{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-06-16","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Carlos Rodr\u00edguez-Castel\u00e1n","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"crodriguezc@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Emmanuel Vazquez","affiliation":"CEDLAS-UNLP","email":"evazquez@cedlas.org"},{"name":"Hernan Winkler","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"hwinkler@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Trade Diversion And Jobs: Evidence From Mexican Municipalities","idno":"RR_MEX_2026_661"},"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available but not all are included in the reproducibility package.","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"19.5 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Trade Diversion And Jobs: Evidence From Mexican Municipalities","date":"2026-06","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_MEX_2026_661","zip_package":"RR_MEX_2026_661.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-06-16","abstract":"This article examines the local effects of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade disruptions on Mexico. Combining detailed municipal-level customs data with U.S. tariff schedules, we estimate that municipalities with greater export concentration in products targeted by U.S. tariffs on China (hereafter, tariff exposure) experienced significantly larger nearshoring dividends. A 1 percent increase in tariff exposure led to a 4.3 percent increase in municipality-level exports to the United States, with gains concentrated in northern and south-central states. These export gains translated into broad labor market improvements: total labor income rose by 5.6 percent for each 1 percent increase in tariff exposure, driven by job creation rather than wage growth as average earnings remained unchanged. Effects were heterogeneous across skill levels, with the largest employment rate gains among semi-skilled workers. Beyond job quantity, the shock improved job quality: each 1 percent increase in tariff exposure reduced labor informality by 0.25 percentage points, with newly created jobs disproportionately being formal. Effects were driven primarily by manufacturing but extended to services through local spillovers. The findings indicate that trade policy changes between major economies can significantly reshape the spatial distribution of economic activity and quantity and quality of jobs in third-party countries.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Mexico","code":"MEX"}],"keywords":[{"name":"International Trade"},{"name":"Labor Markets"},{"name":"Trade Policy"}],"topics":[{"id":"F13","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Trade Policy \u2022 International Trade Organizations","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" F14","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Empirical Studies of Trade","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" F16","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Trade and Labor Market Interactions","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" L60","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"L6"},{"id":" O19","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"International Linkages to Development \u2022 Role of International Organizations","parent_id":"O1"},{"id":" R12","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity","parent_id":"R1"},{"id":" R23","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Regional Migration \u2022 Regional Labor Markets \u2022 Population \u2022 Neighborhood Characteristics","parent_id":"R2"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Trade Diversion And Jobs: Evidence From Mexican Municipalities"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: ~10 minutes.","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Carlos Rodr\u00edguez-Castel\u00e1n","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"crodriguezc@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"US-China Trade War Tariff Database","note":"Source: Replication package of Fajgelbaum, P., P. Goldberg, P. Kennedy, A. Khandelwal, and D. Taglioni (2024). \nAccess date: June 3, 2024. \nFile location: \"Data\\fajgelbaum\". \nFile names: m_flow_hs10_fm.dta.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/www.dropbox.com\/scl\/fi\/lgey47dqk0rouv06e1990\/TWGR_replication.zip?rlkey=a1g4wulrveq3m6n9pa0aqtmxj&e=1&dl=0","citation":"Fajgelbaum, P., Goldberg, P., Kennedy, P., Khandelwal, A., and Taglioni, D. (2024). \"The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations\" [replication package]. American Economic Review: Insights 6(2): 295\u2013312. https:\/\/www.dropbox.com\/scl\/fi\/lgey47dqk0rouv06e1990\/TWGR_replication.zip?rlkey=a1g4wulrveq3m6n9pa0aqtmxj&e=1&dl=0. Accessed June 2024.","license":"Custom license","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/journals\/data\/data-code-policy"},{"name":"Mexico Foreign Trade by Municipality ","note":"Source: Secretariat of Economy, Government of Mexico. \nAccess dates: May 17, 2024 (exports to US by product; total exports by product); June 13, 2024 (total exports by municipality); November 29, 2024 (imports from China). \nFile location: \"Data\\datamexico\". \nFile names: Exports to US by product and municipality from 2006 to 2024.csv; Total Exports by product and municipality from 2006 to 2024.csv; Total Exports by municipality from 2006 to 2024.csv; Imports from CH by product and municipality from 2006 to 2024.csv.