{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-06-25","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Michael Lokshin","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mlokshin@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Cheap Energy Might Not Be Enough: A Trade Model Of AI Compute Services","idno":"RR_EUR_2026_669"},"data_statement":"Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"19.0 MP"},{"name":"Python","version":"3.12"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Cheap Energy Might Not Be Enough: A Trade Model Of Ai Compute Services","date":"2026-06","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_EUR_2026_669","zip_package":"RR_EUR_2026_669.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-06-25","abstract":"Can energy-rich developing countries convert cheap electricity into AI compute exports? We develop a capacity-constrained Ricardian model of compute trade in which training is globally tradable, but inference incurs a latency cost, and delivered prices carry a bilateral sovereignty premium. Calibrated across 85 countries, the model places several developing economies among the cheapest producers at unsubsidized prices, yet bilateral trust deficits between developing-country producers and OECD buyers eliminate nearly all exports. Globally priced hardware compresses the cross-country cost spread to 12\u201320 percent, making compute the easiest tradable sector to enter on cost grounds and the most sensitive to small policy frictions: the binding export constraint is institutional credibility, not the price of power.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Europe","code":"EUR"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Compute Trade"},{"name":"Flops"},{"name":"Artificial Intelligence"},{"name":"Data Centers"},{"name":"Comparative Advantage"},{"name":"Electricity Costs"},{"name":"Developing Countries"}],"topics":[{"id":"F14","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Empirical Studies of Trade","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" F18","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Trade and Environment","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" L86","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Information and Internet Services \u2022 Computer Software","parent_id":"L8"},{"id":" O14","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Industrialization \u2022 Manufacturing and Service Industries \u2022 Choice of Technology","parent_id":"O1"},{"id":" O33","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Technological Change: Choices and Consequences \u2022 Diffusion Processes","parent_id":"O3"},{"id":" Q40","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"Q4"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Cheap Energy Might Not Be Enough: A Trade Model Of Ai Compute Services"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time: 9 minutes","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Michael Lokshin","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"mlokshin@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Turner & Townsend Data Centre Construction Cost Index 2025","note":"Source: Figures complied using the report \"Data Centre Construction Cost Index 2025 from Turner & Townsend.\nAccess date: February 2026\nFile location: data\/raw\/construction\/dcci_construction_cost_2025.csv\n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license":"Custom License","uri":"https:\/\/reports.turnerandtownsend.com\/data-centre-construction-cost-index-2025\/","citation":"Author's complied from from Turner & Townsend. 2025. \"Data Centre Construction Cost Index 2025\" [report]. https:\/\/reports.turnerandtownsend.com\/data-centre-construction-cost-index-2025\/\n\n\n\n"},{"name":"Data-Centre Installed Capacity (MW)","note":"Source: Authors' estimates. It is anchored to published figures from Synergy Research Group, CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, Arizton, Mordor Intelligence, and the IEA.\nAccess date: February 2026 \nFile location: data\/dc_capacity_estimates.csv\n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license":"Custom license","uri":"https:\/\/www.srgresearch.com\/; https:\/\/www.cbre.com\/; https:\/\/www.cushmanwakefield.com\/; https:\/\/www.arizton.com\/; https:\/\/www.mordorintelligence.com\/; https:\/\/www.iea.org\/","citation":"Authors' compilation. 2026. Synergy Research Group, CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, Arizton, Mordor Intelligence, IEA. [dataset]. Unpublished. \n"},{"name":"Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)","note":"Source: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) \u2014 Rule of Law and Regulatory Quality percentile ranks.\nAccess date: February 2026 \nFile location: data\/raw\/governance\/wgi_rule_of_law.csv.\n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/publication\/worldwide-governance-indicators","citation":"World Bank. 2025. \"Worldwide Governance Indicators\" [dataset]. https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/publication\/worldwide-governance-indicators. Accessed February 2026.\n"},{"name":"World Development Indicators (WDI)","note":"Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI). Indicators used: GDP per capita, PPP (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD); Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL); Urban population (% of total) (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS). Indicator reference year: 2023. File location: data\/wb_gdp_per_capita_ppp_2023.csv; data\/wb_population_2023.csv; data\/wb_urban_share_2023.csv.\n\nThe National Grid - Generation Capacity file (located at data\/grid_capacity_estimates.csv) is authors' construction from World Bank World Development Indicators (electricity consumption per capita; population) scaled to installed-capacity and GPU-hour ceilings.\nAccess date: February 2026.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/public-licenses","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","citation":"World Bank. 2023. \"World Development Indicators\" [dataset]. https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators. Accessed February 2026. \n\nAuthor's compilation. 2026. \"National Grid - Generation Capacity (electric power consumption; population)\" [dataset]. Constructed from the World Bank Development Indicators. https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators. Accessed February 2026.\n"},{"name":"World Bank Country\u2013Region Classification","note":"Source: World Bank country and lending-groups classification.\nAccess date: February 2026.\nFile location: data\/wb_country_regions.csv\n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","uri":"https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org\/knowledgebase\/articles\/906519","citation":"World Bank. \"World Bank Country\u2013Region Classification\" [dataset]. https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org\/knowledgebase\/articles\/906519. Accessed February 2026. \n"},{"name":"Seismic-Hazard Zone Flag","note":"Source: Authors' coding. A coarse high-\/low-seismic-hazard indicator assigned by the authors from widely-known seismic-hazard geography (high = countries on or near major plate boundaries \/ active seismic belts). It is consistent with the qualitative classifications of programs such as the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) and United States Geological Survey (USGS) hazard maps.