{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-03-10","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Claudia Ruiz Ortega","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"cruizortega@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Martin Melecky","affiliation":"Word Bank","email":"mmelecky@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Asset Bizhan","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"abizhan@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Ganbaatar Jambal","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"gjambal@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Do State SME Programs Work? Evidence From Loan Subsidies And Credit Guarantees In Kazakhstan","idno":"RR_KAZ_2026_559"},"data_statement":"All data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file. ","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"18 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Do State SME Programs Work? Evidence From Loan Subsidies And Credit Guarantees In Kazakhstan","date":"2026-03","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_KAZ_2026_559","zip_package":"RR_KAZ_2026_559.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-03-10","abstract":"This paper evaluates the employment and sales effects of two widely used SME financial support instruments, interest rate subsidies and credit guarantees, using administrative program data from Kazakhstan matched to the universe of firms. Utilizing staggered intervention rollouts and a difference-in-differences design, the analysis reveals significant differences across program designs and local labor market conditions. Interest rate subsidies, despite their large fiscal cost, fail to improve firm performance: beneficiary firms experience a 10 percent decline in employment and no significant increase in sales. Fully subsidized credit guarantees show no discernible effects on sales or employment. By contrast, a market-aligned, fee-based partial credit guarantee that ensures lender and borrower risk-sharing increases employment by 24 percent and sales by 21 percent, with particularly stronger effects among women-led and formally incorporated businesses. These employment gains are substantially larger in regions with higher pre-program unemployment, suggesting that well-designed credit guarantees are more likely to generate net job creation in labor markets with greater slack, rather than merely reallocating workers across firms. Overall, the findings underscore the pivotal role of incentive-compatible program design and local labor market conditions in determining the effectiveness of SME finance policies.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Kazakhstan","code":"KAZ"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Access To Finance"},{"name":"Msmes"},{"name":"Partial Credit Guarantees"},{"name":"Interest Rate Subsidies"},{"name":"Job Creation"}],"topics":[{"id":"G28","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Government Policy and Regulation","parent_id":"G2"},{"id":" O12","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development","parent_id":"O1"},{"id":" O16","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Financial Markets \u2022 Saving and Capital Investment \u2022 Corporate Finance and Governance","parent_id":"O1"},{"id":" H81","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Governmental Loans \u2022 Loan Guarantees \u2022 Credits \u2022 Grants \u2022 Bailouts","parent_id":"H8"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Do State SME Programs Work? Evidence From Loan Subsidies And Credit Guarantees In Kazakhstan"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: 20 minutes","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Claudia Ruiz Ortega","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"cruizortega@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Firm Census data","note":"Source: National Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan\nData access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","access_type":"Data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package. ","citation":"National Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan (2025). Firm Census data [dataset]. [Restricted]"},{"name":"Administrative Program Records data","note":"Source: DAMU Entrepreneurship Development Fund\nData access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","access_type":"Data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package. ","citation":"National Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan (2025). Firm Census data [dataset]. [Restricted]"}],"reproduction_instructions":"Since all data used in the analysis are restricted, the reproducibility review was conducted through virtual verification following the [Virtual Reproducibility Verification Protocols](https:\/\/worldbank.github.io\/wb-reproducible-research-repository\/guidance\/virtual_reproducibility_verification_protocol.html).\n\nTo reproduce the findings in this paper, a user must:\n1. **Obtain access to the restricted data**: The data used in this paper are restricted and require special permissions. \n2. **Adjust file paths and run the code**: Update the directory specified in line 1 of `master.do` and run the script. All outputs will be generated in the `output` folder.  \nBecause access to the restricted data may not be possible for most users, this package includes the outputs generated by the author and verified by the reviewers. These files can be used to review and validate the results presented in the paper.\n","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 16.0 GB"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}