{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-07-15","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Santos J. D\u00edaz-Pastor","affiliation":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA, USA","email":"sjdp@mit.edu"},{"name":"Yang Liu","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"yliu41@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Ignacio J. P\u00e9rez-Arriaga","affiliation":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA, USA","email":"ipa@mit.edu"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Not Too Much, Not Too Little:  A Goldilocks Approach To Sustainable, Universal Electricity Access In Sub-Saharan Africa","idno":"RR_AFR_2026_691"},"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","software":[{"name":"Excel","version":"Microsoft Excel for Microsoft 365 MSO"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Not Too Much, Not Too Little:  A Goldilocks Approach To Sustainable, Universal Electricity Access In Sub-Saharan Africa","date":"2026-07","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_AFR_2026_691","zip_package":"RR_AFR_2026_691.zip"}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-07-15","abstract":"This paper proposes a replicable regulatory and financial framework to achieve universal electricity access as a core component of a just energy transition in sub-Saharan Africa. It argues that universal access is feasible under realistic constraints when electrification planning, tariff regulation, and capital mobilization are designed as one coherent system rather than separate workstreams. The analysis rests on a computational, multi-period financial model that integrates individual interacting sub-models for every actor in the distribution segment. Versions of the same overall approach are applied to three countries, spanning different starting points and sector structures. Uganda provides the reference implementation in the wake of an expiring private distribution concession; Zambia recalibrates the same logic to a distressed national utility and a thin domestic revenue base; and Madagascar\u2014where the framework is already being applied as the Cadre d\u2019\u00c9lectrification Rurale Int\u00e9gr\u00e9e\u2014shows it moving from design to district-scale delivery in the lowest electricity access setting of the three.  \nThe central mechanism is an integrated national planning, regulatory, business and financing architecture that coordinates grid extension, mini-grids, and stand-alone systems within a single distribution-level financial plan. The framework separates two gaps that are routinely mixed\u2014the viability gap, the recurring shortfall between affordable tariff revenues and the regulated cost of service, and the financing needs, the timing mismatch between front-loaded investment and gradual cost recovery\u2014and shows that each calls for a distinct instrument.  \nThe evidence indicates that universal access can be reached without permanent reliance on external grants, and that extending the access horizon rather than compressing investment improves feasibility while still reaching everyone\u2014so that the design becomes a Goldilocks problem2: finding an electrification target year, a pattern of overall subsidy, and of tariffs that are just right; each neither too much nor too little. The paper reframes universal access as a challenge of cost allocation and institutional design, showing that affordability, inclusion, and financial sustainability are not competing objectives once electrification is designed as one system. ","geographic_units":[{"name":"Africa","code":"AFR"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Universal Electricity Access"},{"name":"Cross-Subsidization Mechanisms"},{"name":"Integrated Electrification Planning"},{"name":"Infrastructure Finance"},{"name":"Sub-Saharan Africa"}],"topics":[{"id":"Q40","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"General","parent_id":"Q4"},{"id":" Q48","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Government Policy","parent_id":"Q4"},{"id":" O13","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Agriculture \u2022 Natural Resources \u2022 Energy \u2022 Environment \u2022 Other Primary Products","parent_id":"O1"},{"id":" H54","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Infrastructures \u2022 Other Public Investment and Capital Stock","parent_id":"H5"},{"id":" L94","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Electric Utilities","parent_id":"L9"},{"id":" H23","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Externalities \u2022 Redistributive Effects \u2022 Environmental Taxes and Subsidies","parent_id":"H2"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Not Too Much, Not Too Little:  A Goldilocks Approach To Sustainable, Universal Electricity Access In Sub-Saharan Africa"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"No other technology requirements","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Santos J. D\u00edaz-Pastor","affiliation":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA, USA","email":"sjdp@mit.edu"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Uganda National Electrification