{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-08-20","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Florian Moelders","affiliation":"IFC","email":"fmoelders@ifc.org"},{"name":"Shawn Cole","affiliation":"Harvard Business School","email":"scole@hbs.edu"},{"name":"Fanele Mashwama","affiliation":"Harvard Business School","email":"fmashwama@fas.harvard.edu"},{"name":"Cesaire Meh","affiliation":"IFC","email":"cmeh@ifc.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Returns To Private Debt In Emerging And Developing Economies","idno":"RR_WLD_2026_699"},"data_statement":"Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file. ","software":[{"name":"Python","version":"3.10.16"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Returns To Private Debt In Emerging And Developing Economies","date":"2026-08","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2026_699","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2026_699.zip"}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-08-20","abstract":"Private debt dominates corporate financing in emerging markets, yet not enough is known about the returns earned by investors in this asset class. Using loan-level cash flow data from the International Finance Corporation\u2014covering 4,109 loans totaling approximately USD 115 billion across 127 countries from 1992 to 2024\u2014we provide the first systematic evidence on realized returns to private debt in emerging and developing economies. The loan portfolio achieves a public market equivalent (PME) of0.98 versus the Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index and a gross internal rate of return of 5.7 percent, indicating that private EMDE debt delivers returns competitive with public market alternatives over three decades. Country-matched benchmarking reveals substantial outperformance relative to local market alternatives (PME of 1.15). Default rates more than double during moderate domestic economic downturns and nearly triple during severe ones, with the steepest deterioration in middle-income countries. We also examine whether there is a trade-off between mission and margin by evaluating performance in the most challenging markets: very low-income and fragile and conflict-affected states. Strikingly, while we do find higher default rates in these environments, returns benchmarked against public market alternatives are statistically indistinguishable from the overall portfolio, suggesting that IFC was able to price credit risk appropriately even in these markets. ","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Private Debt"},{"name":"Emerging Markets"},{"name":"Development Finance"},{"name":"Public Market Equivalent"},{"name":"Impact Investing"}],"topics":[{"id":"G23","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Non-bank Financial Institutions \u2022 Financial Instruments \u2022 Institutional Investors","parent_id":"G2"},{"id":" F34","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"International Lending and Debt Problems","parent_id":"F3"},{"id":" O16","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Financial Markets \u2022 Saving and Capital Investment \u2022 Corporate Finance and Governance","parent_id":"O1"},{"id":" G24","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Investment Banking \u2022 Venture Capital \u2022 Brokerage \u2022 Ratings and Ratings Agencies","parent_id":"G2"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Returns To Private Debt In Emerging And Developing Economies"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time: ~ 30 minutes","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Florian Moelders","affiliation":"IFC","email":"fmoelders@ifc.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"IFC Loan Cash Flow Database","note":"File: Loan cash flows anonymized.dta. Held outside the shareable package; not included. Project-level cash flow records for IFC's lending portfolio (disbursements, repayments, fees, outstanding balances), 1992-2024 (analysis restricted to 2002-2024), by loan tranche and transaction. Borrower identities anonymized; country, sector, income-group retained. Data obtained by the authors in their capacity as IFC\/World Bank Group staff. Access requires contacting the corresponding author, Florian M\u00f6lders (fmoelders@ifc.org), who coordinates internally with IFC; granted at IFC's discretion subject to an NDA. Anonymized file received by the authors from an IFC colleague on May 13, 2025.","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Confidential; not for public release or redistribution","citation":"International Finance Corporation (IFC). 2025. \"IFC Loan Cash Flow Database\" [Confidential dataset]. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. Accessed by authors in institutional capacity, 2024-2026."