{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-08-17","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Yasuhiro Kawasoe","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"ykawasoe@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Housing Requirements, Hazard Exposure, And Resilience Costs: A Global Outlook To 2100","idno":"RR_WLD_2026_709"},"data_statement":"All data sources are publicly available but not all are included in the reproducibility package.","software":[{"name":"Python","version":"3.13.14"},{"name":"QGIS","version":"3.44.5"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Housing Requirements, Hazard Exposure, And Resilience Costs: A Global Outlook To 2100","date":"2026-08","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2026_709","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2026_709.zip"}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-08-17","abstract":"Global housing demand is rising rapidly, yet the combined pressures of future population growth, climate-driven hazard intensification, and constrained fiscal capacity have not been assessed together for their impact on housing at global scale. Housing is one of the largest components of household wealth and national capital stock. This study provides the first global, country-level picture of future housing construction demand and its associated costs, and identifies where the needs for resilient construction are most urgent. The lack of high-resolution, globally consistent geospatial and demographic data has limited previous analyses. This study integrates Shared Socioeconomic Pathways based population projections to 2100 with dynamic household size modelling, cohort survival analysis, and multi-hazard exposure mapping to estimate future housing construction demand and its associated costs under business-as-usual and resilient construction pathways. Global housing stock is projected to nearly double by 2100, reaching 4.1 to 4.5 billion units. Resilient construction pathways are found to carry lower long-term costs than business-as-usual in most regions, though not in high-growth, high-hazard regions such as South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Construction demand in most regions is projected to transition from growth-driven to replacement-driven by mid-century, suggesting that the decisions made today about how and where it is built will shape countries' exposure to natural hazards and their fiscal obligations for decades to come. This study further identifies 46 countries facing a triple burden: high future housing demand, severe natural hazard exposure, and limited fiscal capacity to finance resilient construction. The nature of this burden varies systematically by region, with Pacific Island Countries facing acute fiscal constraints, Sub-Saharan Africa facing unprecedented volumetric demand, and South and Southeast Asian countries facing the highest hazard exposure. These findings provide a quantitative basis for prioritizing resilient housing investment, nationally and through international support, differentiated across regions and individual countries.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Housing Demand"},{"name":"Resilient Construction"},{"name":"Climate Change"},{"name":"Natural Hazard Exposure"},{"name":"Fiscal Capacity"},{"name":"Population Projections"}],"topics":[{"id":"R31","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Housing Supply and Markets","parent_id":"R3"},{"id":"Q54","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Climate \u2022 Natural Disasters and Their Management \u2022 Global Warming","parent_id":"Q5"},{"id":"H84","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Disaster Aid","parent_id":"H8"},{"id":"I32","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Measurement and Analysis of Poverty","parent_id":"I3"},{"id":"J11","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts","parent_id":"J1"},{"id":"O18","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis \u2022 Housing \u2022 Infrastructure","parent_id":"O1"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)","title":"Housing Requirements, Hazard Exposure, And Resilience Costs: A Global Outlook To 2100","authors":"Yasuhiro Kawasoe"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time: ~48 hours","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Yasuhiro Kawasoe","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"ykawasoe@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB\n","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.\n2. **Run the Package:**\n- Restore the environment using \u201crequirements.txt.\u201d\n- Update the file paths to match the local environment.