{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-10-05","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Alessandro Barattieri","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"abarattieri@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Aaditya Mattoo","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"amattoo@worldbankgroup.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for The China Syndrome 2.0: A Misdiagnosis?","idno":"RR_CHN_2026_762"},"data_statement":"The package relies on three types of data: publicly available data, limited-access data, and restricted data. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and the README file.","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"19.5 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for The China Syndrome 2.0: A Misdiagnosis?","date":"2026-10","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_CHN_2026_762","zip_package":"RR_CHN_2026_762.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-10-05","abstract":"China's growing dominance in manufacturing exports has given rise to concerns about a new \"China Syndrome,\" this time focused on its impact on developing rather than industrial countries. However, emerging explanations of China's export exceptionalism and its consequences suffer from three shortcomings. First, attributing China\u2019s large and increasing share in manufacturing exports primarily to its industrial policy obscures more fundamental factors: the scale of its economy, the diversity of its provincial endowments, and the pace of its automation. Second, focusing on the low-skilled export dimension of China\u2019s economic expansion overlooks its positive impact on growth and its heterogeneous effects on structural transformation in developing countries.\u00a0 Finally, blaming foreign industrial policies distracts attention from the often more damaging trade and investment restrictions imposed by developing countries themselves, many of which could be reformed unilaterally. This misdiagnosis matters because the already narrow window for industrialization in many developing countries may shrink further if the cost of automation falls faster than wages in China rise.","geographic_units":[{"name":"China","code":"CHN"}],"keywords":[{"name":"China"},{"name":"Manufacturing"},{"name":"Competitiveness"},{"name":"Automation"},{"name":"Aging"}],"topics":[{"id":"F14","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Empirical Studies of Trade","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":"O14","name":"Industrialization \u2022 Manufacturing and Service Industries \u2022 Choice of Technology","parent_id":"O1","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel"},{"id":"F63","name":"Economic Development","parent_id":"F6","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)","title":"The China Syndrome 2.0: A Misdiagnosis?"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time: ~15 minutes.","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Alessandro Barattieri","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"abarattieri@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level (Base pour l'Analyse du Commerce International)","note":"Source: Center for Prospective Studies and International Information \u2013 CEPII Centre d'\u00c9tudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales \nVersion: V202401, HS 2012 nomenclature, years 2012-2022. \nAccess date: January 2024. \nFile location: \"1_DATASETS\". File names: BACI_HS12_Y2012_V202401 ... BACI_HS12_Y2022_V202401; BACI_ISO_CODES.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Etalab Open Licence 2.0","license_url":"https:\/\/www.etalab.gouv.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/open-licence.pdf","uri":"https:\/\/www.cepii.fr\/DATA_DOWNLOAD\/baci\/doc\/baci_webpage.html","citation":"Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010). \"BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version\" [dataset]. CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23. CEPII. https:\/\/www.cepii.fr\/DATA_DOWNLOAD\/baci\/doc\/baci_webpage.html. Accessed January 2024.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.etalab.gouv.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/open-licence.pdf"},{"name":"World Robotics Report Data","note":"Source: International Federation of Robotics (IFR).\nAccess date: May 2025. \nFile location: \"1_DATASETS\/robot_wrk_industry_by_country_250522.dta\u201d.","access_type":"Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"World Robotics License Agreement","license_url":"https:\/\/vdma-verlag.com\/download_10BDB.html","uri":"https:\/\/ifr.org\/worldrobotics\/","citation":"International Federation of Robotics. (2025). \"World Robotics\" [dataset]. IFR. https:\/\/ifr.org\/worldrobotics\/. Accessed May 2025.","license_uri":"https:\/\/vdma-verlag.com\/download_10BDB.html"},{"name":"Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Data","note":"Source: OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). \nYears: 1995-2022. \nAccess date: September 2025. \nFile location: \"1_DATASETS\". \nFile names: TiVA_2025; EXGR_DVA_W.