{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-07-17","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Baran Han","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"bhan3@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Population Thresholds And Classification Stability: Evidence From The World Bank's Small States Classification Rule","idno":"RR_WLD_2026_681"},"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"19.5 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Population Thresholds And Classification Stability: Evidence From The World Bank's Small States Classification Rule","date":"2026-07","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2026_681","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2026_681.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-07-17","abstract":"The World Bank uses a population threshold of 1.5 million as the operational reference point for its Small States classification, with implications across several financing frameworks. This paper asks whether there is a break at the threshold in the macroeconomic outcomes associated with small country size, and how the classification rule should be administered given that population estimates are revised. In cross-country data for emerging market and developing economies over 2000\u20132024, growth volatility, trade openness, and terms-of-trade volatility decline smoothly with population size across regression, nonparametric, and threshold-test evidence, with no detectable break at 1.5 million or at any alternative cutoff between 1 and 10 million. In a newly assembled real-time dataset of fifteen annual vintages, half of published population estimates are revised by more than 1 percent within five years, and an estimate 1 percent above the threshold faces roughly a one-in-four probability of being revised below it within five years; of the three Small State status changes since 2019, two resulted from revisions, not demographic change. Within the existing threshold-based framework, the paper evaluates four implementation rules, including the current single-year rule, and recommends an asymmetric persistence requirement\u2014immediate entry, exit only after three consecutive years above the threshold\u2014supplemented by an advance-notice flag based on estimated crossing probabilities.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"topics":[{"id":"C12","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Hypothesis Testing: General","parent_id":"C1"},{"id":" C18","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Methodological Issues: General","parent_id":"C1"},{"id":" C23","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Panel Data Models \u2022 Spatio-temporal Models","parent_id":"C2"},{"id":" F35","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Foreign Aid","parent_id":"F3"},{"id":" O11","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development","parent_id":"O1"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Population Thresholds And Classification Stability: Evidence From The World Bank's Small States Classification Rule"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: ~20 minutes.","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Baran Han","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"bhan3@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"World Development Indicators","note":"Source: World Bank.\nIndicators used: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL); Land area (sq. km) (AG.LND.TOTL.K2); Fuel exports (% of merchandise exports) (TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN); Net barter terms of trade index (2015 = 100) (TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD); Trade (% of GDP) (NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS); GDP, PPP (constant 2021 international $) (NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.KD); GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2021 international $) (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD).\nAccess date: Data downloaded by the code on June 10, 2026.\nFile location: \"data\\rawdata_wdi_frozen_2026-08-29.dta\".","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/public-licenses","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","citation":"World Bank. 2026. \"World Development Indicators\" [dataset]. World Bank. https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators. Accessed June 11, 2026."},{"name":"World Development Indicators Archives, population vintages","note":"Source: World Bank.\nIndicators used: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) for the following vintages: June 28, 2019, July 1, 2020, July 30, 2021, June 30, 2022, June 29, 2023, July 1, 2024, and July 2, 2025\nAccess date: Data downloaded by the code on June 10, 2026.\nFile location: \"data\/population\/\".","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","uri":"https:\/\/datatopics.worldbank.org\/world-development-indicators\/wdi-archives.html","citation":"World Bank. 2026. \"World Development Indicators Archives\" [dataset]. https:\/\/datatopics.worldbank.org\/world-development-indicators\/wdi-archives.html. Accessed June 2026."},{"name":"Country classification and distance file","note":"Source: Authors' compilation. Contains country classification variables, sample restrictions, lending and income group variables, regional identifiers, and distance-from-markets variables. The distance-from-markets variable is extracted from Table 6 of the UNCTAD Least Developed Countries Report 2021 (https:\/\/unctad.org\/system\/files\/official-document\/ser-rp-2021d10_en.pdf). \nAccess date: June 10, 2026. \nFile location: \"data\/country_categorization_distance.xlsx\u201d.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. Update the working directory of the do-file `0.master.do`\n2. Run the Package."},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Baran","familyName":"Han","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/02md09461","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Population Thresholds And Classification Stability: Evidence From The World Bank's Small States Classification Rule"},{"title":"RR_WLD_2026_681","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_WLD_2026_681","language":"en","doi":"10.60572\/04nv-k006","prefix":"10.60572","suffix":"04nv-k006"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open Data"}],"schematype":"script"}