{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-04-14","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Maddalena Honorati","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mhonorati@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Gordon Betcherman","affiliation":"University of Ottawa","email":"Gordon.Betcherman@uottawa.ca"},{"name":"Martin Moessinger","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mmoessinger@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Minimum Wage In Ukraine: Estimating The Impacts Of Alternative Reform Options","idno":"RR_UKR_2026_625"},"data_statement":"All data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"19.5 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Minimum Wage In Ukraine: Estimating The Impacts Of Alternative Reform Options","date":"2026-04","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_UKR_2026_625","zip_package":"RR_UKR_2026_625.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-04-14","abstract":"This paper presents an analysis of the impacts of a Government\u2019s of Ukraine proposal for setting a minimum wage floor equal to 40 percent of the previous year's average wage once the war and martial law are over, and rising by two percentage points annually until reaching 50 percent of the previous year's average wage. The analysis is forward-looking, forecasting how the proposed reform would affect employment, earnings, and social contributions. The analysis draws on a 10 percent random sample of 2023 worker level data from the Pension Fund of Ukraine, covering all jobs with pension contributions in the private sector and non-military public sector. We find that nearly one-quarter of jobs had reported earnings at or below the official minimum wage and another 13 percent just above the minimum wage. Women and young workers were disproportionately represented among low-wage earners, and wholesale and retail trade was the dominant low-wage sector. Simulation results indicate that by the end of the five-year transition period the minimum wage would be 45 percent above the level it would have reached if adjusted only for wage inflation. Projected job losses remain modest (0.51%\u20131.03%), while total earnings increase by up to 3.24%. The effect on social contributions and taxes would be the same as the effect on earnings as in Ukraine they are a fixed percentage of earnings.  A counterfactual simulation using observed 2023 data confirms these findings. In both scenarios, wage gains for low-wage workers outweigh employment losses, consistent with the labor shortages currently reported across the Ukrainian economy. The paper concludes with recommendations on minimum wage-setting procedures, including the need for robust institutional frameworks, meaningful social dialogue, and improved technical oversight.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Ukraine","code":"UKR"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Minimum Wage"},{"name":"Labor Markets"},{"name":"Wages"},{"name":"Contributions"},{"name":"Ukraine"}],"topics":[{"id":"E24","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Employment \u2022 Unemployment \u2022 Wages \u2022 Intergenerational Income Distribution \u2022 Aggregate Human Capital \u2022 Aggregate Labor Productivity","parent_id":"E2"},{"id":" J31","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Wage Level and Structure \u2022 Wage Differentials","parent_id":"J3"},{"id":" J38","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Public Policy","parent_id":"J3"},{"id":" J46","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Informal Labor Markets","parent_id":"J4"},{"id":" J48","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Public Policy","parent_id":"J4"},{"id":" J8","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Labor Standards: National and International","parent_id":"J"},{"id":" O1","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Economic Development","parent_id":"O"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Minimum Wage In Ukraine: Estimating The Impacts Of Alternative Reform Options","authors":"Gordon Betcherman, Maddalena Honorati and Martin Moessinger "}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Maddalena Honorati","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mhonorati@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Administrative data from the Pension Fund of Ukraine (2021-2023)","note":"Source: Pension Fund of Ukraine, Ministry of Labor and Social Policy, Government of Ukraine. The dataset covers the contribution history of persons who are subject to social security contributions in 2021, 2022, and 2023. The file Codebook PFU Data.xlsx provides a list of all variables used in the study. A potential replicator should request the data from the Pension Fund of Ukraine (https:\/\/mvs.gov.ua\/en\/for_citizens\/korisni-posilannya\/pensiinii-fond-ukrayini), specifying the required variables and the intended use of the data. ","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution, and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom License","citation":"Pension Fund of Ukraine, Ministry of Labor and Social Policy, Government of Ukraine. Administrative data from the Pension Fund of Ukraine (2021-2023) [dataset]. Unpublished data. Accessed September 2025."}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 5218 CPU @ 2.30GHz (2.30 GHz) (2 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 8.15 GB\n\u2022 Software version: Stata 19.5 MP","technology_requirements":"Run time: ~15 minutes","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.\n2. **Run the Package:** Update the user number in line 21 and working directory in line 25 of the do-file `Ukraine Minimum Wage Simulations Master`, and run it.\n\nSince all the original data cannot be redistributed, the package includes the outputs produced by the authors, which can be used to review the results presented in the paper."},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Maddalena","familyName":"Honorati","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org\/"}]},{"givenName":"Gordon","familyName":"Betcherman","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Ottawa","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03c4mmv16","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org\/"}]},{"givenName":"Martin","familyName":"Moessinger","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org\/"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Minimum Wage In Ukraine: Estimating The Impacts Of Alternative Reform Options"},{"title":"RR_UKR_2026_625","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_UKR_2026_625","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}