{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-03-17","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Migle Petrauskaite","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mpetrauskaite@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Hector Pollitt","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"hpollitt@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Xinru Lin","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"xlin5@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for At The Edge Of Risk:\nAssessing Mongolia\u2019s \u2018Plausible Worst-Case\u2019 Scenario","idno":"RR_MNG_2026_591"},"data_statement":"Some data is limited-access and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.","software":[{"name":"Python","version":"3.11.7"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for At The Edge Of Risk:\nAssessing Mongolia\u2019s \u2018Plausible Worst-Case\u2019 Scenario","date":"2026-03","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_MNG_2026_591","zip_package":"RR_MNG_2026_591.zip"}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-03-17","abstract":"This paper develops a plausible worst-case scenario for Mongolia in which three major disasters\u2014a sudden collapse in coal exports to China, a prolonged dzud, and a severe flood in Ulaanbaatar\u2014occur in quick succession. While each event has precedent in Mongolia, an increasingly unstable climate raises the likelihood of their overlap within the next 20 years. Conventional estimates of climate damages fail to capture the country\u2019s exposure to compounding economic shocks, which could undermine development and disproportionately affect vulnerable groups. This analysis finds that the convergence of these three crises could result in a 20 percent negative shock to annual GDP over a three-year period, severely disrupting output and employment. The findings underscore the need for policy decisions based on worst-case scenarios rather than mean projections, emphasizing proactive adaptation measures to mitigate systemic risks. The paper highlights key vulnerabilities and calls for a shift from reactive crisis response to strategic preparedness, multi-sectoral coordination, and resilience planning to safeguard Mongolia\u2019s economic future.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Mongolia","code":"MNG"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Climate Risk"},{"name":"Cascading Disasters"},{"name":"Scenario Modeling"}],"topics":[{"id":"D81","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty","parent_id":"D8"},{"id":" E17","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications","parent_id":"E1"},{"id":" Q51","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Valuation of Environmental Effects","parent_id":"Q5"},{"id":" Q54","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Climate \u2022 Natural Disasters and Their Management \u2022 Global Warming","parent_id":"Q5"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"At The Edge Of Risk:\nAssessing Mongolia\u2019s \u2018Plausible Worst-Case\u2019 Scenario"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time: ~ 1 hour","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Migle Petrauskaite","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mpetrauskaite@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (4 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 32 GB","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See subsection Datasets for more details.\n2. **Download and Place Data:** Once the data is accessed, users should place it in the appropriate folder.\n3. **Run the Package:** After placing the data in the folder, recreate the environment using the requirenments.txt file and run the file run.cmd.\n\nSince all the data is not included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper. ","datasets":[{"name":"Global Resource Input Output Assessment (GLORIA) database","uri":" https:\/\/ielab.info\/labs\/ielab-gloria","citation":"Industrial Ecology Virtual Lab. 2021. \u201cGlobal Resource Input Output Assessment (GLORIA) database\u201d. https:\/\/ielab.info\/assets\/resources\/Technical_Documentation_GLORIA_20210913.pdf\n","note":"Data accessed in April 2023 (version v57). The GLORIA (Global Resource Input-Output Assessment) database is a Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) database that was built using the IELab infrastructure, by the University of Sydney for the UN International Resource Panel (UN IRP) in the context of the update of the material footprint accounts forming part of the\u202fUN IRP Material Flows Database .\nFile Location: Gloria_db\/","access_type":"Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.","license_uri":"https:\/\/ielab.info\/about-terms"},{"name":"MINDSET 2.0 Model Input Data (GLORIA Template)","citation":"Kiss-Dobronyi, Bence and Brancher, Marco and Dorband, Ira Irina and Pollitt, Hector and Byambasuren, Binderiya and Lin, Xinru and Hartvig, \u00c1ron D\u00e9nes and Lehr, Ulrike, MINDSET 2.0 Model [dataset]. March 2026. Forthcoming on Development Data Hub.","access_type":"Data is forthcoming in the World Bank Development Data Hub.","note":"Data accessed in March 2026. Documentation can be found at https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6188978 \nFile Location: Gloria_template directory and sub-directories (except \u2018Scenarios\u2019)"},{"name":"Scenario Input Files (Mongolia Worst-Case)","note":"Data compiled by the authors. Each file sets up part of the worst-case scenario for Mongolia. Y1, Y2, and Y3 in  the file names indicate the year of the shock. Coal shocks are modeled as a direct loss of  final demand, while the flood shock (year 3) and dzud impacts capture net trade effects \u2014  either lost exports or lost production replaced by imports. Dzud impacts are derived by \nsubtracting the coal and flood shocks from the full scenario totals. All scenario changes  are made to the worksheet \"fd_trade\", with inputs defined by sector using the GLORIA classification.\n\nFiles: Scenarios folder (MNG_worst_case_coal_Y1.xlsx, MNG_worst_case_coal_Y2.xlsx, MNG_worst_case_coal_Y3.xlsx, MNG_worst_case_flood.xlsx, MNG_worst_case_Y1.xlsx, MNG_worst_case_Y2.xlsx, MNG_worst_case_Y3.xlsx)","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Petrauskaite, M., Pollitt, H., and Lin, X. (2026). Scenario Input Files (Mongolia Worst-Case) [dataset]. March 2026."}]},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}