{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-08-07","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Harry Anthony Patrinos","affiliation":"University of Arkansas","email":"patrinos@uark.edu"},{"name":"Tomasz Gajderowicz","affiliation":"University of Warsaw","email":"tgajderowicz@uw.edu.pl"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Quality Matters: Estimating Economic Impacts Of Improving Education Quality In The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia","idno":"RR_SAU_2026_666"},"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","software":[{"name":"R","version":" 4.5.2"},{"name":"Stata","version":"19.5 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Quality Matters: Estimating Economic Impacts Of Improving Education Quality In The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia","date":"2026-08","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_SAU_2026_666","zip_package":"RR_SAU_2026_666.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock. Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-08-07","abstract":"Quality education drives economic growth and equality. Saudi Arabia has achieved near-universal enrollment but still trails peers in learning quality, limiting workforce readiness. Using data from 97 countries (2000-2019), this paper models how Harmonized Learning Outcomes affect GDP growth, accounting for factors like resource income. A 180-point rise in learning\u2014matching the world\u2019s best\u2014could raise Saudi GDP by 27 percent in 20 years, or $225 billion (in 2021 prices). Simulated scenarios yield gains of $125 to $156 billion, or 15 percent to 19 percent of GDP, with front-loaded improvements offering faster returns. Strengthening teaching, curricula, early childhood programs, and private sector engagement is key to realizing these gains.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Saudi Arabia","code":"SAU"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Education"},{"name":"Learning Outcomes"},{"name":"Quality Of Education"},{"name":"Economic Growth"},{"name":"Saudi Arabia"}],"topics":[{"id":"I25","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Education and Economic Development","parent_id":"I2"},{"id":" I26","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Returns to Education","parent_id":"I2"},{"id":" O40","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"O4"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Quality Matters: Estimating Economic Impacts Of Improving Education Quality In The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time ~ 3 minutes","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Mahmoud Elsayed","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"melsayed@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"HLO Original Data - Author-Compiled Analysis Dataset","note":"Author-compiled analysis-ready dataset assembled from the following public sources:\n (1) Harmonized Learning Outcomes (HLO) Database (World Bank, Data360): harmonized learning outcomes in mathematics, including country, assessment, year, subject, grade, score, and HLO variables. Accessed 2 October 2022. URL: https:\/\/data360files.worldbank.org\/data360-data\/data\/WB_HLO\/WB_HLO_WIDEF.csv. Related publication: Angrist, Noam, Simeon Djankov, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, and Harry A. Patrinos. 2021. Measuring human capital using global learning data. Nature 592: 403-408. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-021-03323-7. License: CC BY 4.0.\n (2) World Development Indicators (World Bank): control variables including GDP per capita growth (NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG), GDP per capita PPP constant 2017 international dollars (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD), gross capital formation (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS), labor force participation (SL.TLF.ACTI.ZS), life expectancy (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), expense (GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS), trade (NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS), FDI net inflows (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS), natural resource rents (NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS), and government expenditure on education (SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS). Access via World Bank Indicator API. Accessed 2 October 2022. License: CC BY 4.0.\n (3) Expected years of schooling (SE.SCH.LIFE), World Bank WDI; original source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Accessed 2 October 2022. URL: https:\/\/api.worldbank.org\/v2\/en\/indicator\/SE.SCH.LIFE?downloadformat=excel. License: CC BY 4.0. \n(4) Mean years of schooling (ISCED 1 or higher), population 25+ years, both sexes; UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) Data Browser, Other Policy Relevant Indicators - Education (OPRI). Accessed 2 October 2022. URL: https:\/\/databrowser.uis.unesco.org\/browser\/EDUCATION\/UIS-EducationOPRI\/mys. License: CC BY-SA 4.0. No confidential or proprietary data are included. File location: data\/HLO Original Data.dta.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom License","citation":"World Bank. 2022. \"Harmonized Learning Outcomes (HLO) Database\" [dataset]. Author-compiled dataset drawing on World Bank Data360, World Development Indicators, and UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Accessed 2 October 2022."},{"name":"GCC, MENA, and KSA Simulation Workbook","note":"Author-compiled simulation and input workbook drawing on the following sources: \n(1) GDP current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), World Bank World Development Indicators: 2021 country GDP levels in current US dollars used as baseline GDP values in USD billions for Saudi Arabia, GCC, and MENA country simulations. Accessed 2 October 2022. URL: https:\/\/api.worldbank.org\/v2\/en\/indicator\/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?downloadformat=excel. License: CC BY 4.0. \n(2) SAR\/USD conversion rate, Saudi Central Bank (SAMA): fixed model conversion of SAR 3.75 per USD 1 used to express Saudi GDP in SAR billions where shown in the workbook. Accessed June 2026. URL: https:\/\/www.sama.gov.sa\/en-US\/Currency\/FinExc\/Pages\/Currency.aspx. Used only to document the fixed conversion factor; not redistributed as a dataset. \n(3) Education-quality improvement scenarios (authors' own): +25, +50, +100, and +180 one-time improvements; linear, backloaded, and frontloaded paths over 20 years; target and baseline score parameters embedded in the workbook and R script. See manuscript Table 1 and Appendix Tables B4-C3.\n(4) Growth coefficients (authors' own econometric estimates): coefficients 0.009, 0.034, and 0.06 generated from data\/HLO Original Data.dta using code\/stata\/estimations.do, corresponding to pooled OLS, Arellano-Bond, and Arellano-Bover\/Blundell-Bond estimates in Appendix Tables B1-B3. (5) Country group definitions (authors' own classification): MENA countries include Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia; GCC countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. File location: outputs\/excel\/gcc_mena_ksa_2025.xlsx.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom License","citation":"Authors' own compilation. 2026. \"GCC, MENA, and KSA Simulation Workbook\" [dataset]. Based on World Bank World Development Indicators, Saudi Central Bank exchange rate data, and authors' own simulation assumptions and econometric estimates. Accessed June 2026"}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n 1. Update the global directory in `estimation` do file on line 9 and run the file\n2. Update the global directory in `WB Projection method` R script file on line 3 and run the file\n\n","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 5218 CPU @ 2.30GHz (2.30 GHz) (2 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 16 GB"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Mahmoud","familyName":"Elsayed","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Harry Anthony","familyName":"Patrinos","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Arkansas","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/05jbt9m15","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Nayyaf","familyName":"Aljabri","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"Education and Training Evaluation Commission, Saudi Arabia","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Tomasz","familyName":"Gajderowicz","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Warsaw","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/039bjqg32","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Maciej","familyName":"Jakubowski","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Warsaw","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/039bjqg32","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Mohammed","familyName":"Al-Qawba","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"Education and Training Evaluation Commission, Saudi Arabia","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Quality Matters: Estimating Economic Impacts Of Improving Education Quality In The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia"},{"title":"RR_SAU_2026_666","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_SAU_2026_666","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open Data"}],"schematype":"script"}