},{"name":"IFC Loan Terms Database","note":"File: Loan terms_anonymized.dta. Held outside the shareable package; not included. Loan-level terms records for IFC's lending portfolio, including project approval date and contractual loan tenure, for loans approved through 2024. Used to assign approval year and contracted tenor. Data obtained by the authors in their capacity as IFC\/World Bank Group staff. Access requires contacting the corresponding author, Florian M\u00f6lders (fmoelders@ifc.org), who coordinates internally with IFC; granted at IFC's discretion subject to an NDA. Anonymized file received by the authors from an IFC colleague on May 13, 2025.","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Confidential; not for public release or redistribution","citation":"International Finance Corporation (IFC). 2025. \"IFC Loan Terms Database\" [Confidential dataset]. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. Accessed by authors in institutional capacity, 2024-2026."},{"name":"IFC Default Database","note":"File: IFC default data_anonymized.dta. Held outside the shareable package; not included. Institution-year panel of default events in IFC's portfolio (default date, recovery information, anonymized institution identifiers), 1991-2024 (analysis restricted to 2002-2024). Data obtained by the authors in their capacity as IFC\/World Bank Group staff. Access requires contacting the corresponding author, Florian M\u00f6lders (fmoelders@ifc.org), who coordinates internally with IFC; granted at IFC's discretion subject to an NDA. Anonymized file received by the authors from an IFC colleague on May 13, 2025.","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Confidential; not for public release or redistribution","citation":"International Finance Corporation (IFC). 2025. \"IFC Default Database\" [Confidential dataset]. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. Accessed by authors in institutional capacity, 2024-2026."},{"name":"JPMorgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Total Return Index","note":"File location: Data\/Public\/jpm_cembi_broad_diversified_total_return.xlsx. Monthly total return index levels (overall and country sub-indices), coverage from January 2002 for the broad index; key column: 'EM Debt Indices | CEMBI BROAD DIVERSIFIED | Cum Tot Ret Idx'. Proprietary to JPMorgan Chase & Co., distributed under a data license agreement; obtained by the authors via a Bloomberg terminal subscription. Independent replicators must obtain their own access via Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream, or directly from JPMorgan. Accessed February 2026.","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"JPMorgan\/Bloomberg Data License Agreement","citation":"JPMorgan Chase & Co. 2026. \"CEMBI Broad Diversified Total Return Index\" [Data file]. Retrieved via Bloomberg terminal. Accessed February 2026."},{"name":"JPMorgan EMBI Broad Diversified Total Return Index","note":"File location: Data\/Public\/jpm_embi_broad_diversified_total_return.xlsx. Monthly total return index levels, coverage from January 1994. Proprietary to JPMorgan Chase & Co., distributed under a data license agreement; obtained by the authors via a Bloomberg terminal subscription. Independent replicators must obtain their own access via Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream, or directly from JPMorgan. Accessed February 2026.","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"JPMorgan\/Bloomberg Data License Agreement","citation":"JPMorgan Chase & Co. 2026. \"EMBI Broad Diversified Total Return Index\" [Data file]. Retrieved via Bloomberg terminal. Accessed February 2026."},{"name":"US Treasury 7-10 Year Total Return Series","note":"File location: Data\/Public\/us_treasury_7_10yr_total_return_monthly.csv. Monthly total return index for 7-10 year US Treasuries; used as the US Treasury benchmark in Tables 2 and 3. Sourced from Datastream (Thomson Reuters\/LSEG), which requires a paid subscription. Accessed January 2026.","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"LSEG Datastream Subscription License","citation":"LSEG Datastream. 2026. \"US Treasury 7-10 Year Total Return Index\" [Data file]. Retrieved via Datastream. Accessed January 2026."},{"name":"IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database","note":"File location: Data\/Public\/imf_real_gdp_growth_annual.csv. Annual real GDP growth rates for all IMF member countries. Accessed January 2026.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"The Use of IMF Data","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/about\/copyright-and-terms","uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO","citation":"International Monetary Fund. 2026. \"World Economic Outlook Database\" [Data file]. https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO. Accessed January 2026."},{"name":"World Bank Country and Lending Groups - Historical Classification","note":"File location: Data\/Public\/wb_country_income_classification_historical.xlsx. World Bank fiscal-year income group classifications (Low, Lower-Middle, Upper-Middle, High Income) from FY1988 onward, for all World Bank member countries. Accessed February 2026.