{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-07-06","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Putu Sanjiwacika Wibisana","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"pwibisana@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Steven Louis Rubinyi","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"srubinyi@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Understanding The Impact Of Multi-Nodal Urban Systems On Thailand's Urban Economies: Insights From A Dynamic Recursive Spatial General Equilibrium Model","idno":"RR_THA_2026_675"},"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.","software":[{"name":"R","version":"4.5.2"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Understanding The Impact Of Multi-Nodal Urban Systems On Thailand's Urban Economies: Insights From A Dynamic Recursive Spatial General Equilibrium Model","date":"2026-07","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_THA_2026_675","zip_package":"RR_THA_2026_675.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-07-06","abstract":"Thailand's transition to high-income status is, at its core, an urban challenge. Bangkok generates nearly half of national GDP, yet its dominance is increasingly constrained by congestion, environmental stress, and diminishing returns to further concentration. Successive National Spatial Development Strategies have called for a more multi-nodal urban hierarchy, but the analytical basis for evaluating that ambition has remained thin. This paper builds and calibrates a Dynamic Recursive Spatial Quantitative General Equilibrium model for Thailand's urban system from 2025 to 2050, and uses it to evaluate three counterfactual policy portfolios that allocate the same aggregate productivity-investment envelope (roughly 2.3 percent of 2030 urban GDP) across Bangkok and the eleven designated secondary cities in different proportions: a Bangkok-leaning portfolio (80\/20), a balanced portfolio (50\/50), and a secondary-leaning portfolio (20\/80). The Bangkok-leaning portfolio leads through 2045, but the secondary-leaning portfolio overtakes it between 2045 and 2050, delivering a 12.38 percent gain in national GDP per capita above the no-investment baseline against 11.62 percent for the Bangkok-leaning alternative. The balanced portfolio is dominated by both skewed alternatives at 2050, reflecting a threshold property of agglomeration economies. A two-dimensional envelope-by-split sweep shows that the relative ranking is genuinely contingent on the scale and horizon of the commitment: below a certain tipping point, the Bangkok-leaning portfolio dominates; above it, the secondary-leaning portfolio does. A modest, well-allocated spatial-investment programme is unlikely to be the engine of Thailand's high-income transition; sufficient scale of commitment is a precondition.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Thailand","code":"THA"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Spatial General Equilibrium"},{"name":"Multi-Nodal Urban Development"},{"name":"Primate Cities"},{"name":"Secondary Cities"},{"name":"Agglomeration"},{"name":"Thailand"},{"name":"Urban Economics"}],"topics":[{"id":"R11","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes","parent_id":"R1"},{"id":" R12","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity","parent_id":"R1"},{"id":" R13","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies","parent_id":"R1"},{"id":" O18","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis \u2022 Housing \u2022 Infrastructure","parent_id":"O1"},{"id":" O53","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Asia including Middle East","parent_id":"O5"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Understanding The Impact Of Multi-Nodal Urban Systems On Thailand's Urban Economies: Insights From A Dynamic Recursive Spatial General Equilibrium Model"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time: ~ 75 minutes","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Putu Sanjiwacika Wibisana","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"pwibisana@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"GHS-UCDB R2024A \u2013 GHS Urban Centre Database 2025","note":"Data accessed in January 2026. File locations: GHS_UCDB_GLOBE_R2024A_UC_Boundaries.shp and associated sidecar files.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/jeodpp.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/ftp\/jrc-opendata\/GHSL\/GHS_UCDB_GLOBE_R2024A\/GHS_UCDB_GLOBE_R2024A\/V1-0\/copyright.txt","uri":"https:\/\/jeodpp.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/ftp\/jrc-opendata\/GHSL\/GHS_UCDB_GLOBE_R2024A\/GHS_UCDB_GLOBE_R2024A\/V1-0\/","citation":"European Commission, Joint Research Centre. 2024. \"GHS-UCDB R2024A \u2014 GHS Urban Centre Database 2025\" [dataset]. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2905\/1a338be6-7eaf-480c-9664-3a8ade88cbcd. Accessed January 2026."},{"name":"Global Gridded GDP under Historical and Future Scenarios","note":"Data accessed in January 2026. SSP2 and SSP3 yearly GDP rasters for 2025\u20132100 at five-year intervals (16 rasters per scenario). Downloaded as SSP2.7z and SSP3.7z (~7.2 GB each) from the Zenodo record. Only SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios are used; SSP1, SSP4, SSP5, historical files (2000\u20132020), and the 0.25-degree variant are not used. Values are in 2005 USD PPP; Stage 2 rescales to 2017 USD PPP using the World Bank ICP 2017 conversion factor (0.91525). File location after extraction: Data\/Global (Wang & Sun, 2022)\/SSP Projection\/.","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/records\/7898409","citation":"Wang, T. and Sun, F. 2022. \"Global gridded GDP under the historical and future scenarios\" [dataset]. Zenodo. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.7898409. Accessed January 2026."},{"name":"Projected 1 km-grid SSP Population Distributions, 2020\u20132100","note":"Data accessed in January 2026. SSP2 and SSP3 yearly population rasters for 2025\u20132100 at five-year intervals (16 rasters per scenario). Some rasters carry implausible extent metadata and an inherited N\u2013S offset; Stage 1 detects this automatically and writes corrected rasters into a FIXED\/ subfolder before extracting per-UC totals. File location: Data\/Projected SSP Population (Wang 2022)\/.","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/figshare.com\/articles\/dataset\/Projecting_1_km-grid_population_distributions_from_2020_to_2100_globally_under_shared_socioeconomic_pathways\/19608594","citation":"Wang, X., Meng, X., and Long, Y. 2022. \"Projecting 1 km-grid population distributions from 2020 to 2100 globally under shared socioeconomic pathways.\" Scientific Data, 9, 563. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.6084\/m9.figshare.19608594. Accessed January 2026."}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ (2.80 GHz) (2 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper from raw data, a replicator must:\n1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.\n2. **Run the Package:**\n  - Open the R project `THAAM26.Rproj`, and restore the environment by running renv::restore() and following the prompts.\n  - Open `main.R` and run the code.\n\nTo reproduce the findings in this paper from processed data, a replicator must:\n1. Open the R project `THAAM26.Rproj`, and restore the environment by running renv::restore() and following the prompts.\n2. Run the script `THAAM26_SQGE_Reproducibility_FINAL`."},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Putu Sanjiwacika","familyName":"Wibisana","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Steven Louis","familyName":"Rubinyi","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Understanding The Impact Of Multi-Nodal Urban Systems On Thailand's Urban Economies: Insights From A Dynamic Recursive Spatial General Equilibrium Model"},{"title":"RR_THA_2026_675","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_THA_2026_675","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open data"}],"schematype":"script"}