{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-02-02","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Daniel Gerszon Mahler","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"dmahler@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Benoit Decerf","affiliation":"University of Namur","email":"benoit.decerf@unamur.be"},{"name":"Stephane Hallegatte","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"shallegatte@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for The Poverty Cost Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions","idno":"RR_WLD_2025_535"},"data_statement":"Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file. (Limited-access\/Restricted Data)","software":[{"name":"R","version":"4.5.1"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for The Poverty Cost Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions","date":"2026-02","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2025_535","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2025_535.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-02-02","abstract":"Economic growth is the key driver of poverty reduction. At the same time, economic growth still increases greenhouse gas emissions, which are expected to increase poverty in the future. To quantify the combined effect of these two mechanisms, this paper introduces emissions-adjusted poverty, a new measure that equals today\u2019s poverty plus the future poverty that today\u2019s emissions will create. The measure reaches zero when poverty is eliminated and emissions hit net-zero. Its key parameter is a human-centric analogue to the social cost of carbon, quantifying how current emissions raise future global poverty. We estimate that each ktCO2 emitted today adds two years of extreme poverty globally between now and 2100. Despite large uncertainties, the paper identifies two robust insights: For poor countries, poverty reduction from economic growth outweighs future global poverty added from the emissions associated with this growth, even with historical carbon intensities. In contrast, for many rich countries, the climate-related cost of growth outweighs the benefits unless the carbon intensity of growth falls. In all countries, the poverty gains from economic growth are larger with lower carbon intensities. ","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Poverty"},{"name":"Greenhouse Gas Emissions"},{"name":"Economic Growth"},{"name":"Social Cost Of Carbon"},{"name":"Climate Change"}],"topics":[{"id":"Q54","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Climate \u2022 Natural Disasters and Their Management \u2022 Global Warming","parent_id":"Q5"},{"id":" I32","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Measurement and Analysis of Poverty","parent_id":"I3"},{"id":" O44","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Environment and Growth","parent_id":"O4"},{"id":" Q51","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Valuation of Environmental Effects","parent_id":"Q5"},{"id":" D63","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement","parent_id":"D6"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"The Poverty Cost Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Daniel Gerszon Mahler","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"dmahler@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Annual country classifications","note":"Source: World Bank, Global Poverty & Inequality Data team (GPID).\nData was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile names: \"01-inputdata\/class\/CLASS.dta\".","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/GPID-WB\/Class","citation":"Global Poverty and Inequality Data Lab (GPID), World Bank. (2025). CLASS [Dataset].\nAvailable at: https:\/\/github.com\/GPID-WB\/Class\/blob\/master\/OutputData\/CLASS.dta.\nAccessed in December, 2025."},{"name":"World Development Indicators","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Source: World Bank.\nData was accessed in December, 2025..\nFile names: \"01-inputdata\/gdp\/gdp.Rda\"; and \"01-inputdata\/precipitation_inequality\/agrint.Rda\".\nIndicator used: GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2021, international $) (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD); Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS); and Rural population (% of total population) (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS).\n","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","uri":"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/","citation":"World Bank. 2025. \"World Development Indicators\" [Data set]. Indicators accessed: GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2021, international $), Employment in agriculture (% of total employment), and Rural population (% of total population). Accessed in December 2025. https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators"},{"name":"Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)","note":"Source:  European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), the International Energy Agency (IEA).\nData was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile location: \"01-inputdata\/ghg\".\nFile names: EDGAR_CH4_1970_2024.xlsx; EDGAR_CO2bio_1970_2024.xlsx; EDGAR_N2O_1970_2024.xlsx; IEA_EDGAR_CO2_1970_2024.xlsx.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","citation":"EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) Community GHG Database, a collaboration between the European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and comprising IEA-EDGAR CO2, EDGAR CH4, EDGAR N2O, EDGAR F-GASES version EDGAR_2025_GHG (2025) European Commission, JRC (Datasets). The complete citation of the EDGAR Community GHG Database is available in the 'Sources and References' section. \nAvailable at: https:\/\/edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/dataset_ghg2025.\nAccessed in December, 2025.","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/dataset_ghg2025","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Database Version 2.0","note":"Source: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).\nData was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile location: \"01-inputdata\/ghg\".\nFile names: iamc_ch4.xlsx; iamc_co2.xlsx; iamc_n2o.xlsx.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds, Brian C. O\u2019Neill, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Rob Dellink, Oliver Fricko, Wolfgang Lutz, Alexander Popp, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Samir KC, Marian Leimbach, Leiwen Jiang, Tom Kram, Shilpa Rao, Johannes Emmerling, Kristie Ebi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havl\u00edk, Florian Humpen\u00f6der, Lara Aleluia Da Silva, Steve Smith, Elke Stehfest, Valentina Bosetti, Jiyong Eom, David Gernaat, Toshihiko Masui, Joeri Rogelj, Jessica Strefler, Laurent Drouet, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Mathijs Harmsen, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Lavinia Baumstark, Jonathan C. Doelman, Mikiko Kainuma, Zbigniew Klimont, Giacomo Marangoni, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Michael Obersteiner, Andrzej Tabeau, Massimo Tavoni. (2025)\nThe Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environmental Change, Volume 42, Pages 153-168, 2017,\nISSN 0959-3780, DOI:110.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009. Retrieved from https:\/\/ssp.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at\/basic-drivers?type=table. Accessed in December, 2025.","uri":"https:\/\/ssp.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at\/basic-drivers?type=table"},{"name":"World Economic Outlook (WEO)","note":"Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF).