{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-09-23","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Erhan Artuc","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"eartuc@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Alessandro Barattieri","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"abarattieri@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Isambert Leunga Noukwe","affiliation":"University of Sherbrooke","email":"Isambert.Leunga.Noukwe@USherbrooke.ca"},{"name":"Aaditya Mattoo","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"amattoo@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Can The Flying Geese Fly Again? Automation And The Pattern Of Industrialization","idno":"RR_WLD_2026_755"},"data_statement":"This reproducibility package relies on two types of data: open data, which is publicly available from the original sources, and restricted data, which is available only from the data owners. In addition, the authors have embargoed the whole package, including the open data files. The embargo is temporary and does not change the status of the restricted data, which remains available only from the data owners after the embargo ends. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and to the README file.\n","software":[{"name":"R","version":"4.6.1"},{"name":"Stata","version":"18.5 MP"},{"name":"MATLAB","version":"2024a"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Can The Flying Geese Fly Again? Automation And The Pattern Of Industrialization","date":"2026-09","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2026_755","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2026_755.zip","dependencies":"R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock. Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-09-23","abstract":"Three key developments, protectionism, aging, and automation, are affecting the global pattern of industrial production and trade. While these trends affect many countries, they are especially consequential for China, which currently dominates global manufacturing. Using a multi-country model fitted with global trade and robotization data, this paper shows that automation can mitigate the adverse effects of protection and aging on competitiveness, particularly in sectors with a high share of automatable tasks. The impact of a 10% decline in labor force in China would be offset by doubling of robot productivity in vehicles, but robot productivity would need to more than triple in computers.\n","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Robots"},{"name":"International Trade"},{"name":"Aging"}],"topics":[{"id":"F1","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Trade","parent_id":"F"},{"id":" J23","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Labor Demand","parent_id":"J2"},{"id":" J24","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Human Capital \u2022 Skills \u2022 Occupational Choice \u2022 Labor Productivity","parent_id":"J2"},{"id":" O3","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Innovation \u2022 Research and Development \u2022 Technological Change \u2022 Intellectual Property Rights","parent_id":"O"},{"id":" O4","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity","parent_id":"O"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) 11468","title":"Can The Flying Geese Fly Again? Automation And The Pattern Of Industrialization","uri":"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099410209282647426"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Erhan Artuc","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"eartuc@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Inter-Country Input-Output tables (ICIO)","uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/data\/datasets\/inter-country-input-output-tables.html","access_type":"Data is publicly available and will be included in the reproducibility package.","note":"File locations: gross_data\/_2010_SML.csv, gross_data\/_2020_SML.csv. OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables, 2023 release. There are two versions of ICIO: regular ICIO and extended ICIO. The package uses the 2023 release (regular ICIO). The analysis uses data for the year 2020.","citation":"OECD. 2023. \"Inter-Country Input-Output tables (ICIO)\". OECD TiVA database. [dataset]. https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/data\/datasets\/inter-country-input-output-tables.html. Accessed March 2026.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC-BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/about\/terms-conditions.html"},{"name":"International Federation of Robotics (IFR) Data","uri":"https:\/\/ifr.org\/","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","note":"File location: robot_data.dta; raw IFR files are placed in the data_robots folder. Industrial robot data from the International Federation of Robotics, World Robotics 2025. Replicators must obtain the IFR data directly from IFR (private access only) and place it in the data_robots folder before running the package. a list of the variables used are included in variable_inventory.csv. To convert the robot stock into robots per 1,000 workers, the package uses employment data by industry from the OECD Trade in Employment (TiM) 2023 edition (https:\/\/data-explorer.oecd.org\/).","citation":"International Federation of Robotics. (2025). World Robotics 2025 \u2013 Industrial Robots (tech. rep.) [dataset]. Unpublished data. IFR Statistical Department. Frankfurt, Germany."},{"name":"World Population Prospects 2024","uri":"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available and will be included in the reproducibility package.","note":"File locations: gross_data\/UN_PPP2024_Output_Pop20-64.xlsx, popshock35.csv. Population Division of the United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024, population aged 20-64. The package uses the population projection for 2035.","citation":"United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024. [dataset]. https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/. Accessed July 2026.","license":"Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/igo\/"},{"name":"World Development Indicators (WDI): GDP and Population Data","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","access_type":"Data is publicly available and will be included in the reproducibility package.","note":"File locations: gross_data\/data_wdi.xlsx, gross_data\/gdp_pc2.csv. WDI does not provide data for Taiwan, China. Taiwan, China data (real GDP per capita, PPP) is taken from https:\/\/www.worldeconomics.com\/GrossDomesticProduct\/Real-GDP-Per-Capita-PPP\/Taiwan.aspx. File location: gross_data\/GDP_PC_TWN.xls.","citation":"World Bank, 2026. World Development Indicators. [dataset]. https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators. Accessed February 2026.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC-BY 4.0)","license_uri":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/deed.en"}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB\n\u2022 Software version: Stata 18.5 MP, Matlab 2024a, R 4.6.1","technology_requirements":"Runtime: ~2 hours.","reproduction_instructions":"The replication package is currently under a *temporary embargo*. The data and code required to reproduce the results are not yet publicly available but are expected to be released once the paper is accepted to a journal. \n\nOnce the embargo is lifted and the package is published, a new user can reproduce the findings in the paper by following these steps\n1. Run `S1_RUN_STATA` do-file in Stata, after updating the working directory path at the top of the do-file.\n2. Run `S2_RUN_MATLAB` in MATLAB, after updating the working directory path.\n3. Run `S3_RUN_STATA` do-file in Stata, after updating the working directory path at the top of the do-file.\n4. Open the R project, restore the environment, and run `S4_RUN_R`.\nRun the scripts in the order given. The results will appear in the `figures` and `tables` folders.\nNote that the IFR robot data is restricted and is not included in the package. Before step 1, request the data from IFR and place it in the `data_robots` folder."},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Erhan","familyName":"Artuc","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Alessandro","familyName":"Barattieri","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Isambert Leunga","familyName":"Noukwe","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Sherbrooke","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00kybxq39"}]},{"givenName":"Aaditya","familyName":"Mattoo","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Can The Flying Geese Fly Again? Automation And The Pattern Of Industrialization"},{"title":"RR_WLD_2026_755","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_WLD_2026_755","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}