{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-04-20","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Arti Grover","affiliation":"International Finance Corporation","email":"agrover1@ifc.org"},{"name":"Pierre-Louis Vezina","affiliation":"Kings College, London","email":"pierre-louis.vezina@kcl.ac.uk"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for The Impact Of Conflict On Foreign Investments: Evidence From Project-Level Data","idno":"RR_WLD_2026_629"},"data_statement":"Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file. ","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"18.0 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for The Impact Of Conflict On Foreign Investments: Evidence From Project-Level Data","date":"2026-04","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2026_629","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2026_629.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-04-20","abstract":"This paper examines how armed conflict affects the global allocation of foreign direct investment using monthly conflict fatality data matched with project-level greenfield Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) from 2010\u20132023. The presence of an armed conflict is associated with a decline in the number of greenfield projects (16.5%), FDI associated jobs (15.6%), the number of origin countries (12.4%), and the number of sectors (15.6%). The sensitivity of FDI to conflicts has intensified during 2020\u20132023, especially so for one-sided violence against civilians. Conflict fatalities that are geographically dispersed within a country are more strongly negatively correlated with FDI, while conflict in neighboring countries also deters FDI.  Across sectors, we find that semiconductor and biotech investments are most sensitive to conflict, while sectors like coal, oil, & gas are less affected. A synthetic counterfactual analysis of Ukraine reveals that it lost approximately 10,000 jobs annually that were directly associated with FDI following the 2014 annexation of Crimea. These patterns quantify the role of conflict in perpetuating development traps and highlight the broader economic stakes it has for development policy.\n","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Fdi"},{"name":"Mergers"},{"name":"Acquisitions"},{"name":"Conflict"}],"topics":[{"id":"F14","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Empirical Studies of Trade","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" F16","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Trade and Labor Market Interactions","parent_id":"F1"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"The Impact Of Conflict On Foreign Investments: Evidence From Project-Level Data"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Arti Grover","affiliation":"International Finance Corporation","email":"agrover1@ifc.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"fDiMarkets Greenfield FDI Database","note":"Data accessed in March 2025. Variables used: project count, FDI-induced jobs, capital expenditure (CAPEX), origin and destination country, sector, and announcement date. Institutional access required. File location: data\/FDI_Jan2003toJun2024_cleaned.dta.","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license_uri":"http:\/\/terms.ftspecialist.com\/#tabContent4","uri":"https:\/\/www.fdimarkets.com\/","citation":"Financial Times. 2025. \"fDiMarkets Greenfield FDI Database\" [dataset]. https:\/\/www.fdimarkets.com\/. Accessed March 2025."},{"name":"Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions Database","note":"Data accessed in 2023. Variables used: number of completed cross-border M&A deals, deal value, origin and destination country, and date of completion. Institutional access required. File location: data\/ma1962_2022.dta.","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.lseg.com\/en\/policies\/website-terms-of-use","uri":"https:\/\/www.lseg.com\/en\/data-analytics\/financial-data\/company-data","citation":"Refinitiv Eikon. 2023. \"Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions\" [dataset]. https:\/\/www.lseg.com\/en\/data-analytics\/financial-data\/company-data. Accessed 2023."},{"name":"UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED): Version 25.1","note":"Data accessed in 2025. Variables used: fatalities (best estimate), conflict type (state-based, non-state, one-sided), geographic coordinates, date of event, and country. File location: data\/GEDEvent_v25_1.dta.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"CC BY 4.0","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/ucdp.uu.se\/downloads\/","citation":"(1) Davies, S., Pettersson, T., Sollenberg, M., & \u00d6berg, M. (2025). Organized violence 1989\u20132024, and the challenges of identifying civilian victims. Journal of Peace Research, 62(4).\n(2) Sundberg, Ralph and Erik Melander (2013) Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 50(4)."},{"name":"PRIO-GRID Static and Yearly Variables","note":"Data accessed on January 29, 2026. Variables used: total land area, GW country code (2014), geographic coordinates of each grid cell, and country assignment per grid cell. Grid cell identifiers at 0.5\u00b0 resolution used to compute geographic spread of conflict (share of cells affected; Herfindahl Index of fatality concentration). File location: data. \nFiles: PRIO-GRID Static Variables - 2026-01-29.csv; PRIO-GRID Yearly Variables for 2014-2014 - 2026-01-29 (1).csv.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Open access","license_uri":"https:\/\/grid.prio.org\/#\/codebook","uri":"https:\/\/grid.prio.org\/#\/download","citation":"Tollefsen, Andreas For\u00f8; H\u00e5vard Strand & Halvard Buhaug (2012) PRIO-GRID: A unified spatial data structure. Journal of Peace Research, 49(2): 363-374. doi: 10.1177\/0022343311431287"},{"name":"Conflict Forecasts Dataset","note":"Data accessed in 2025. Variables used: 12-month ahead predicted probability of conflict onset for armed conflict, any violence, and intensity measure. File location: data\/. Files: 12-2024_conflictforecast_ons_armedconf_12.csv; 12-2024_conflictforecast_ons_anyviolence_12.csv; 12-2024_conflictforecast_int_lnbest_12.csv.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license_uri":"https:\/\/conflictforecast.org\/terms-of-service","uri":"https:\/\/conflictforecast.org\/","citation":"Mueller, H., Rauh, C., and Seimon, B. 2024. \"Introducing a global dataset on conflict forecasts and news topics.\" Data & Policy, volume 6. https:\/\/conflictforecast.org\/. Accessed 2025."},{"name":"World Development Indicators","note":"Data accessed in 2025. Variables used: GDP at constant USD (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), GDP per capita at constant USD (NY.GDP.PCAP.KD), and total population (SP.POP.TOTL). File location: data\/GDP_WDI.dta\n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","citation":"World Bank. 2025. \"World Development Indicators\" [dataset]. https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators. Accessed in 2025. "}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details. \n2. **Run the Package:**\n     - Update the working directory in line 33 of the do-file \"main\", and run it.\n\nSince all the original data cannot be redistributed, the package includes the outputs produced by the authors, which can be used to review the results presented in the paper.","technology_requirements":"Run time: ~ 10 minutes.","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Arti","familyName":"Grover","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"International Finance Corporation"}]},{"givenName":"Pierre-Louis","familyName":"Vezina","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"Kings College, London"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for The Impact Of Conflict On Foreign Investments: Evidence From Project-Level Data"},{"title":"RR_WLD_2026_629","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_WLD_2026_629","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}