{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-03-02","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Jevgenijs Steinbuks","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jsteinbuks@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Svetlana Ikonnikova","affiliation":"School of Management at the Technical University of Munich","email":"svetlana.ikonnikova@tum.de"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Estimating Willingness-To-Pay For Emerging Technologies: A Study Of Hydrogen Demand In The Ammonia Industry","idno":"RR_WLD_2026_557"},"data_statement":"All data is temporarily embargoed by the authors. See more information on variable creation in the README file. ","software":[{"name":"Python","version":"3.11.14"},{"name":"Excel"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Estimating Willingness-To-Pay For Emerging Technologies: A Study Of Hydrogen Demand In The Ammonia Industry","date":"2026-03","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2026_557","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2026_557.zip"}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-03-02","abstract":"This study introduces a novel method to quantitatively assess the willingness to pay (WTP) for emerging technologies, such as hydrogen, as substitutes for fossil fuels in industrial production. A three-step framework is developed to derive the WTP function based on industrial competition and market entry theory, relying exclusively on pre-entry market information. First, a system of equations is specified linking domestic consumption, production, and prices to fossil input prices, which proxy marginal production costs. Second, market equilibrium parameters required for numerical WTP estimation are empirically estimated using industry-level data. Third, an industrial competition model incorporating entry by producers adopting new technology is constructed, allowing WTP to be expressed as a function of conventional input costs, operational efficiency, and demand conditions. The framework is applied to hydrogen use in ammonia production, using consumption and trade data from 2000\u20132024 for sixteen major fertilizer-producing countries across four regions. Results highlight substantial cross-country heterogeneity, a binding hydrogen price threshold for large-scale adoption, and the limited effectiveness of carbon policies in accelerating hydrogen uptake.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Ammonia"},{"name":"Industrial Hydrogen Demand"},{"name":"Structural Estimation"},{"name":"Willingness-To-\nPay"}],"topics":[{"id":"L13","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets","parent_id":"L1"},{"id":" L72","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources","parent_id":"L7"},{"id":" Q21","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Demand and Supply \u2022 Prices","parent_id":"Q2"},{"id":" Q31","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Demand and Supply \u2022 Prices","parent_id":"Q3"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Estimating Willingness-To-Pay For Emerging Technologies: A Study Of Hydrogen Demand In The Ammonia Industry"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Jevgenijs Steinbuks","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jsteinbuks@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"World Development Indicators","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","access_type":"Data is publicly available, but since the package is embargoed, the dataset is not included in the reproducibility package","note":"The source was used by the authors to create a single data source, which is the starting point of the reproducibility package. \nFile location: Data_WB_AM_Feb_2026_Replicate\nIndicator: AG.LND.ARBL (Arable land (hectares))","citation":"World Bank. 2025. \"World Development Indicators\" [dataset]. https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators. Indicator accessed: Arable land (hectares).  Accessed September 2025.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets"},{"name":"GlobalData Ammonia Market Data","uri":"https:\/\/developers.lseg.com\/en\/api-catalog\/refinitiv-data-platform\/refinitiv-data-platform-apis","access_type":"Data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package","note":"The source was used by the authors to create a single data source, which is the starting point of the reproducibility package. \nFile location: Data_WB_AM_Feb_2026_Replicate\nVariables: Ammonia production capacity (Capacity mmt), production (Yh mmt), exports, imports, and demand (all in\nmillion tonnes of ammonia, mmt); Country-level ammonia prices (Price y USDt). ","citation":"The London Stock Exchange. 2025. \"GlobalData Ammonia Market Data\" [dataset]. https:\/\/developers.lseg.com\/en\/api-catalog\/refinitiv-data-platform\/refinitiv-data-platform-apis.","license":"LSEG Terms of Use","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.lseg.com\/en\/policies\/website-disclaimer"},{"name":"Commodities Data","uri":"https:\/\/www.lseg.com\/en\/data-analytics\/financial-data\/commodities-data","access_type":"Data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package","note":"The source was used by the authors to create a single data source, which is the starting point of the reproducibility package. \nFile location: Data_WB_AM_Feb_2026_Replicate.xlsx. In addition, the data is embargoed by the authors. \nVariables: Country-level industrial natural gas price (pN Gh). ","citation":"The London Stock Exchange. 2025. \"Commodities Data\" [dataset]. https:\/\/www.lseg.com\/en\/data-analytics\/financial-data\/commodities-data","license":"LSEG Terms of Use","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.lseg.com\/en\/policies\/website-disclaimer"},{"name":"Carbon Prices Data","uri":"https:\/\/climate.ec.europa.eu\/eu-action\/carbon-markets\/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets_en","access_type":"Data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package","note":"The source was used by the authors to create a single data source, which is the starting point of the reproducibility package. \nFile location: Data_WB_AM_Feb_2026_Replicate.xlsx. In addition, the data is embargoed by the authors","citation":"European Union Emissions Trading System. 2025. \"Carbon Prices Data\" [dataset]. https:\/\/climate.ec.europa.eu\/eu-action\/carbon-markets\/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets_en.","license":"Custom License"},{"name":"World Economic Outlook database: April 2025","uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/weo\/weo-database\/2025\/april","access_type":"Data is publicly available, but since the package is embargoed, the dataset is not included in the reproducibility package","note":"The source was used by the authors to create a single data source, which is the starting point of the reproducibility package. \nFile location: Data_WB_AM_Feb_2026_Replicate.xlsx. In addition, the data is embargoed by the authors. \nVariables: GDP per capita (GDP pop) and GDP growth (GDP growth imf), country and world, PopH and PopW. ","citation":"International Monetary Fund. 2025. \"World Economic Outlook database: April 2025\" [dataset]. https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/weo\/weo-database\/2025\/april.","license":"Use of IMF Data","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/about\/copyright-and-terms"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time: 2 minutes","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in the paper:\n\n1. Update the file paths as needed to match your local environment.\n2. Run the `WB_AM_2026_Replicate` Jupyter notebook from start to finish.\n\nAll data and code in this package are currently embargoed. Most results are displayed directly within the Jupyter notebook.\n\nThe package also includes an `Outputs\/` directory containing selected generated figures. Users may use these files to verify the results presented in the paper. Not all tables are saved in the `Outputs\/` folder. Some tables and figures are displayed directly within the Jupyter notebook and were not exported as separate files.\n\nNote: The reproducibility package begins from a single consolidated dataset manually compiled by the authors using the sources listed in the *Dataset* section of this entry and in the README. This compiled dataset serves as the starting point of the analysis.\n\n","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: MacOS\n\u2022 Chip: M4 Pro.\n\u2022 Memory available: 24 GB"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Restricted Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}