{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-04-03","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Abdulrasheed Isah","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"aisah@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Jun Rentschler","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jrentschler@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Robin Middelanis","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"rmiddelanis@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Paolo Avner","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"pavner@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Stephane Hallegatte","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"shallegatte@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Worldwide Job Losses Due To Natural Hazards","idno":"RR_WLD_2026_605"},"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package. ","software":[{"name":"Python","version":"3.11"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Worldwide Job Losses Due To Natural Hazards","date":"2026-04","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2026_605","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2026_605.zip","source_code_repo":"Model used in this package: https:\/\/github.com\/rmiddelanis\/global-unbreakable-model"}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-04-03","abstract":"Natural hazards can profoundly disrupt economies, yet their impact on employment remains underexplored. This study quantifies job losses due to floods, earthquakes, winds and storm surges, tsunamis, and heat across 132 countries, using a full-time job equivalent losses (JEL) estimation approach. Results show that fast-onset natural shocks cause 9.4 million JEL annually, predominantly due to earthquakes and floods, with burdens concentrated in East Asia and the Pacific, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, extreme heat is associated with 79.7 million JEL annually across 114 countries, between 2015 and 2024, with the burdens concentrated in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Overall, low-income countries experience the highest job loss rate per capita. Within countries, the poorest population group bears a disproportionate share of JEL. These results highlight the urgent need for targeted adaptation and resilience measures that safeguard workers, jobs, and productivity to support economic development.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Natural Hazards"},{"name":"Job Equivalent Losses"}],"topics":[{"id":"Q50","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"Q5"},{"id":" Q54","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Climate \u2022 Natural Disasters and Their Management \u2022 Global Warming","parent_id":"Q5"},{"id":" J23","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Labor Demand","parent_id":"J2"},{"id":" J63","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Turnover \u2022 Vacancies \u2022 Layoffs","parent_id":"J6"},{"id":" I30","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"I3"},{"id":" O15","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Human Resources \u2022 Human Development \u2022 Income Distribution \u2022 Migration","parent_id":"O1"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Worldwide Job Losses Due To Natural Hazards"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: 70 minutes. ","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Abdulrasheed Isah","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"aisah@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Household Simulation Results","note":"Household-level simulation outputs generated by the Global Unbreakable Model, including welfare loss estimates by country, quintile, and hazard type. The portion of code and data needed to run the model is included in the replication package. Output file: JEL.csv. The code and model inputs needed to reproduce this output are included in the replication package. In addition, the data generated by the replication code (calculate_JEL.py) is already included in the package. ","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/rmiddelanis\/UB-jobs\/tree\/main\/output","license":"Public Repository","citation":"Middelanis, R. et al. Global Unbreakable Model \u2014 Simulation Outputs [dataset]. Available at https:\/\/github.com\/rmiddelanis\/UB-jobs\/tree\/main\/data\/model_data\/simulation_outputs","access_type":"Data are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Country-Level Macro Indicators","note":"Country-level macroeconomic parameters used as inputs to the Global Unbreakable Model. File location: macro.csv.","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/rmiddelanis\/UB-jobs\/tree\/main\/data\/model_data\/simulation_outputs","license":"Public Repository","citation":"Middelanis, R. et al. Global Unbreakable Model \u2014 Model Data [dataset]. Available at https:\/\/github.com\/rmiddelanis\/UB-jobs\/tree\/main\/data\/model_data\/simulation_outputs","access_type":"Data are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Working Time Statistics","note":"Average weekly working hours by country, sourced from ILOSTAT. File location: weekly_work_hours.csv. Access date: December 19, 2025.","uri":"https:\/\/ilostat.ilo.org\/topics\/working-time\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.ilo.org\/rights-and-permissions","citation":"International Labour Organization. (2025). Working Time Statistics [dataset]. ILOSTAT. Available at https:\/\/ilostat.ilo.org\/topics\/working-time\/. Access date: December 19, 2025.","access_type":"Data are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"World Development Indicators","note":"Files location: macro_ilo.csv; employment_pop_ratio.csv.\nIndicators: Employment-to-Population Ratio; Country-level data on population; World Bank income group","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","citation":"World Bank. (2025). World Development Indicators [dataset]. World Bank DataBank. Available at https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","access_type":"Data are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"Lancet Countdown 2025 Report \u2014 Work Hours Lost Indicator","note":"Annual work hours lost by country due to extreme heat exposure, sourced from the Lancet Countdown 2025 Report. File location: hours_lost_ilo.csv. Access date: February 1, 2026.","uri":"https:\/\/lancetcountdown.org\/use-our-data\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/lancetcountdown.org\/use-our-data\/","citation":"Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change. (2025). Lancet Countdown 2025 Report \u2014 Work Hours Lost Indicator [dataset]. Available at https:\/\/lancetcountdown.org\/explore-our-data\/. Access date: February 1, 2026.","access_type":"Data are publicly available and included in the replication package."