\n- Run the Jupyter notebooks in the order specified in the README. \n\n**Note:** Since not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper. Additionally, Notebooks 4.1 and 4.2 require a Google Earth Engine account and a registered Google Cloud project to programmatically download some of the data. However, the downloaded and processed files are also included in the reproducibility package in data_processed\/GEM, data_processed\/GEE_flood, and data_processed\/GEE_heat. The included files provide the inputs required to reproduce the subsequent analysis without repeating the data download. \n","datasets":[{"license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/search\/dataset\/0038272\/world-bank-official-boundaries","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.","note":"Filenames: data_raw\\WB_Official_Boundaries\\World Bank Official Boundaries - Admin 0.gpkg, data_raw\\WB_Official_Boundaries\\World Bank Official Boundaries - Admin 0_all_layers.gpkg, data_raw\\WB_Official_Boundaries\\World Bank Official Boundaries - Admin 1.gpkg. File in wb_adm1_2024oct_revised_complete_v20260114\\*.shp are processed files produced using QGIS.","name":"World Bank Official Boundaries (GeoPackage)","citation":"World Bank. \"World Bank Official Boundaries (GeoPackage)\" [dataset]. https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/search\/dataset\/0038272\/world-bank-official-boundaries. Accessed December 2025."},{"license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","name":"World Development Indicators","citation":"World Bank. \"World Development Indicators\" [dataset]. https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators. Accessed November 2025. ","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Filenames: API_NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD_DS2_en_csv_v2_79.csv, API_NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD_DS2_en_csv_v2_1584.csv, API_SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS_DS2_en_csv_v2_51.csv, API_SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS_DS2_en_csv_v2_330.csv, API_SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS_DS2_en_csv_v2_608.csv. Indicators used: GDP, PPP (current international $), GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2021 international $), Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Urban population (% of total population). \n","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators"},{"note":"Filename: CLASS.xlsx. ","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","name":"World Bank Country and Lending Groups","citation":"\"World Bank Country and Lending Groups\" [dataset]. https:\/\/databankfiles.worldbank.org\/public\/ddpext_download\/site-content\/CLASS.xlsx. Accessed November 2025.","uri":"https:\/\/databankfiles.worldbank.org\/public\/ddpext_download\/site-content\/CLASS.xlsx","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"uri":"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/records\/8142652","note":"Filenames: A0_CORESIDENCE_NATIONAL_DATASET_2024.csv, A2_CORESIDENCE_SUBNATIONAL_HARMONIZED_DATASET_2024.csv, SUBNATIONAL_BOUNDARIES_CORESIDENCE_PROJECT.gpkg.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.","citation":"Esteve, A., Galeano, J., Turu, A., Garc\u00eda-Rom\u00e1n, J., Becca, F., Fang, H., Pohl, M. L. C., & Trias Prat, R. (2023). \"The CORESIDENCE Database: National and Subnational Data on Household and Living Arrangements Around the World, 1964-2021\" [dataset]. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.8142652. Accessed January 2026. ","name":"The CORESIDENCE Database: National and Subnational Data on Household and Living Arrangements Around the World, 1964-2021"},{"note":"Filename: data_raw\\UN_Population_division\\undesa_pd_2022_hh-size-composition.xlsx. ","license":"Creative Commons license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/igo\/","uri":"https:\/\/www.un.org\/development\/desa\/pd\/data\/household-size-and-composition","citation":"United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022. \"Database on\nHousehold Size and Composition 2022\" [dataset]. https:\/\/www.un.org\/development\/desa\/pd\/data\/household-size-and-composition. Accessed December 2025. ","name":"Database on Household Size and Composition 2022","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"note":"File location: data_raw\\SSP. Data files: 1.1721734326790-ssp_basic_drivers_release_3.1_full.xlsx contains global, regional, and country-level projections of key socioeconomic drivers for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Release 3.1 (July 2024). These include population, human capital, GDP, and related basic socioeconomic projections produced by contributing modeling teams. 