Strategy","note":"Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (MEMD) & World Bank\nElectrification plan, connection targets, and unit costs. Uganda National Electrification Strategy (MEMD & World Bank, 2022). Encoded in the NES worksheet. Source \/ URL: https:\/\/nrep.ug\/document\/national-electrification-strategy-for-uganda-national-electrification-strategy-study-report-nessr-vol1\/","uri":"https:\/\/nrep.ug\/document\/national-electrification-strategy-for-uganda-national-electrification-strategy-study-report-nessr-vol1\/","citation":"Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (MEMD) & World Bank (2022). National Electrification Strategy for Uganda: National Electrification Strategy Study Report (NESSR), Vol. 1. https:\/\/nrep.ug\/document\/national-electrification-strategy-for-uganda-national-electrification-strategy-study-report-nessr-vol1\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package. "},{"name":"IMF World Economic Outlook (Uganda)","note":" Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)","uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Countries\/UGA","citation":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Uganda: IMF Country Information. https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Countries\/UGA","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package. ","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/about\/copyright-and-terms","license":"The Use of IMF Data"},{"name":"Q4 2024 Approved Electricity Tariffs by Consumer Category","note":"Source: Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA)","uri":"https:\/\/www.era.go.ug\/downloads\/tariff-reviews\/","citation":"Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) (2024). Q4 2024 Approved Electricity Tariffs by Consumer Category. https:\/\/www.era.go.ug\/downloads\/tariff-reviews\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package. "},{"name":"Annual Reports (2018\u20132024)","note":"Source: Umeme Ltd","uri":"https:\/\/www.umeme.co.ug","citation":"Umeme Ltd. Annual Reports (2018\u20132024). https:\/\/www.umeme.co.ug","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package. "},{"name":"PwC Uganda Corporate Tax Summary","note":"Source: PwC","uri":"https:\/\/taxsummaries.pwc.com\/uganda\/corporate\/taxes-on-corporate-income","citation":"PwC. Uganda Corporate Tax Summary https:\/\/taxsummaries.pwc.com\/uganda\/corporate\/taxes-on-corporate-income","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package. ","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.pwc.com\/gx\/en\/legal-notices\/terms-and-conditions.html"},{"name":"Rural Electrification Master Plan 2025\u20132030 ","note":"Source: Ministry of Energy (MoE) & Rural Electrification Authority (REA) ","uri":"https:\/\/www.moe.gov.zm\/?p=5722","citation":"Ministry of Energy (MoE) & Rural Electrification Authority (REA) (2026). Rural Electrification Master Plan 2025\u20132030. https:\/\/www.moe.gov.zm\/?p=5722","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package. "},{"name":"Public-Private Partnership Act No. 18 of 2023","note":"Source: Government of the Republic of Zambia","uri":"https:\/\/www.mofnp.gov.zm\/?wpdmpro=act-no-18-of-2023-the-public-private-partnership","citation":"Government of the Republic of Zambia (2023). Public-Private Partnership Act No. 18 of 2023. https:\/\/www.mofnp.gov.zm\/?wpdmpro=act-no-18-of-2023-the-public-private-partnership","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package. "},{"name":"Government of Madagascar Laws","note":"Source: Government of Madagascar","uri":"https:\/\/cnlegis.gov.mg\/page_find_direct_mots\/","citation":"Government of Madagascar. Government of Madagascar Laws. https:\/\/cnlegis.gov.mg\/page_find_direct_mots\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package. "}],"reproduction_instructions":"To successfully reproduce the analysis provided in this package, users should follow the instructions in the README file and replicate the analysis using the Excel spreadsheets. Since no code is provided, all results were verified manually following the instructions in the README. ","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced in a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 10 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz 2.90 GHz (2 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 32 GB\n\u2022 Software version: Microsoft Excel for Microsoft 365 MSO"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Santos J.","familyName":"D\u00edaz-Pastor","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA, USA","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Yang","familyName":"Liu","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Ignacio J.","familyName":"P\u00e9rez-Arriaga","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA, USA","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Not Too Much, Not Too Little:  A Goldilocks Approach To Sustainable, Universal Electricity Access In Sub-Saharan Africa"},{"title":"RR_AFR_2026_691","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_AFR_2026_691","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open Data"}],"schematype":"script"}