{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-09-22","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Ikuko Uochi","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"iuochi@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Gladys Lopez Acevedo","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"gacevedo@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Alhassane Camara","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"acamara8@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Ha Vu","affiliation":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis","email":"vuhadieu@iiasa.ac.at"},{"name":"Jaime Alfonso Roche Rodriguez","email":"jaimerocherodriguez@gmail.com","affiliation":"Banco de Mexico"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Distributional Effects Of Market-Oriented Reforms In Uzbekistan: A Macro-Micro Simulation Approach","idno":"RR_UZB_2026_728"},"data_statement":"Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"19.5 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Distributional Effects Of Market-Oriented Reforms In Uzbekistan: A Macro-Micro Simulation Approach","date":"2026-09","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_UZB_2026_728","zip_package":"RR_UZB_2026_728.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-09-22","abstract":"Uzbekistan is advancing a comprehensive package of market-oriented reforms as part of its WTO accession strategy, including the abolition of monopolies, trade liberalization (removal of a range of export-related subsidies and tax incentives), the elimination of domestic producer preferences in public procurement, and an anticipated rise in foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper evaluates the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of reforms using an integrated CGE\u2013microsimulation framework that combines the World Bank MANAGE-WB model with household-level data from the 2024 Uzbekistan Household Budget Survey. Results show that the coordinated reform package generates substantial efficiency gains, raising annual GDP growth by approximately 1.0 percentage point above a 5.8 percent baseline between 2025 and 2040, with an additional 0.4 percentage point gain when complemented by an FDI boost. Consumer prices fall cumulatively by up to 19.5 percent, and welfare improvements are driven primarily through enhanced purchasing power rather than nominal wage increases. The abolition of monopolies emerges as the dominant macroeconomic driver, while trade liberalization sustains long-term productivity growth and the removal of procurement preferences plays a complementary role. These gains are uneven across groups including gender, sectors, location, and gender wage gaps remain largely unchanged. The findings underscore the importance of complementarities between competition policy, trade liberalization, and FDI promotion, as well as the need for targeted human capital, labor mobility, and social protection policies to ensure that reforms translate into broadly inclusive outcomes.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Uzbekistan","code":"UZB"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)","title":"Distributional Effects Of Market-Oriented Reforms In Uzbekistan: A Macro-Micro Simulation Approach"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time: ~1 hour","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Ikuko Uochi","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"iuochi@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Uzbekistan Household Budget Survey (HBS)","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","note":"Files location: \/Data\/Raw Data\/UZB 2024 Household Budget\nSurvey\/uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M00_weight.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M01_roster.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M02_migration.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M03_education.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M05_employment.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M07_socben.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M08_nonwage.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M09_food.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M10_nfa.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M10_nfb.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M10_nfc1.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M10_nfc2.dta, uzb_hbs_2024_20241231_M10_nfd.dta, Poverty_Analysis_File@20241231.dta. For more details, refer to the README file.","citation":"Statistics Agency of Uzbekistan. 2024. \"Uzbekistan Household Budget Survey (HBS) 2024\" [dataset]. Accessed 2025."},{"name":"Wittgenstein Centre Population Projections","uri":"https:\/\/dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org\/wcde-v2\/","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"File location: Data\/Raw Data\/UZB 2024 Wittgenstein Population Projection\/wcde_data.csv. The dataset is the Wittgenstein Centre population projections for Uzbekistan by age, sex and level of education, used to reweight the household survey microdata. Replicators can download it from https:\/\/dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org\/wcde-v2\/ by selecting the indicator Population Size by Education for Uzbekistan, with male and female reported separately, all age groups, under the medium (SSP2) scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. For more details, refer to the README file.","citation":"Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC). Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer, Version 2.0 (2018). https:\/\/dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org\/wcde-v2\/. Accessed 2025.","license":"Public"},{"name":"Computable general equilibrium model results for Uzbekistan under Presidential Decree UP-85 scenarios","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","note":"File location: Data\/Intermediate Data\/Microsim_inputs_240326.xlsx. The dataset holds the macroeconomic targets used as exogenous inputs to the microsimulation. It was produced on 24 March 2026 by Alhassane Camara (World Bank) with the World Bank MANAGE-WB model (https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/MANAGE-WB), and is not generated by the code in this package although it is required to run it. The file is included in the package, and questions can be addressed to Alhassane Camara (acamara8@worldbank.org). For more details, refer to the README file.","citation":"Camara, Alhassane (World Bank). 2026. \"Computable general equilibrium model results for Uzbekistan under Presidential Decree UP-85 scenarios\" (Microsim_inputs_240326.xlsx) [dataset].","license":"Public"}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.\n2. **Run the Package:**\n   - Update the username in line 5 and 7 and the working directory in line 8 of the of the do-file `Main_script`, and run it.\n\nSince not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n - OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n - Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) GOLD 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz (2 processors)\n - Memory: 16 GB"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Ikuko","familyName":"Uochi","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Gladys Lopez","familyName":"Acevedo","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Alhassane","familyName":"Camara","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Ha Dei","familyName":"Vu","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"Consultant","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Distributional Effects Of Market-Oriented Reforms In Uzbekistan: A Macro-Micro Simulation Approach"},{"title":"RR_UZB_2026_728","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_UZB_2026_728","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}