2. SSP-Urbanization-2024-review-phase-3.xlsx contains global, regional, and national urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Review Phase 3 (June 2024). Secondary citation: Jiang, Leiwen. (2024). Review Version of the Urbanization Projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Review Phase 3, June 2024. IIASA SSP Scenario Explorer.","uri":"https:\/\/data.ece.iiasa.ac.at\/ssp\/#\/downloads","citation":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and contributing modeling teams. (2024).\"Socioeconomic Projections of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)\" [dataset]. https:\/\/data.ece.iiasa.ac.at\/ssp. Accessed January 2026. ","license_uri":"https:\/\/ssp.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at\/license","license":"IIASA Public License adapted from Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)","access_type":"Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and is not included in the reproducibility package.","name":"Socioeconomic Projections of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) "},{"access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/product\/global-seismic-hazard-map","uri":"https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/product\/global-seismic-hazard-map","citation":"Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. 2023. \"Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Hazard Map (v2023.1)\" [dataset]. https:\/\/www.globalquakemodel.org\/product\/global-seismic-hazard-map. Accessed January 2026. ","name":"Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Hazard Map (v2023.1)","note":"Filename: data_raw\\GEM\\GEM-GSHM_PGA-475y-rock_v2023. "},{"license":"Modified BSD3","license_uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/bsd-3-clause","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/catalog\/473\/study-description","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Middelanis, R., Jafino, B. A., Hill, R., Nguyen, M. C., Hallegatte, S. 2025. \"Global Unbreakable Model\" [dataset]. https:\/\/github.com\/rmiddelanis\/global-unbreakable-model\/tree\/main\/data\/raw\/GEM_vulnerability. Accessed October 2025. ","note":"File location: data_raw\/GEM. Filenames: hazus-gem_mapping.csv, gem_taxonomy_fields.json, gem-to-vulnerability_mapping_per_hazard.xlsx, building_class_to_vulenrability_mapping.csv, country_vulnerability_classes.csv. The author accessed these files from a GitHub repository (https:\/\/github.com\/rmiddelanis). This repository is no longer active. However,  these files are also included in the publicly available Reproducibility Package for Why Do Some Countries Build Safer? Economic Constraints, Disaster Learning, And The Two-Stage Housing Quality Ladder (https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/catalog\/473\/study-description). They are also included in this reproducibility package. ","name":"Global Unbreakable Model"},{"license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) ","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu\/ghs_wup_pop_r2025a.php","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.","note":"File location: data_raw\\GHSL\\. Dataset: GHS-WUP-POP R2025A \u2013 GHS-WUP population spatial raster dataset, derived from GHS-POP (R2023) and projected using the CRISP model, multitemporal (1975\u20132100). The paper uses data for years 2025. 2030, 20240, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, and 2100. ","citation":"Schiavina, Marcello; Freire, Sergio; Carioli, Alessandra; MacManus, Kytt; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Claassens, Jip; Hilferink, Maarten; Dijkstra, Lewis. 2025. \"Spatial raster dataset grids from 1975 to 2100 (GHS-WUP-POP)\" [dataset]. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC). https:\/\/human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu\/ghs_wup_pop_r2025a.php. Accessed January 2026.","name":"Spatial raster dataset grids from 1975 to 2100 (GHS-WUP-POP)"},{"note":"File location: data_raw\\WorldPop\\.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) ","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/hub.worldpop.org\/doi\/10.5258\/SOTON\/WP00849","citation":"Bondarenko M., Tejedor-Garavito N., Priyatikanto R., Zhang W., Fang W., Nosatiuk B., Gaskell J., McKeen T., Noi E., Hilton J., Butterick J., Hawker L., Tatem A. J. \"Global 1km-grid population projections for 2025-2100 consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3.2 national population projections, version 0.2\" [dataset]. https:\/\/hub.worldpop.org\/doi\/10.5258\/SOTON\/WP00849. Accessed February 2026. ","name":"Global 1km-grid population projections for 2025-2100 consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3.2 national population projections, version 0.2","access_type":"Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints."