{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-04-06","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Ali Ahmad","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"aahmad10@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Project-Level Learning Lowers Conflict Cost Premium Of Energy Access","idno":"RR_YEM_2026_609"},"data_statement":"Some data is not yet publicly available but is expected to be made available through the World Bank Microdata Library in the future.\n","software":[{"name":"Python","version":"3.11"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Project-Level Learning Lowers Conflict Cost Premium Of Energy Access","date":"2026-04","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_YEM_2026_609","zip_package":"RR_YEM_2026_609.zip"}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-04-06","abstract":"Energy access in conflict-affected states carries a cost premium \u2014 yet there is little evidence of its magnitude and whether it can, at least partially, be mitigated. Analyzing 923 World Bank-financed solar PV installations across Yemen between 2019 and 2025, this analysis finds that project-level learning systematically reduces conflict-linked costs, including in the most volatile regions. The aggregate price decomposition attributes 16.8 percentage points of cost reduction to project-level factors. More generally, a Shapley Machine Learning decomposition of project-level cost variation confirms that project-level learning is the most powerful predictor, explaining 45.2% of cost variation. Critically, the conflict-cost relationship evolves over successive procurement cycles: early packages exhibit a significant positive conflict premium, which is gradually mitigated. Cost trajectories converge regardless of whether governorates experienced escalating or de-escalating violence, confirming that learning operates independently of security trends.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Yemen","code":"YEM"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Yemen"},{"name":"Energy Access"},{"name":"Learning"},{"name":"Distributed Energy"},{"name":"Fcv"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Project-Level Learning Lowers Conflict Cost Premium Of Energy Access"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: 5 minutes","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Ali Ahmad","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"aahmad10@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Project-Level Learning Lowers Conflict Cost Premium of Energy Access","note":"Source: World Bank \/ UNOPS Yemen Emergency Electricity Access Project (YEEAP), Phases I & II.\nThe data used in this study include 923 World Bank-financed solar PV installation records (June 2019\u2013December 2025) from YEEAP-I and YEEAP-II, covering facility type, governorate, capacity, procurement package, and unit cost. The dataset is forthcoming in the World Bank Microdata Library.\nFiles location: data\/raw\/YEEAPII_Projects.xlsx; data\/raw\/YEEAP-data.xlsx; data\/raw\/YEEAP_data_contractors.xlsx.","access_type":"Data is not yet publicly available but is expected to be made available through the World Bank Microdata Library under a \"Licensed\" option, and it is not included in the reproducibility package. ","license":"Licensed files","license_uri":"https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/terms-of-use#licensed","uri":"Forthcoming https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org","citation":"Ahmad, Ali. (2026). Project-Level Learning Lowers Conflict Cost Premium of Energy Access [dataset]. Forthcoming https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org"},{"name":"Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) \u2013 Yemen","note":"Source: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).\nGovernorate \u00d7 month \u00d7 event-type conflict counts for Yemen. \nYears: 2015-2026.\nEven types: \nBattles;\nExplosions\/Remote violence;\nProtests;\nRiot;\nViolence against civilians;\nStrategic developments.\nFiles location: data\/raw\/acled_counts_by_governorate_month_event_type.csv.","access_type":"Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution, and it's not included in the reproducibility package. ","license":"ACLED End User License Agreement","license_uri":"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/eula","uri":"https:\/\/acleddata.com\/conflict-data","citation":"ACLED. (2026). Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) \u2013 Yemen 2015-2026 [dataset]. Available at https:\/\/acleddata.com"}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. Obtain the licensed YEEAP data files and place them under data\/raw. See the `Data` section for details.\n2. Restore the Python environment:\n   `conda env create -f environment.yml`\n   `conda activate rr_yem_2026`\n3. Run the pipeline scripts sequentially from the code\/ directory:\n   `python 01_data_preparation.py`\n   `python 02_conflict_intensity.py`\n   `python 03_cost_decomposition.py`\n   `python 04_regression_analysis.py`\n   `python 05_contractor_heterogeneity.py`\n   `python 06_shap_analysis.py`\n   `python 07_battery_rationalization.py`\n   `python generate_all_figures.py`\nNote: Since the data is not included in the package and is not yet publicly available, the replicator's outputs are included in the folder `outputs` for users to compare with the published manuscript. ","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: MacOS\n\u2022 Processor: Apple M4 Pro\n\u2022 Memory available: 24 GB\n"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Ali","familyName":"Ahmad","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Project-Level Learning Lowers Conflict Cost Premium Of Energy Access"},{"title":"RR_YEM_2026_609","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_YEM_2026_609","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Forthcoming Data"},{"tag":"Open Code"}],"schematype":"script"}