be\/docs\/legal\/terms-of-use\/","note":"File location: data\/raw\/emdat_natural_1950_2023.xlsx.  Required filters for download: Classification: Natural; Geographic coverage: All continents; Time period: 1950\u20132023; Activate \u201cInclude historical events (pre-2000)\u201d. User needs to download using the appropriate filters and place the dataframe in the data\/raw folder. "},{"name":"World Bank Income Classification","uri":"https:\/\/datatopics.worldbank.org\/world-development-indicators\/the-world-by-income-and-region.html","note":"File location: data\/raw\/CLASS.xlsx.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)","citation":"World Bank. 2024. \"World Bank Income Classification\" [dataset]. https:\/\/datatopics.worldbank.org\/world-development-indicators\/the-world-by-income-and-region.html"}],"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available, but not all are included in the reproducibility package.","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a new user should follow the steps below:\n1. **Obtain access to the data not included in the package.** The EM-DAT dataset is publicly available but does not allow redistribution. Please follow the instructions provided in the data entry for this dataset and place the downloaded files in the appropriate folder specified in the package structure.\n2. **Open the R project.** Open the file `replication_package.Rproj`.\n3. **Restore the software environment.** Restore the project environment by running `renv::restore()` and follow the on-screen prompts. Alternatively, you may install the required dependencies manually.\n4. **Run the main replication script.** Execute the main script `00_run_all.R`.\n> **Note on EM-DAT updates**\n> The EM-DAT dataset is updated regularly. If users download the dataset directly from the provider, results may differ from those reported in the paper. For transparency and reference, the results produced by the replicators at the time of verification are included in the reproducibility package in the `outputs` folder.\n","technology_requirements":"Run time: 40 minutes","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: MacOS Tahoe M4 pro\n\u2022 Memory available: 497 GB"},"tags":[{"tag":"Accesible data"},{"tag":"Accessible data"},{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open code"}],"schematype":"script"}