},{"license":"Creative Commons Zero (CC0)","citation":"Russell, T. (2024). \"STORM tropical cyclone wind speed return periods as global GeoTIFFs\" [dataset]. https:\/\/zenodo.org\/records\/10931452. Accessed March 2026. ","name":"STORM tropical cyclone wind speed return periods as global GeoTIFFs","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/records\/10931452","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/publicdomain\/zero\/1.0\/","note":"File location: data_raw\\STORM\\."},{"license":"Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-sa\/4.0\/","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/gem\/global_exposure_model","note":"This data is fetched programmatically by Notebook 2 (_2_GEM_subnational.ipynb) and is not stored in the package. The notebook retrieves residential exposure CSV files from the GEM Global Exposure Model repository (https:\/\/github.com\/gem\/global_exposure_model) that match the pattern Exposure_Res_*_Adm1.csv. The processed versions of these files are located in data_processed\\GEM. Publication citation: \nYepes-Estrada, C., Calderon, A., Costa, C., Crowley, H., Dabbeek, J., Hoyos, M., Martins, L., Paul, N., Rao, A., Silva, V. (2023). Global Building Exposure Model for Earthquake Risk Assessment. Earthquake Spectra. doi:10.1177\/87552930231194048.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Yepes-Estrada, C., Baiguera, M., Calderon, A., Caruso, M., Costa, C., Gonzalez, D., Nafeh, A.M.B., Rao, A., Silva, V. (2026). \"Global Exposure Model (2026.0.0)\" [dataset]. https:\/\/github.com\/gem\/global_exposure_model. Accessed July 2026.","name":"Global Exposure Model (2026.0.0)"},{"name":" NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)","uri":"https:\/\/developers.google.com\/earth-engine\/datasets\/catalog\/NASA_GDDP-CMIP6","citation":"NASA \/ Climate Analytics Group. \"NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)\" [dataset]. https:\/\/developers.google.com\/earth-engine\/datasets\/catalog\/NASA_GDDP-CMIP6. Accessed March 2026. ","note":"This data is fetched programmatically by Notebook 4.1 (_4_1_GEE_Collect_Heat_IndoorWGBT.ipynb) from the NASA\/GDDP-CMIP6 dataset through Google Earth Engine and is not stored as raw source data in the package. The processed versions of these files are located in data_processed\\GEE_heat. Secondary citation: Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C., & Duffy, P. B., 2012: Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(9), 3309-3314. doi:10.5194\/hess-16-3309-2012.\n\n","license_uri":"https:\/\/developers.google.com\/earth-engine\/datasets\/catalog\/NASA_GDDP-CMIP6#terms-of-use","license":"NASA\/GDDP-CMIP6 Terms of Use","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"license":"WRI Open Data Commitment","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.wri.org\/data\/open-data-commitment","uri":"https:\/\/developers.google.com\/earth-engine\/datasets\/catalog\/WRI_Aqueduct_Flood_Hazard_Maps_V2","name":"Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps Version 2","citation":"World Resources Institute. \"Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps Version 2\". [dataset]. https:\/\/developers.google.com\/earth-engine\/datasets\/catalog\/WRI_Aqueduct_Flood_Hazard_Maps_V2. Accessed March 2026. ","note":"This data is fetched programmatically by Notebook 4.2 (_4_2_GEE_WRI_Aqueduct.ipynb) from the WRI Aqueduct dataset through Google Earth Engine and is not stored as raw source data in the package. The processed versions of these files are located in data_processed\\GEE_flood.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."},{"name":"MOD44W.006 Terra Land Water Mask Derived From MODIS and SRTM Yearly Global 250m","uri":"https:\/\/developers.google.com\/earth-engine\/datasets\/catalog\/MODIS_006_MOD44W#description","license_uri":"https:\/\/developers.google.com\/earth-engine\/datasets\/catalog\/MODIS_006_MOD44W#terms-of-use","license":"MODIS data Terms of Use","citation":"NASA LP DAAC at the USGS EROS Center. \"MOD44W.006 Terra Land Water Mask Derived From MODIS and SRTM Yearly Global 250m\" [dataset]. https:\/\/developers.google.com\/earth-engine\/datasets\/catalog\/MODIS_006_MOD44W#description.  Accessed March 2026.","note":"This data is fetched programmatically by Notebooks 4.1 (_4_1_GEE_Collect_Heat_IndoorWGBT.ipynb) and 4.2 (_4_2_GEE_WRI_Aqueduct.ipynb) through Google Earth Engine and is not stored as raw source data in the package. The processed outputs are saved in data_processed\/GEE_heat and data_processed\/GEE_flood.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package."}]},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Yasuhiro","familyName":"Kawasoe","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Housing Requirements, Hazard Exposure, And Resilience Costs: A Global Outlook To 2100"},{"title":"RR_WLD_2026_709","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_WLD_2026_709","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"Accessible data"},{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"}],"schematype":"script"}