{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-03-03","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Thomas Farole","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"tfarole@ifc.org"},{"name":"Luca Bettarelli","affiliation":"University of Palermo","email":"luca.bettarelli@unipa.it"},{"name":"Michael Ganslmeier","affiliation":"University of Exeter","email":"m.ganslmeier@exeter.ac.uk"},{"name":"Indhira Vanessa Santos","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"isantos@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Marc Schiffbauer","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mchiffbauer@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Rising Heat In The Labor Market: The Impact Of Climate Change On Jobs In Europe","idno":"RR_EUR_2025_519"},"data_statement":"Some data is limited-access and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, refer to the README file.","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"19.5 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Rising Heat In The Labor Market: The Impact Of Climate Change On Jobs In Europe","date":"2026-03","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_EUR_2025_519","zip_package":"RR_EUR_2025_519.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-03-03","abstract":"This paper studies the impact of rising heat on labor markets across Europe by combining geocoded district-level, establishment-level and wet-bulb temperature (WBT) data. At the district level, we construct a panel covering 1,525 NUTS-3 districts across 32 countries from 1980\u20132023, disaggregated by ten economic sectors to estimate dynamic labor market responses to WBT increases. We complement the analysis using representative, geocoded surveys covering over 46,000 establishments. We find that a one standard deviation increase in yearly WBT (0.7\u00b0C) reduces employment growth by 0.3 percent two years later. In a long-term perspective, our results indicate that the increase in WBT temperature since 1980 may have reduced employment in Europe by around 1.1 million jobs, equivalent to more than half of a normal year of employment growth. The effect is stronger in heat-exposed, low-wage, and labor-intensive sectors, as well as in small and young establishments. It also leads to persistent declines in hours worked and gross value-added levels. In contrast to the negative employment impact, real average wage growth rises after temperature increases because low-skill workers and low-wage establishments bear the brunt of the employment impact within sectors. As a result, the composition of employment shifts towards higher-paid jobs. The impact of rising WBT is in part explained by limited adaptation: fewer than one-third of small and about half of large establishments in Europe invest in cooling technology, with establishments paying lower wages and facing less favorable local business environments being less likely to adapt","geographic_units":[{"name":"Europe","code":"EUR"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Climate Change"},{"name":"Labor Markets"},{"name":"Wet-Bulb Temperature"},{"name":"Adaptation"}],"topics":[{"id":"Q54","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Climate \u2022 Natural Disasters and Their Management \u2022 Global Warming","parent_id":"Q5"},{"id":" J21","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure","parent_id":"J2"},{"id":" R11","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes","parent_id":"R1"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Rising Heat In The Labor Market: The Impact Of Climate Change On Jobs In Europe"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: 30 minutes approximately.","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"Modified BSD3","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause\/"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Thomas Farole","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"tfarole@ifc.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB","reproduction_instructions":"The replication package starts from intermediate datasets, which are included in the package. The code used to construct these datasets from the raw data is not included; however, the data construction process is described in the README, and some of the raw datasets are included.\nTo reproduce the findings, a new user needs to:\n1. Adjust the file path in the `wbes\/replication_wbes.do` do-file and run the code.\n2. Adjust the file path in the `ardeco\/replication_ardeco.do` do-file and run the code.","datasets":[{"name":"World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES)","note":"Source: World Bank.\nAccess date: January 2025. \nDatasets accessed: StandardizedNew-2006-2025-core4; ECA-MENA-with-Green-Economy-41-WBES-full-data; Firm-Level-TFP-Estimates-and-Factor-Ratios-Data-and-Documentation; and ES-Indicators-Database-Global-Methodology.\nFile location: replication\/wbes\/. \nFile names: New_Comprehensive_December_15_2025.dta; combined WBES_ECA MENA_2020.dta; Firm Level TFP Estimates and Factor Ratios_December_15_2025.dta; and ES-Indicators-Database-Global-Methodology_December_15_2025.dta.","access_type":"Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/www.enterprisesurveys.org\/en\/enterprisesurveys","license_uri":"https:\/\/login.enterprisesurveys.org\/content\/sites\/financeandprivatesector\/en\/terms.html","license":"Custom License","citation":"World Bank. (2025). World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) [dataset]. Available at www.enterprisesurveys.org. Accessed in January 2025"},{"name":"Annual Regional Database of the European Commission website (ARDECO)","note":"Source: European Commission.