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","uri":"https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org\/knowledgebase\/articles\/906519","citation":"World Bank. 2026. \"World Bank Country and Lending Groups - Historical Classification\" [Data file]. https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org. Accessed February 2026."},{"name":"ISO Country Master File","note":"File location: Data\/Public\/iso_country_codes_master.xlsx. Authors' compilation: crosswalk of country name variants ('Name Variants') to ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 codes ('iso'), based on the ISO 3166-1 standard and World Bank\/IFC country name conventions. Resolves country names to ISO3 codes in the IFC default database, which has no native ISO3 field. ","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"International Organization for Standardization. \"ISO 3166-1 Country Codes\" [Reference standard]. Compiled with World Bank\/IFC name variants."},{"name":"IFC IDA\/FCS Country Classification List, 2006-2025","note":"File location: Data\/Public\/ifc_fcs_ida_country_classification_2006_2025.xlsx. Country-year panel of IDA eligibility status and Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations (FCS) classification, 2006-2025. Published annually by IFC and can be accessed by IFC staff only. ","access_type":"Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package. It can be accessed by IFC staff. ","citation":"International Finance Corporation (IFC). 2025. \"IFC IDA\/FCS Country Classification List 2006-2025\" [Data file]. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C."},{"name":"World Bank IDA Eligibility","note":"File location: Data\/Public\/wb_ida_eligibility_country_year.xlsx. Country-year panel of IDA eligibility status; used for IDA eligibility classification in Table 8. Accessed February 2026.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/topic\/debt\/brief\/ida-eligibility","citation":"World Bank. 2026. \"IDA Eligibility\" [Data file]. https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/topic\/debt\/brief\/ida-eligibility. Accessed February 2026."},{"name":"World Bank International Debt Statistics (IDS) - EMDE Private Non-Guaranteed External Debt Disbursements","note":"Series DT.DIS.DPNG.CD, fetched automatically at run time by Table_1_Summary_Statistics.py via the World Bank Data API v2. Used in Table 1 (IFC disbursements as a share of EMDE private non-guaranteed debt). A cached copy of the most recent fetch is saved to Data\/Public\/ids_cache_dpng.csv and used as a fallback if the API is unavailable. Accessed April 2026.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","uri":"https:\/\/api.worldbank.org\/v2\/","citation":"World Bank. 2026. \"International Debt Statistics\" [API series DT.DIS.DPNG.CD]. https:\/\/api.worldbank.org\/v2\/. Accessed April 2026."},{"name":"World Development Indicators","note":"File location: Data\/Public\/wdi_macro_indicators_annual.csv. Country-year panel, 1990-2024, all WDI economies, fetched via the wbgapi package. Indicators: NY.GDP.MKTP.KN (real GDP, constant LCU), FP.CPI.TOTL (CPI, 2010=100), NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS (GDP deflator), PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per USD, period average). Accessed June 2026.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/about\/legal\/terms-of-use-for-datasets","uri":"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/","citation":"World Bank. 2026. \"World Development Indicators\" [dataset]. https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/. Accessed June 2026."}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.\n2. **Run the Package:**\n     - Restore the environment in `requirements.txt`.\n     - Run the python script \"main\".\n\nThe reproducibility package was verified virtually due to the proprietary nature of the data. Since not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by author's during the virtual run. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Core(TM) Ultra 7 165U, 2.10 GHz \u2014 1 processor, 12 cores \/ 14 logical processors\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Florian","familyName":"Moelders","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"IFC","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/049rm1a24","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Shawn","familyName":"Cole","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"Harvard Business School","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03vek6s52","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Fanele","familyName":"Mashwama","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"Harvard Business School","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03vek6s52","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Cesaire","familyName":"Meh","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"IFC","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/049rm1a24","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Returns To Private Debt In Emerging And Developing Economies"},{"title":"RR_WLD_2026_699","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_WLD_2026_699","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}