\nData was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile name: \"01-inputdata\/growth\/WEOOct2025.csv\".","license":"\u00a9 International Monetary Fund Copyright. All Rights Reserved. ","license_uri":" https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/terms.htm","citation":"International Monetary Fund. (2025). World Economic Outlook (WEO), https:\/\/data.imf.org\/en\/datasets\/IMF.RES:WEO. Accessed in December, 2025.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/data.imf.org\/en\/datasets\/IMF.RES:WEO"},{"name":"Population centroids of the world 1992 - 2013","note":"Data was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile names: \"01-inputdata\/growthshocks\/AdoufadelAustin\/DMSP*\".","citation":"Hall, Ola; Bustos, Maria Archila; Boke-Ol\u00e9n, Niklas; Niedomysl, Thomas. (2019). World population centroids figshare [Dataset]. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.6084\/m9.figshare.8342411.v2. Accessed in December, 2025.","uri":"https:\/\/figshare.com\/articles\/dataset\/world-population-centroids_zip\/8342411\/2?file=17616668","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature","uri":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-024-01990-8#Sec17","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Waidelich, P., Batibeniz, F., Rising, J. et al. (2024) Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature. Nat. Clim. Chang. 14, 592\u2013599. Source data for Figure 3 [dataset]. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41558-024-01990-8. Accessed in December, 2025.","note":"Source:  International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).\nData was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile names: \"01-inputdata\/growthshocks\/Fig3sourcedata.xlsx\""},{"name":"UN World Population Prospects 2024 database","note":"Source: United Nations.\nData was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile name: \"01-inputdata\/population\/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx\"","license":"Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO","citation":"United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition. Retrieved from https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/assets\/Excel%20Files\/1_Indicator%20(Standard)\/EXCEL_FILES\/1_General\/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx. Accessed in December, 2025.","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/igo\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/assets\/Excel%20Files\/1_Indicator%20(Standard)\/EXCEL_FILES\/1_General\/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx"},{"name":"Impact of precipitation on inequality\u00a0","note":"Data was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile location: \"01-inputdata\/precipitation_inequality\".\nFile names: d2010_rev_new.csv; data_scenarios_projections_withSSP_novariazb50.csv.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/CoMoS-SA\/climate_inequality\/tree\/main\/data_revision","citation":"E. Palagi,M. Coronese,F. Lamperti, & A. Roventini. (2022). Climate change and the nonlinear impact of precipitation anomalies on income inequality, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 119 (43) e2203595119."},{"name":"Mean temperature by country and year","citation":"Gortan, M., Testa, L., Fagiolo, G., Lamperti, F. (2024). A unified dataset for pre-processed climate indicators weighted by gridded economic activity, Scientific Data.\nhttps:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41597-024-03304-1. Retrieved from https:\/\/weightedclimatedata.streamlit.app\/Download_Data. Accessed in December, 2025.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/weightedclimatedata.streamlit.app\/Download_Data","note":"Source: Institute of Economics and L'EMbeDS at Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies (Pisa, Italy).\nData was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile name: \"01-inputdata\/temperature\/_data_gadm0_era_tmp_concurrent__yearly.csv\"."},{"name":"Temperature projections","note":"Source: World Bank\u2019s Climate Change Knowledge Platform.\nData was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile name: \"01-inputdata\/temperature\/251210_weather_data_CCKP.dta\".","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","uri":"https:\/\/climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"World Bank Group. Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). (2025). Future Temperature Projections [Dataset]. Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank. Available at https:\/\/climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org\/. Accessed in December, 2025."},{"name":"Temperature pattern scaling","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/USEPA\/pattern-scaled-climate-variables\/blob\/main\/Temperature\/results\/cmip6_pattern_scaling_by_country_mean.csv","license":"The MIT License","license_uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit","citation":"U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). (2023). Pattern Scaling of Global Climate Variables [dataset]. Retrieved from https:\/\/github.com\/usepa\/pattern-scaled-climate-variables. Accessed in December, 2025.\n\n","note":"Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA).\nData was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile name: \"01-inputdata\/temperature_cf\/cmip6_pattern_scaling_by_country_mean.csv\".","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Temporal Climate Impacts","citation":"Cooper, S., (2020). Temporal Climate Impacts. Version 2. Bath: University of Bath Research Data Archive. Available from: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15125\/BATH-00923. Accessed in December, 2025.\n\n","uri":"https:\/\/researchportal.bath.ac.uk\/en\/datasets\/temporal-climate-impacts-2\/","license":"Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Data was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile names: \"01-inputdata\/temperature_cf\/temporal climate impacts.xlsx\"."},{"name":"Comparable welfare distributions","note":"Data was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile name: \"01-inputdata\/welfare\/comparable_pref.Rda\".","access_type":"Data is temporarily embargoed (expected to be made public in the future).","citation":"Mahler, Daniel Gerszon; Foster, Elizabeth; Lakner, Christoph; Prinsloo, Zander; Tchouakam Mbouendeu, Rostand; Tetteh-Baah, Samuel K.. (2025). Comparable welfare vectors [dataset].","uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/int\/data\/dataset\/0067047\/comparable_welfare_vectors"},{"note":"Data was accessed in December, 2025.\nFile location: \"01-inputdata\/growth\".\nFile names: path_F_draws_baseline.mat; paths_U_draws_baseline.mat.","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","name":"Growth forecasts","citation":"Ulrich K. M\u00fcller, James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson. (2022). An Econometric Model of International Growth Dynamics for Long-Horizon Forecasting. The Review of Economics and Statistics 2022; 104 (5): 857\u2013876. doi: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1162\/rest_a_00997\n"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: 4 hours 30 minutes","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB","reproduction_instructions":"Once users have access to all the data, to reproduce the findings, a new user needs to:\n1. Run the `00-master.R` script following the instructions in the README.","identifiers":[{"type":"DOI","identifier":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.60572\/e9tn-0350"}]},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}