\nAccess date: January 2025. \nDatasets accessed: SNETZ (employment by industry); SOVGZ (GVA by industry at constant prices); SUVGZ (GVA by industry at PPP); RNLHZ (hours worked by industry); ROWCZ (compensation of employee by industry at constant prices); SOVGDP (GDP per capita at constant price); and ROIGZ (Gross Fixed Capital Formation by industry at constant prices)\nNote: Although the raw ARDECO data is not included, it was reshaped into long format and merged to produce `ardeco\/ardeco.dta`, which is included in the replication package. No code is provided to automate the download, reshaping, or merging process; users wishing to reproduce this step will need to do so independently.","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the replication package because the version of the data used by the authors is no longer available. Intermediate data is provided, which is sufficient to reproduce the results.","uri":"https:\/\/territorial.ec.europa.eu\/ardeco\/explorer?lng=en ","citation":"European Commission, Joint Research Centre. Annual Regional Database of the European Commission (ARDECO) [datasets]. Available at:https:\/\/territorial.ec.europa.eu\/ardeco\/explorer?lng=en . Accessed January 2025.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"name":"Copernicus Climate Data Store: ERA5 reanalysis","note":"Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store. \nAccess date: January 2023.\nFile location: replication\/wbes\/weather data. \nNote: The replication code does not run from this raw dataset. Instead, it starts from intermediate datasets constructed from it. The code used to generate these intermediate datasets is not included; however, the data construction process is described in the README.","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.","license":"CC-BY licence","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/ ","uri":"https:\/\/cds.climate.copernicus.eu\/datasets\/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=overview","citation":"Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Hor\u00e1nyi, A., Mu\u00f1oz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., Th\u00e9paut, J-N. (2023): ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), DOI: 10.24381\/cds.adbb2d47. Accessed in January 2023."},{"name":"Wet Bulb Temperature (WBT)","note":"Source:  World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal. \nAccess date: January 2025. \nFile location: replication\/wbes\/weather data. \nNote: The replication code does not run from this raw dataset. Instead, it starts from intermediate datasets constructed from it. The code used to generate these intermediate datasets is not included; however, the data construction process is described in the README.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the replication package.","license":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/ ","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","uri":"https:\/\/climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org\/download-data","citation":"World Bank (2024). Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP): Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-degree (Wet Bulb Temperature). Dataset: timeseries-wbt-monthly-mean_era5-x0.25_era5-x0.25-historical_timeseries_mean_1950-2023.nc. Available at: Climate Change Knowledge Portal at https:\/\/climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org\/download-data."},{"name":"Territorial units for statistics (NUTS)","note":"Source: European Commission. \nAccess date: January 2025. \nFile location: \"ardeco\\NUTS_RG_20M_2021_3035.dta\" and \"ardeco\\NUTS_RG_20M_2021_3035_shp.dta\".","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the replication package.","uri":"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/web\/gisco\/geodata\/statistical-units\/territorial-units-statistics","citation":"Eurostat. (2025). Territorial units for statistics (NUTS) [dataset]. GISCO \u2013 European Commission. Available at https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/web\/gisco\/geodata\/statistical-units\/territorial-units-statistics. Accessed in January 2025.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}]},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Thomas","familyName":"Farole","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank Group"}]},{"givenName":"Luca","familyName":"Bettarelli","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Palermo"}]},{"givenName":"Michael","familyName":"Ganslmeier","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Exeter"}]},{"givenName":"Indhira Vanessa","familyName":"Santos","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank Group"}]},{"givenName":"Marc","familyName":"Schiffbauer","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank Group"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Rising Heat In The Labor Market: The Impact Of Climate Change On Jobs In Europe"},{"title":"RR_EUR_2025_519","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_EUR_2025_519","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open Data"}],"schematype":"script"}