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.economia.gob.mx\/datamexico\/en\/about\/legal","uri":"https:\/\/www.economia.gob.mx\/datamexico\/en\/vizbuilder","citation":"Secretariat of Economy. (2024). \"Foreign Trade by Municipality \u2014 INEGI-Balanza Comercial de Mercanc\u00edas de M\u00e9xico (BCMM)\" [dataset]. Data Mexico Viz Builder. https:\/\/www.economia.gob.mx\/datamexico\/en\/vizbuilder. Accessed May\u2013November 2024."},{"name":"Municipality-Level Socioeconomic Variables","note":"Source: Authors' extract from the database used in Rodr\u00edguez-Castel\u00e1n, C., Vazquez, E., and Winkler, H. (2024).\nExtract shared by the authors on March 2, 2025. \nContains: municipality identifier, year, total population, rural population share, literacy among the population aged 15 or older, and log median per capita income (in real 2014 Mexican pesos). Population and literacy variables constructed from Mexican population censuses and population counts. Income measure generated using the poverty mapping methodology of Elbers, Lanjouw, and Lanjouw (2003) as implemented in Enamorado et al. (2016); deflated using the average National Consumer Price Index from INEGI (December 2010 base). \nFile location: \"Data\\castelan et al - 2024\". \nFile names: castelan_vazquez_winkler_2024.dta.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Rodr\u00edguez-Castel\u00e1n, C., Vazquez, E., and Winkler, H. (2024). \"Exports and Income Inequality in Mexico\" [dataset extract]. Journal of Development Studies 60(7): 1131\u20131159. DOI: 10.1080\/00220388.2024.2337373. Shared by authors, March 2025."},{"name":"IPUMS International \u2014 Mexico Population Censuses ","note":"Source: IPUMS (Integrated Public Use Microdata Series) International, University of Minnesota. \nAccess date: January 7, 2025. \nFile location: \"Data\\ipums\". \nFile names: ipums_original.dta.","access_type":"Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","license_uri":"https:\/\/international.ipums.org\/international\/terms.shtml","uri":"https:\/\/international.ipums.org\/international-action\/variables\/group","citation":"Steven Ruggles, Lara Cleveland, Rodrigo Lovaton, Sula Sarkar, Matthew Sobek, Derek Burk, Dan Ehrlich, Jane Lee, and Nate Merrill. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, International: Version 7.5 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2024. "},{"name":"Daily COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Municipality","note":"Source: General Directorate of Epidemiology, Secretariat of Health, Government of Mexico.\nAccess date: September 27, 2024. \nFile location: \"Data\\covid\". \nFile names: Casos_Diarios_Municipio_Confirmados_20230625.csv; Casos_Diarios_Municipio_Defunciones_20230625.csv.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","uri":"https:\/\/datos.covid-19.conacyt.mx\/#DownZCSV","citation":"General Directorate of Epidemiology, Secretariat of Health, Government of Mexico. (2023). \"Casos Diarios por Municipio \u2014 COVID-19\" [dataset]. https:\/\/datos.covid-19.conacyt.mx\/#DownZCSV. Accessed September 2024."},{"name":"Economic Censuses","note":"Source: INEGI Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Geograf\u00eda \u2014 Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography. \nCensus years included: 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018, and 2023. \nAccess date: August 28, 2025. \nFile location: \"Data\\censos economicos\". \nFile names: SAIC_Exporta_2025828_114239722.csv.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.inegi.org.mx\/inegi\/terminos.html","license":"Custom license","uri":"https:\/\/www.inegi.org.mx\/app\/saic\/default.html","citation":"INEGI Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Geograf\u00eda. (2025). \"Sistema Automatizado de Informaci\u00f3n Censal (SAIC) \u2014 Censos Econ\u00f3micos 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018, 2023\" [dataset]. https:\/\/www.inegi.org.mx\/app\/saic\/default.html. Accessed August 2025."},{"name":"Municipal Geographic Boundaries ","note":"Source: INEGI Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Geograf\u00eda \u2014 Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography. \nVersion of September 2019. \nFile location: \"Data\\shapes\". \nFile names: areas_geoestadisticas_municipales.* (shapefile components); coords.dta; data.dta.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.inegi.org.mx\/inegi\/terminos.html","uri":"https:\/\/www.inegi.org.mx\/temas\/mg\/","citation":"INEGI Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Geograf\u00eda. (2019). \"Marco Geoestad\u00edstico \u2014 \u00c1reas Geoestad\u00edsticas Municipales\" [dataset]. September 2019. https:\/\/www.inegi.org.mx\/temas\/mg\/. Accessed March 2019."}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.\n2. **Run the Package:**\n  - Update the working directory of the do-file `0_master.do`, and run it.\n\nSince not all the original data can be redistributed, the package includes the outputs produced by the authors, which can be used to review the results presented in the paper."},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Carlos","familyName":"Rodr\u00edguez-Castel\u00e1n","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Emmanuel","familyName":"Vazquez","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"UNLP","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01tjs6929","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Hernan","familyName":"Winkler","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Trade Diversion And Jobs: Evidence From Mexican Municipalities"},{"title":"RR_MEX_2026_661","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_MEX_2026_661","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open Data"}],"schematype":"script"}