{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-03-30","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Daniel Gerszon Mahler","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"dmahler@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Umar Serajuddin","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"userajuddin@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Divyanshi Wadhwa","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"dwadhwa@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Nishant Yonzan","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"nyonzan@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for The World Is Developing At Its Slowest Pace In 75 Years","idno":"RR_WLD_2026_575"},"data_statement":"Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.","software":[{"name":"R","version":"4.5.1"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for The World Is Developing At Its Slowest Pace In 75 Years","date":"2026-03","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2026_575","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2026_575.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-03-30","abstract":"Understanding and accurately measuring societal progress is crucial for guiding policy and development efforts. In this paper, we introduce a new method to measure societal progress that is comparable across different stages of development, time periods, and indicators. Utilizing this method, we analyze six key indicators of development with cross-country data from 1950 and find that the world is developing at its slowest pace in 75 years. This slowdown has already caused large development losses and will cause global poverty to increase if it continues. We identify 54 countries that are more than 100 years away from reaching standards associated with graduating to developed country status if they continue at their current pace. Our framework can be used to set development targets at various levels of ambition for every country and globally. The method involves specific data requirements, which means it is not suitable in all contexts.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Societal Progress"},{"name":"Development Indicators"},{"name":"Development Targets"}],"topics":[{"id":"O10","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"O1"},{"id":" O15","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Human Resources \u2022 Human Development \u2022 Income Distribution \u2022 Migration","parent_id":"O1"},{"id":" C14","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General","parent_id":"C1"},{"id":" Q0","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"Q"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"The World Is Developing At Its Slowest Pace In 75 Years"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: 14 hours.","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Daniel Gerszon Mahler","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"dmahler@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"World Bank country classification","note":"Source: World Bank, Global Poverty & Inequality Data team (GPID).\nAccess date: January 2026.\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/class\/CLASS.dta.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/GPID-WB\/Class","citation":"Global Poverty and Inequality Data Lab (GPID), World Bank. (2026). CLASS [Dataset]. Available at: https:\/\/github.com\/GPID-WB\/Class\/blob\/master\/OutputData\/CLASS.dta. Accessed in January 2026."},{"name":"Development Assistance Committee (DAC) countries","note":"Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).\nAccess date: January 2026.\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/class\/DAC.xlsx.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution BY 4.0 licence (CC BY 4.0)","uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/topics\/sub-issues\/oda-eligibility-and-conditions\/dac-list-of-oda-recipients.html","citation":"Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2026). DAC list of ODA recipients: Countries, territories and international organisations. Available at: https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/topics\/sub-issues\/oda-eligibility-and-conditions\/dac-list-of-oda-recipients.html. Accessed in January 2026.","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"name":"UNCTAD classification","note":"Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Data Hub.\nAccess date: January 2026.\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/class\/Dim_countries_Hierarchy_UnctadStat_All_Flat.csv.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO","uri":"https:\/\/unctadstat.unctad.org\/EN\/Classifications\/Dim_Countries_Hierarchy_UnctadStat_All_Flat.csv","citation":"United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2026). UNCTADstat country classification (economies) [dataset]. Available at: https:\/\/unctadstat.unctad.org\/EN\/Classifications\/Dim_Countries_Hierarchy_UnctadStat_All_Flat.csv. Accessed in January 2026.","license_uri":"https:\/\/unctadstat.unctad.org\/UnctadStatMetadata\/Documentation\/UNCTAD_CreativeCommonsLicense3.0_IGO_EN.pdf"},{"name":"Human Development Index 2025","note":"Source: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).\nAccess date: January 2026.\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/class\/HDR25_Composite_indices_complete_time_series.csv and 01-inputdata\/education\/HDR25_Composite_indices_complete_time_series.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO","uri":"https:\/\/hdr.undp.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2025_HDR\/HDR25_Composite_indices_complete_time_series.csv","citation":"United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2026). All composite indices and components time series (1990\u20132023) [dataset]. Available at: https:\/\/hdr.undp.org\/data-center\/documentation-and-downloads. Accessed in January 2026.","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/igo\/legalcode"},{"name":"IMF metadata","note":"Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF).\nAccess date: January 2026.\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/class\/Metadata_Oct2024.xlsx.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/datamapper\/Metadata_Oct2024.xlsx","citation":"International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024). DataMapper metadata (October 2024). Available at: https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/datamapper\/Metadata_Oct2024.xlsx. Accessed in January 2026."},{"name":"Historical educational attainment","note":"Source: Barro and Lee (2013).\nAccess date: January 2026.\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/education\/BL_v3_MF1564.csv.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/barrolee\/BarroLeeDataSet\/blob\/master\/BLData\/BL_v3_MF1564.csv","citation":"Barro, Robert J., and Jong Wha Lee. 2013. A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950\u20132010. Journal of Development Economics 104: 184\u2013198. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jdeveco.2012.10.001."},{"name":"Maddison Project Database","note":"Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre.\nAccess date: January 2026.\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/gdp\/maddison2023_web.dta.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License","uri":"https:\/\/dataverse.nl\/api\/access\/datafile\/421303","citation":"MPD version 2023: Bolt, Jutta and Jan Luiten van Zanden (2024), \"Maddison style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update\", Journal of Economic Surveys, 1\u201341. DOI: 10.1111\/joes.12618. Accessed in January 2026.","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"name":"World Development Indicators (WDI)","note":"Source: World Bank.