{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-05-18","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Maria Vagliasindi","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mvagliasindi@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Somik Lall","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"slall1@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Xinyi Su","affiliation":"Cambridge University","email":"xs308@cam.ac.uk"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Learning At Scale Infrastructure, Aid Effectiveness, And World Bank Performance","idno":"RR_WLD_2026_654"},"data_statement":"All data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"19.0 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Learning At Scale Infrastructure, Aid Effectiveness, And World Bank Performance","date":"2026-05","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2026_654","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2026_654.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-05-18","abstract":"This paper re-examines aid effectiveness using ex-post Economic Rates of Return (ERR) from 2,500 World Bank\u2013financed infrastructure projects over six decades. Three facts emerge. First, average value creation is high: the mean ERR is 24% (median 18.5%). Second, returns rise over time: after relative stability through the mid\u20111980s, ERRs increase from the late 1980s onward, consistent with improved selection, design, and delivery. Third, ERRs are systematically higher in countries with weak institutions. In such countries, high quality World Bank performance is associated with about a 12\u2011point increase in average ERRs. A plausible mechanism is talent deployment: higher\u2011quality Task Team Leaders are disproportionately assigned to the most challenging contexts and are linked to faster time\u2011to\u2011effectiveness and higher ERRs, despite longer, more intensive implementation. Overall, alongside country fundamentals, World Bank performance and talent deployment materially raise returns to scarce capital\u2014especially where governance is weak.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Economic Rates Of Return"},{"name":"Infrastructure"},{"name":"Aid Effectiveness"},{"name":"Fcv"},{"name":"World Bank"}],"topics":[{"id":"D02","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":" Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact ","url":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","parent_id":"D0","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel"},{"id":"D61","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":" Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis ","url":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","parent_id":"D6"},{"id":"F35","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":" Foreign Aid ","url":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","parent_id":"F3"},{"id":"H43","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":" Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate ","url":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","parent_id":"H4"},{"id":"O22","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":" Project Analysis ","url":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","parent_id":"O2"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Learning At Scale Infrastructure, Aid Effectiveness, And World Bank Performance"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time: ~ 5 minutes","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Maria Vagliasindi","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mvagliasindi@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"note":"Author-compiled dataset created over 9 months starting January 2025, through hand-coding of information from multiple World Bank project sources. The dataset contains three components: (1) Project database covering all completed World Bank infrastructure projects that received an IEG rating, spanning operations approved between 1956 and 2020 and completed between 1963 and 2025. Information extracted from World Bank Archives including Project Appraisal Documents (PADs), Implementation Completion and Result Reports (ICRRs), and restricted Loan Documents containing sensitive financial information (e.g., disbursement milestones, interest rates) from Finance and Treasury; (2) Country database covering country policy and institutional indicators associated with project approval and completion years; (3) TTL database drawing on PADs, ICRRs, Implementation Status and Result Reports (ISRs), as well as restricted HR sources (including confidential HR records, People Pages, and Young Professional Program archives), information shared on a confidential basis by colleagues, and publicly available sources (including LinkedIn). File location:data\/ERR raw_final_confidential_forreplicationonly.dta,\n","access_type":"There is no documented way to access the data, and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","name":"Economic rates of return Project Database","citation":"Authors' compilation. 2025. \"Economic rates of return Project Database\" [dataset]. Compiled for Learning At Scale: Infrastructure, Aid Effectiveness, and World Bank Performance. Unpublished data.\n"}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.\n2. **Run the Package:**\n   - Update the working directory in line 15 of `Replication_1-april._final.do`, and run it.\n   - Update the working directory in line 15 of `Replication_2_april_final.do`, and run it.\n\nSince all the original data cannot be redistributed, the package includes the outputs produced by the authors, which can be used to review the results presented in the paper.","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ (2.80 GHz) (4 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 32 GB\n"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Maria","familyName":"Vagliasindi","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeURI":"https:\/\/ror.org","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Somik","familyName":"Lall","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeURI":"https:\/\/ror.org","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Xinyi","familyName":"Su","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"Cambridge University","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/013meh722","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeURI":"https:\/\/ror.org","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Learning At Scale Infrastructure, Aid Effectiveness, And World Bank Performance"},{"title":"RR_WLD_2026_654","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_WLD_2026_654","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}