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","license_url":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/about\/terms-conditions.html","uri":"https:\/\/data-explorer.oecd.org\/vis?pg=0&bp=true&snb=12&tm=TIVA&df[ds]=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&df[id]=DSD_TIVA_MAINLV%40DF_MAINLV&df[ag]=OECD.STI.PIE&df[vs]=1.1&dq=FFD_DVA.AUS..W..A&pd=2015,&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false","citation":"OECD. (2025). \"Trade in Value Added (TiVA) 2025 edition\" [dataset]. OECD Data Explorer. https:\/\/data-explorer.oecd.org\/vis?pg=0&bp=true&snb=12&tm=TIVA&df[ds]=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&df[id]=DSD_TIVA_MAINLV%40DF_MAINLV&df[ag]=OECD.STI.PIE&df[vs]=1.1&dq=FFD_DVA.AUS..W..A&pd=2015,&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false. Accessed September 2025.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/about\/terms-conditions.html"},{"name":"World Development Indicators (WDI)","note":"Source: World Bank\nIndicators used: GDP (current US$) [NY.\u200bGDP.\u200bMKTP.\u200bCD] and GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) [NY.GDP.PCAP.KD]. \nAccess date: September 2026 (GDP); May 2025 (GDP per capita). \nFile location: \"1_DATASETS\". \nFile names: GDP_WDI; GDP_PC_WDI.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_url":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/public-licenses?fragment=cc","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","citation":"World Bank. (2026). \"World Development Indicators\" [dataset]. World Bank. Indicators accessed: GDP; GDP per capita. https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators. Accessed May 2025 and September 2026.","license_uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/public-licenses?fragment=cc"},{"name":"World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES)","note":"Source: World Bank.\nAccess date: July 2026. \nFile location: \"1_DATASETS\/New_Comprehensive_January_22_2026\u201d.","access_type":"Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","license_url":"https:\/\/login.enterprisesurveys.org\/en\/terms","uri":"https:\/\/login.enterprisesurveys.org\/en\/signin","citation":"World Bank. (2026). \"Enterprise Surveys\" [dataset]. World Bank. https:\/\/www.enterprisesurveys.org. Accessed July 2026.","license_uri":"https:\/\/login.enterprisesurveys.org\/en\/terms"},{"name":"Sector-Level Skill Intensity Data","note":"Source: Hannes Malmberg (2025).\nAccess date: February 2026. \nFile location: \"1_DATASETS\/table_skill_payroll_share_isic44d_rev.csv\u201d","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"Malmberg, Hannes. \"Sector-Level Skill Intensity Data.\" From \"Skill Bias and Development: Evidence from Trade and Industry Data.\" Working paper, revise and resubmit at the Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics. Accessed February 2026.\n"},{"name":"World Bank Country and Lending Groups","note":"Source: World Bank.\nAccess date: January 2023. \nFile location: \"1_DATASETS\". \nFile names: Classification-economies-23.dta; Income_TOMerge; Regions_TOMerge.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","license_url":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/ext\/en\/legal\/terms-conditions\/datasets","uri":"https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org\/knowledgebase\/articles\/906519","citation":"World Bank. (2023). \"World Bank Country and Lending Groups\" [dataset]. World Bank. https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org\/knowledgebase\/articles\/906519. Accessed January 2023.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/ext\/en\/legal\/terms-conditions\/datasets"},{"name":"Harmonized System 6-digit (HS6) - International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) Rev. 4 Correspondence Table","note":"Source: Jordan Industrial Observatory.\nAccess date: January 2026. \nFile location: \"1_DATASETS\/HS6_ISIC4.txt\u201d.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/observatory.huzaifazoom.org\/blog\/2022\/04\/18\/hs-isic-correspondence-table\/","citation":"Jordan Industrial Observatory. (2022). \"HS - ISIC Correspondence Table\" [dataset]. https:\/\/observatory.huzaifazoom.org\/blog\/2022\/04\/18\/hs-isic-correspondence-table\/. Accessed January 2026."}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.\n2. **Run the Package:**\n  - Update the working directory in line 8 of the do-file `Main_replication_file`, and run it.\n\nSince not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Alessandro","familyName":"Barattieri","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Aaditya","familyName":"Mattoo","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for The China Syndrome: A Misdiagnosis?"},{"title":"RR_CHN_2026_762","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_CHN_2026_762","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}