{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-10-05","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Wilfried Kouame","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"wkouame@worldbank.org"},{"name":"John Nana Francois","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"jfrancois1@worldbankgroup.org"},{"name":"Franz Ruch","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"fruch@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Fiscal Multipliers Of Government Health And Education Expenditures: Evidence From Electoral Budget Cycles","idno":"RR_WLD_2026_742"},"data_statement":"Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, refer to the README file.","software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"19.5 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Fiscal Multipliers Of Government Health And Education Expenditures: Evidence From Electoral Budget Cycles","date":"2026-10","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_WLD_2026_742","zip_package":"RR_WLD_2026_742.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-10-05","abstract":"We estimate the fiscal multiplier of government health and education expenditures\u2014often classified as merit goods\u2014in developing countries. We propose a novel identification strategy that exploits two features of the budget process and electoral environment: (1) approved budget allocations are legislated before the fiscal year begins and, given the multi-year nature of health and education programs, reflect planning decisions taken well in advance of contemporaneous output shocks, and (2) constitutionally predetermined electoral timing generates well-documented political incentives for incumbent governments to increase and accelerate the execution of planned budgets in visible sectors like health and education ahead of elections. Our instrument therefore interacts predetermined budget allocations with electoral cycle timing to isolate electorally driven merit goods spending. We find robust and reasonably precisely estimated merit goods multipliers of around 2. Multipliers are larger in recessions, supporting health and education spending as effective countercyclical fiscal tools. Furthermore, multipliers are larger where shares of merit goods spending in output are low, which reflects stronger stimulative effects where unmet needs are greatest. Additionally, better institutions, proxied by control of corruption, condition the size of the multiplier. These findings suggest that government spending on health and education can yield a dual dividend, boosting economic activity even before their well-known longer-term productivity gains of a healthier and more educated population materialize.","geographic_units":[{"name":"World","code":"WLD"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Education"},{"name":"Health"},{"name":"Merit Goods"},{"name":"Government Spending Multipliers"},{"name":"Instrumental Variables"},{"name":"Electoral Budget Cycles"}],"topics":[{"id":"C26","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation","parent_id":"C2"},{"id":" E62","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Fiscal Policy \u2022 Modern Monetary Theory","parent_id":"E6"},{"id":" H42","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Publicly Provided Private Goods","parent_id":"H4"},{"id":" H51","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Government Expenditures and Health","parent_id":"H5"},{"id":" H52","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Government Expenditures and Education","parent_id":"H5"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)","title":"Fiscal Multipliers Of Government Health And Education Expenditures: Evidence From Electoral Budget Cycles"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Run time: ~10 minutes.","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Wilfried Kouame","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"wkouame@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"BOOST Public Expenditure Database","note":"Source: World Bank, internal cleaned version available for World Bank staff only.\nAccess date: April 24, 2025.\nFile location: \"DataConstruction\/_clean BOOST long_04_24_25.dta\".","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package. Available to World Bank Staff only.","license":"Custom license","citation":"World Bank. (2025). \"BOOST Public Expenditure Database\" [dataset]. World Bank, internal cleaned version (April 2025). Accessed April 2025."},{"name":"National Elections across Democracy and Autocracy (NELDA) Database \u2013 Version 6.0","note":"Source: Hyde and Marinov (2012), NELDA project.\nAccess date: April 2025.\nFile location: \"DataConstruction\/NELDA_10_13_2024.dta\".","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","uri":"https:\/\/nelda.co\/#access","citation":"Hyde, Susan D., and Nikolay Marinov. (2012). \"National Elections across Democracy and Autocracy (NELDA), Version 6\" [dataset]. https:\/\/nelda.co\/. Accessed April 2025. Associated article: Hyde, S. D., and N. Marinov. 2012. \"Which Elections Can Be Lost?\" Political Analysis 20(2): 191\u2013201."},{"name":"World Development Indicators (WDI)","note":"Source: World Bank.