},{"name":"Statistics on earnings and labour income","note":"Labor wages by country compiled from multiple sources: ILOSTAT (primary source), China National Bureau of Statistics, and OECD. The following sources were used: (1) ILO Labour Statistics \u2014 Wages | URL: https:\/\/ilostat.ilo.org\/topics\/wages\/; (2) China National Bureau of Statistics Press Release | URL: https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/PressRelease\/202505\/t20250520_1959885.html; (3) OECD Average Annual Wages | URL: https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/data\/indicators\/average-annual-wages.html. File location: ilo_wages.csv. Access date: February 1, 2026.","uri":"https:\/\/ilostat.ilo.org\/topics\/wages\/","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.ilo.org\/rights-and-permissions","citation":"International Labour Organization. (2026). Statistics on earnings and labour income [dataset]. ILOSTAT. Available at https:\/\/ilostat.ilo.org\/topics\/wages\/. Access date: February 1, 2026.","access_type":"Data are publicly available and included in the replication package."},{"citation":"National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2025).  Average Annual Wages of Persons Employed in Urban Units in 2024 [dataset]. Available at: https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/PressRelease\/202505\/t20250520_1959885.html.","name":"Average Annual Wages of Persons Employed in Urban Units in 2024","note":"Labor wages by country compiled from multiple sources: ILOSTAT (primary source), China National Bureau of Statistics, and OECD. The following sources were used: (1) ILO Labour Statistics \u2014 Wages | URL: https:\/\/ilostat.ilo.org\/topics\/wages\/; (2) China National Bureau of Statistics Press Release | URL: https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/PressRelease\/202505\/t20250520_1959885.html; (3) OECD Average Annual Wages | URL: https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/data\/indicators\/average-annual-wages.html. File location: ilo_wages.csv. Access date: February 1, 2026.","access_type":"Data are publicly available and included in the replication package.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/nbs\/200701\/t20070104_59236.html","uri":"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/PressRelease\/202505\/t20250520_1959885.html","license":"National Bureau of Statistics of China Terms of Service"},{"name":"Average Annual Wages","citation":"Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2025). Average Annual Wages [dataset]. Available at: https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/data\/indicators\/average-annual-wages.html. Access date: February 1, 2026.","note":"Labor wages by country compiled from multiple sources: ILOSTAT (primary source), China National Bureau of Statistics, and OECD. The following sources were used: (1) ILO Labour Statistics \u2014 Wages | URL: https:\/\/ilostat.ilo.org\/topics\/wages\/; (2) China National Bureau of Statistics Press Release | URL: https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/PressRelease\/202505\/t20250520_1959885.html; (3) OECD Average Annual Wages | URL: https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/data\/indicators\/average-annual-wages.html. File location: ilo_wages.csv. Access date: February 1, 2026.","access_type":"Data are publicly available and included in the replication package.","uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/data\/indicators\/average-annual-wages.html","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/about\/terms-conditions.html","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license"},{"name":"World Country Shapefile ","note":"1:110m resolution country boundaries shapefile used for choropleth maps. File location: ne_110m_admin_0_countries.zip. Access date: March 24, 2026.","uri":"https:\/\/naciscdn.org\/naturalearth\/110m\/cultural\/ne_110m_admin_0_countries.zip","license":"Natural Earth Terms of Use","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.naturalearthdata.com\/about\/terms-of-use\/","citation":"Natural Earth. (2026). World Country Shapefile: Admin 0 \u2013 Countries, 1:110m [shapefile]. Available at https:\/\/naciscdn.org\/naturalearth\/110m\/cultural\/ne_110m_admin_0_countries.zip","access_type":"Data are publicly available and included in the replication package."}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, there are two options:\n\n**Option 1 \u2014 Run the notebooks directly**\n\nThe outputs of `calculate_JEL.py` (`JEL.csv`, `macro.csv`, and related files) needed to run the main code are already included in `data\/raw\/`. Run the notebooks in order:\n\n1. `code\/JEL_Main.ipynb` \u2014 generates Figures 1\u20134 and supplementary tables\n2. `code\/JEL_Main_Heat.ipynb` \u2014 generates Figure 5\n\nOutputs are saved to `output\/figures\/` and `output\/tables\/`.\n\n**Option 2 \u2014 Run the full process from raw data**\n\nThe first part of the replication (`calculate_JEL.py`) generates the input files for the notebooks by running the Global Unbreakable Model. Note that this step depends on a live GitHub repository ([github.com\/rmiddelanis\/UB-jobs](https:\/\/github.com\/rmiddelanis\/UB-jobs)); if it has been updated since replication, results may differ from those in the paper. The outputs generated at the time of replication are included in `data\/raw\/`, along with a data hash report (`data_hash_report.csv`), to support data integrity checks.\n\n1. Clone the submodule (the `lib\/global-unbreakable-model` folder is empty in the zip distribution): `git clone https:\/\/github.com\/rmiddelanis\/global-unbreakable-model.git`\n2. Run the model: `calculate_JEL.py`.\n3. Copy outputs to `data\/raw\/`.\n4. Run the notebooks in order:\n   1. `code\/JEL_Main.ipynb` \u2014 generates Figures 1\u20134 and supplementary tables\n   2. `code\/JEL_Main_Heat.ipynb` \u2014 generates Figure 5","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Mac OS.\n\u2022 Chip: Apple M4 Pro\n\u2022 Memory available: 24 GB\n\u2022 Software version: Python 3.11"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Abdulrasheed","familyName":"Isah","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]},{"givenName":"Jun","familyName":"Rentschler","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]},{"givenName":"Robin","familyName":"Middelanis","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]},{"givenName":"Paolo","familyName":"Avner","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]},{"givenName":"Stephane","familyName":"Hallegatte","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Worldwide Job Losses Due To Natural Hazards"},{"title":"RR_WLD_2026_605","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_WLD_2026_605","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open Data"}],"schematype":"script"}