\nAccess date: January 10, 2026. \nIndicators used: GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) (NY.GDP.PCAP.KD), GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2021 international $) (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD), Cereal yield (kg per hectare) (AG\u200b.YLD\u200b.CREL\u200b.KG), Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population) (EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS), Access to electricity, rural (% of rural population) (EG\u200b.ELC\u200b.ACCS\u200b.RU\u200b.ZS), Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) (IT.CEL.SETS.P2), Individuals using the Internet (% of population) (IT\u200b.NET\u200b.USER\u200b.ZS), Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2021 international $) (NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.KD), School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) (SE.TER.ENR), Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) (SH.DYN.MORT), People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population) (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population) (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) (SH.IMM.IDPT), Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months) (SH.IMM.MEAS), People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population) (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population) (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Prevalence of stunting, height for age (modeled estimate, % of children under 5) (SH\u200b.STA\u200b.STNT\u200b.ME\u200b.ZS), Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) (SH.TBS.INCD), Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) (SL.EMP.VULN.ZS), Employment in services (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) (SL.SRV.EMPL.ZS), Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS).\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/gdp\/wdi.Rda and 01-inputdata\/wdi\/wdi.Rda.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY 4.0)","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","citation":"World Bank. (2026). World Development Indicators [dataset]. World Bank. Available at https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators. Accessed on January 10, 2026.","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"name":"WDI metadata","note":"Source: Author\u2019s construction.\nDescription: Indicator names, labels, and directions.\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/wdi\/metadata.xlsx.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Women\u2019s Political Empowerment","note":"Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project, downloaded via the vdemdata package.\nAccess date: January 2026.\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/gender\/vdem.Rda.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License CC-BY-SA-license","citation":"Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan I. Lindberg, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Fabio Angiolillo, Michael Bernhard, Agnes Cornell, M. Steven Fish, Linnea Fox, Lisa Gastaldi, Haakon Gjerl\u00f8w, Adam Glynn, Ana Good God, Sandra Grahn, Allen Hicken, Katrin Kinzelbach, Joshua Krusell, Kyle L. Marquardt, Kelly McMann, Valeriya Mechkova, Juraj Medzihorsky, Natalia Natsika, Anja Neundorf, Pamela Paxton, Daniel Pemstein, Johannes von R\u00f6mer, Brigitte Seim, Rachel Sigman, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jeffrey Staton, Aksel Sundstr\u00f6m, Marcus Tannenberg, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, Felix Wiebrecht, Tore Wig, Steven Wilson and Daniel Ziblatt. 2025. \"Country-Year: V-Dem Full+Others version 15\" Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.23696\/vdemds25.","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/4.0\/deed.en"},{"name":"PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2024) v2.7","note":"Source: PRIMAP (Potsdam Real-Time Integrated Model for the probabilistic Assessment of emission Paths). G\u00fctschow, Busch, and Pfl\u00fcger (2025).\nAccess date: January 2026.\nFile location: 01-intputdata\/ghggdp\/Guetschow_et_al_2025a-PRIMAP-hist_v2.7_final_22-Aug-2025.csv.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International","uri":"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/records\/17090760\/files\/Guetschow_et_al_2025a-PRIMAP-hist_v2.7_final_22-Aug-2025.csv?download=1","citation":"G\u00fctschow, Johannes; Busch, Daniel; Pfl\u00fcger, Mika (2025): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2024) v2.7. Zenodo. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.17090760. Accessed in January 2026.","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/4.0\/deed.en"},{"name":"UN World Population Prospects 2024","note":"Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.\nAccess date: January 2026.\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/lifeexpectancy-population\/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO","uri":"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/assets\/Excel%20Files\/1_Indicator%20(Standard)\/EXCEL_FILES\/1_General\/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx","citation":"United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition. Accessed in January 2026.","license_uri":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/igo\/"},{"name":"UNSD Energy Stats Database","note":"Source: United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), Energy Statistics Division.\nAccess date: January 2026.\nFile location: 01-inputdata\/electricity\/","access_type":"Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package. The database can be ordered through United Nations Shop. Requests from Government institutions are considered on a case by case basis and should be sent to: energy_stat@un.org.","uri":"https:\/\/unstats.un.org\/unsd\/energystats\/data\/","citation":"United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD). (2025). Energy Statistics Database. Available at https:\/\/unstats.un.org\/unsd\/energystats\/data\/."},{"name":"Comparable welfare data","note":"File location: 01-inputdata\/poverty\/*.\nData are deposited in the Development Data Hub and are available to World Bank staff. For external users, access can be granted upon request to dmahler@worldbank.org. Please note that the data URL is accessible only to World Bank staff.","access_type":"Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/int\/data\/dataset\/0067047\/comparable_welfare_vectors","citation":"Mahler, Daniel Gerszon; Foster, Elizabeth; Lakner, Christoph; Prinsloo, Zander; Tchouakam Mbouendeu, Rostand; Tetteh-Baah, Samuel K. (2025). Comparable welfare vectors [dataset]."}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB","reproduction_instructions":"Once users have access to all the data, to reproduce the findings, a new user needs to:\n1. Run the `00-master.R` script."},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Daniel Gerszon","familyName":"Mahler","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]},{"givenName":"Umar","familyName":"Serajuddin","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]},{"givenName":"Divyanshi","familyName":"Wadhwa","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]},{"givenName":"Nishant","familyName":"Yonzan","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for The World Is Developing At Its Slowest Pace In 75 Years"},{"title":"RR_WLD_2026_575","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_WLD_2026_575","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}