\nIndicators used: Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %) [NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG]; Tax revenue (current LCU) [GC\u200b.TAX\u200b.TOTL\u200b.CN]; Revenue, excluding grants (current LCU) [GC\u200b.REV\u200b.XGRT\u200b.CN]; Lending interest rate (%) [FR.INR.LEND]; Net barter terms of trade index (2015 = 100) [TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD]; Net official development assistance received (current US$) [DT\u200b.ODA\u200b.ODAT\u200b.CD]; Net official development assistance and official aid received (current US$) [DT\u200b.ODA\u200b.ALLD\u200b.CD]; GDP (constant LCU) [NY\u200b.GDP\u200b.MKTP\u200b.KN]; GDP (current LCU) [NY\u200b.GDP\u200b.MKTP\u200b.CN]; GDP (constant 2015 US$) [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD]; GDP (current US$) [NY\u200b.GDP\u200b.MKTP\u200b.CD]; Age dependency ratio, young (% of working-age population) [SP.POP.DPND.YG]; Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population) [SP.POP.DPND]; Age dependency ratio, old (% of working-age population) [SP.POP.DPND.OL]; Control of Corruption: Estimate [CC.EST].\nAccess date: April 2025.\nFile location: \"DataConstruction\".\nFile names: Inflation_wdi_v.xlsx; Interest_Rates.xlsx; Terms_of_Trade_WDI.xlsx; NetODA_WDI.xlsx; Model_variables_new.xlsx; WDICodes_WorldBank2024.dta.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)","license_url":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/public-licenses","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","citation":"World Bank. (2025). \"World Development Indicators\" [dataset]. World Bank. https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators. Accessed April 2025.","license_uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/public-licenses"},{"name":"Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)","note":"Source: World Bank.\nIndicators used: Voice and Accountability; Political Stability and Absence of Violence.\nAccess date: April 2025.\nFile location: \"DataConstruction\".\nFile names: Voice_WGI.xlsx; Political_stability_wdi.xlsx.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","license_url":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/ext\/en\/legal\/terms-conditions\/datasets","uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/publication\/worldwide-governance-indicators","citation":"World Bank. (2025). \"Worldwide Governance Indicators\" [dataset]. World Bank. https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/publication\/worldwide-governance-indicators. Accessed April 2025.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/ext\/en\/legal\/terms-conditions\/datasets"},{"name":"World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database","note":"Source: International Monetary Fund. Indicator used: general government gross debt.\nAccess date: April 2025.\nFile location: \"DataConstruction\/WEO_PublicDebt.dta\".","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"IMF Copyright and Usage terms","license_url":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/about\/copyright-and-terms","uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/weo\/weo-database\/2025\/april","citation":"International Monetary Fund. (2025). \"World Economic Outlook Database, April 2025\" [dataset]. IMF. https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/weo\/weo-database\/2025\/april. Accessed April 2025.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/about\/copyright-and-terms"},{"name":"World Bank Country and Lending Groups","note":"Source: World Bank.\nFile location: \"DataConstruction\/region_dummy.dta\".","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom license","license_url":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/ext\/en\/legal\/terms-conditions\/datasets","uri":"https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org\/knowledgebase\/articles\/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups","citation":"World Bank. (2025). \"World Bank Country and Lending Groups\" [dataset]. World Bank. https:\/\/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org\/knowledgebase\/articles\/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups. Accessed April 2025.","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/ext\/en\/legal\/terms-conditions\/datasets"}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. **Secure Access to Data:** Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.\n2. **Run the Package:**\n  - Update the working directory in line 38 of the do-file `MASTER_REPLICATIONCODE_FKR2026`, and run it.\n\nSince not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Wilfried","familyName":"Kouame","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"John Nana","familyName":"Francois","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Franz","familyName":"Ruch","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Fiscal Multipliers Of Government Health And Education Expenditures: Evidence From Electoral Budget Cycles"},{"title":"RR_WLD_2026_742","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_WLD_2026_742","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Open Data"}],"schematype":"script"}