\nAccess date: February 2026 (authors' coding).\nFile location: data\/seismic_zones.csv\n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license":"Public Domain","uri":"https:\/\/www.gfz-potsdam.de\/en\/section\/seismic-hazard-and-risk-dynamics\/; https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/programs\/earthquake-hazards","citation":"Authors' compilation. 2026. GSHAP\/USGS seismic-hazard classifications. [dataset]. Unpublished.\n"},{"name":"Grid-Reliability Index","note":"Source: Authors' index.  It is a constructed index that combines the World Bank Governance Indicators (WGI) governance percentile with a qualitative grid-quality score assigned by the authors (informed by general infrastructure-quality knowledge and reliability reporting), plus a sanctions adjustment.\nAccess date: February 2026.\nFile location: data\/reliability_index.csv.\n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/publication\/worldwide-governance-indicators","citation":"Authors' compilation. 2026. \"Grid-Reliability Index\". Authors-assigned grid-quality score from the World Bank Governance Indicators. [dataset]. Unpublished.\n"},{"name":"Country Temperatures \u2013 ERA5 and Natural Earth","note":"Data accessed in February 2026. Processed output generated by preprocessing\/process_temperature.py. The processed file (data\/country_temperatures.csv) is included in the package. The raw source file (data\/raw\/climate\/era5_2m_temperature_monthly.nc) is not included due to file size constraints; Natural Earth country boundaries are downloaded at runtime. ERA5 monthly data covers 2020\u20132024. Sources: (1) ERA5 2-meter monthly temperature: https:\/\/cds.climate.copernicus.eu\/datasets\/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means; (2) Natural Earth 1:110m Admin-0 country boundaries: https:\/\/www.naturalearthdata.com\/downloads\/110m-cultural-vectors\/.","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.\n","license":"CC BY (ERA5); Public Domain (Natural Earth)","license_uri":"https:\/\/cds.climate.copernicus.eu\/datasets\/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means","uri":"https:\/\/cds.climate.copernicus.eu\/datasets\/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means; https:\/\/www.naturalearthdata.com\/downloads\/110m-cultural-vectors\/","citation":"Hersbach, H., et al. (2023). \"ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present\" [dataset]. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). DOI: 10.24381\/cds.f17050d7. Boundaries: Natural Earth, 1:110m Admin-0 Countries.\n"},{"name":"WonderNetwork Global Ping Statistics \u2013 Country-Pair Latency","note":"Source: WonderNetwork, Global Ping Statistics. \nAccess date: February 2026.\nFile location: data\/country_pair_latency.csv (shipped); data\/wondernetwork_servers.csv (shipped). Raw source: data\/raw\/latency\/wondernetwork_pings.csv.gz.\n","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.\n","license":"Custom License","uri":"https:\/\/wondernetwork.com\/pings","citation":"WonderNetwork. \"Global Ping Statistics\" [dataset]. https:\/\/wondernetwork.com\/pings. Accessed February 2026.\n"},{"name":"Country Electricity Prices","note":"Author-compiled dataset merging three sources into a single file (data\/country_electricity_prices.csv), included in the package. The per-row source is recorded in the file's source column. Sources: (1) Eurostat \u2014 electricity prices for non-household consumers, reference period 2024 H2 (https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/databrowser\/view\/nrg_pc_205\/); (2) U.S. Energy Information Administration \u2014 average retail electricity prices, reference year 2024 (https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/electricity\/data.php); (3) Authors' manual compilation for approximately 20 non-European\/non-EIA countries from GlobalPetrolPrices, national regulators\/utilities, and the IEA, reference period 2024\u20132025 (rows tagged 'research' in source column). Data accessed February 2026.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.\n","license":"Custom license","license_uri":"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/databrowser\/view\/nrg_pc_205\/; https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/electricity\/data.php; https:\/\/www.globalpetrolprices.com\/electricity_prices\/","uri":"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/databrowser\/view\/nrg_pc_205\/; https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/electricity\/data.php; https:\/\/www.globalpetrolprices.com\/electricity_prices\/","citation":"Authors' compilation. 2026. \"Country Electricity Prices\" [dataset]. Based on: (1) Eurostat. \"Electricity prices for non-household consumers \u2014 bi-annual data (nrg_pc_205)\" [dataset]. https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/databrowser\/view\/nrg_pc_205\/. (2) U.S. Energy Information Administration. \"Electricity Data: Average Retail Price\" [dataset]. https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/electricity\/data.php. (3) GlobalPetrolPrices and national regulators (per-row source column). Accessed February 2026.\n"},{"name":"Master calibration table","note":"Source: combines into per-country cost-model inputs the following datasets: Country temperatures, Country-pair latency, Country electricity prices, Worldwide Governance Indicators (rule of law, regulatory quality), World Development Indicators (GDP per capita PPP, population, urban share), Seismic-hazard zone flag.\nFilename and location: data\/calibration_results_v3.csv.\nAccess date: February 2026 (derived).\n","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","citation":"Author's compilation. 2026. \"Master calibration table.\" [dataset]. Derived dataset released with the package. Unpublished. February 2026.\n\n"}],"reproduction_instructions":" **To reproduce the findings from the pre-processed datasets included in the package:**\n 1. Update the working directory in line 40 of the do-file `run_all` and run it.\n\n **To reproduce the findings from the raw data:**\n 1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.\n 2. **Run the preprocessing scripts:** Run the Python scripts in the `preprocessing\/` folder following the instructions in `preprocessing\/README`.\n 3. **Run the Stata code:** Update the working directory in line 40 of the do-file `run_all` and run it.","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz (2.90 GHz) (2 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 16.0 GB"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Michael","familyName":"Lokshin","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Cheap Energy Might Not Be Enough: A Trade Model Of Ai Compute Services"},{"title":"RR_EUR_2026_669","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_EUR_2026_669","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}