{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-10-09","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Devaki Ghose","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"dghose@worldbankgroup.org"},{"name":"Shafaat Khan","affiliation":"Syracuse University","email":"shafaatyar.k@gmail.com"},{"name":"Angella Faith Montfaucon","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"amontfaucon@worldbank.org"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Unpacking Non-Tariff Measures: Beyond The Tip Of The Iceberg","idno":"RR_IDN_2026_708"},"software":[{"name":"Stata","version":"19.0 MP"},{"name":"MATLAB","version":"2024a"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Unpacking Non-Tariff Measures: Beyond The Tip Of The Iceberg","date":"2026-10","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_IDN_2026_708","zip_package":"RR_IDN_2026_708.zip","dependencies":"Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-10-09","abstract":"Rising protectionism has shifted trade policy toward non-tariff measures (NTMs), yet their economic effects are not well captured by standard ad-valorem equivalents. This paper shows that NTMs affect trade not only by raising costs, but by altering firms\u2019 adjustment margins and trade dynamics. We assemble a novel, highly disaggregated dataset of NTMs and combine it with transaction-level import and inventory data from Indonesia. Embedding these data in a dynamic trade model, we map observed firm behavior---imports, ordering frequency, and inventories---into underlying cost components, allowing us to decompose NTMs into fixed ordering costs, delivery delays, and iceberg costs. We find that NTMs impose substantial non-ad-valorem frictions. Pre-shipment inspections primarily increase fixed ordering costs, while product standards and import authorization requirements raise both fixed costs and delivery delays. NTMs significantly reshape the response to trade shocks. In the presence of NTMs, supply disruptions lead to larger inventory drawdowns and more persistent price increases, while temporary tariff shocks become more persistent due to slower inventory rebuilding. We also document substantial heterogeneity across end-use categories, with the same NTM operating through different adjustment margins across capital, consumption, and intermediate goods. Overall, our results show that NTMs play a central role in shaping not only the level of trade, but also how trade adjusts and evolves in response to shocks.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Indonesia","code":"IDN"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Non-Tariff Measures"},{"name":"Trade Costs"},{"name":"Inventories"},{"name":"Delivery Delays"}],"topics":[{"id":"F13","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Trade Policy \u2022 International Trade Organizations","parent_id":"F1"},{"id":" F15","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Economic Integration","parent_id":"F1"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)","title":"Unpacking Non-Tariff Measures: Beyond The Tip Of The Iceberg"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime: ~2 hours.","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Devaki Ghose","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"dghose@worldbankgroup.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","affiliation":"World Bank","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Indonesian Customs Import Transaction Level Microdata - 2014-2018","note":"Filename: Data\/Raw\/import_concorded_v2.dta. Confidential transaction-level Indonesian customs import data from the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (DGCE), Ministry of Finance, accessed through a World Bank collaboration. Used to build annual firm-HS6-country import values, weights, and transaction counts for the HS6-year trade panel. A list of variables is provided in variable_inventory.csv, and the file hash is in data_hash_report.csv. For more details on the data, interested users can reach out to one of the authors at dghose@worldbankgroup.org","access_type":"Data is restricted and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Confidential","citation":"Indonesian Directorate General of Customs and Excise, Ministry of Finance. Indonesian Customs Import Transaction Level Microdata - 2014-2018 [dataset]. Unpublished data. Accessed through a World Bank collaboration."},{"name":"Indonesian Customs Export Microdata, 2015-2022","note":"Filename: Data\/Raw\/indonesia_exports_annual_2015_2022.dta. Confidential annual Indonesian customs export data from DGCE, Ministry of Finance, accessed through a World Bank collaboration. Used to construct firm-year export totals for the firm-size heterogeneity analysis (Appendix Table D.1). A list of variables is provided in variable_inventory.csv and the file hash in data_hash_report.csv. For more details on the data, interested users can reach out to one of the authors at dghose@worldbankgroup.org.","access_type":"Data is restricted, and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Confidential","citation":"Indonesian Directorate General of Customs and Excise, Ministry of Finance.Indonesian Customs Export Microdata, 2015-2022 [dataset]. Unpublished data. Accessed through a World Bank collaboration."},{"name":"Annual Manufacturing Survey, plant-level microdata","note":"Filename: Data\/Raw\/plant_year_5digitKBLI_data.dta. Restricted plant-year manufacturing microdata from BPS-Statistics Indonesia with 5-digit KBLI industry codes, output, inputs, imports, exports, inventories, and other plant characteristics. Used to build the plant-year inventory panel and the sales-based firm-size heterogeneity analysis. A list of variables is provided in variable_inventory.csv, and the file hash is in data_hash_report.csv. For more details on the data, interested users can reach out to one of the authors at dghose@worldbankgroup.org.","access_type":"Data is restricted, and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Confidential","citation":"Badan Pusat Statistik. Annual Manufacturing Survey, plant-level manufacturing microdata [dataset]. Unpublished data. "},{"name":"Indonesia Non-Tariff Measures Dataset, NTM Panel: Indonesia (2008-2021 vintage)","note":"Filename: Data\/Raw\/NTM_HS_Panel_2008-2021_trade.dta. HS10-month NTM, tariff, and trade exposure panel built by the World Bank from ERIA\/UNCTAD NTM data and UNCTAD TRAINS tariffs. Used to construct HS6-year NTM and tariff exposure for the trade regressions and upstream IO-sector NTM exposure for the inventory regressions. The earlier vintage used in this package is not publicly available for download; the World Bank Data Catalog currently publishes the newer version, NTM-Panel: Indonesia 2008-2023. A list of variables is provided in variable_inventory.csv, and the file hash is in data_hash_report.csv. For more details on the data, interested users can reach out to one of the authors at dghose@worldbankgroup.org.","access_type":"The vintage used in the paper is not publicly available and is not included in the reproducibility package.","citation":"World Bank. Indonesia Non-Tariff Measures Dataset, NTM Panel: Indonesia [dataset]. World Bank Data Catalog.","uri":"https:\/\/datacatalog.worldbank.org\/search\/dataset\/0063543\/indonesia-non-tariff-measures"},{"name":"HS Consolidation Correspondence through 2017","note":"Filename: Data\/Raw\/Consolidation_Until_2017.dta; Data\/Raw\/Consolidation_Until_2017_BEC.dta. HS concordance prepared by the authors (World Bank) based on publicly available HS and BEC correspondences. Used to harmonize HS-2007 HS6 product codes to consolidated HS-2017 HS6 codes.","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom License","citation":"Author's compilation, World Bank. (2026). HS Consolidation Correspondence through 2017, based on publicly available HS correspondence [dataset]."},{"name":"Indonesian Standard Commodity Classification (KBKI) ","note":"Filename: Data\/Raw\/kbki2015_0t4_11.dta. HS2012-to-KBLI2009 concordance (KBKI 2015, Sections 0-4 and 11) published by BPS-Statistics Indonesia in PDF format and digitized by the authors. Used to map HS products to 5-digit KBLI industries. Source PDFs: Book 1 (Publication No. 03120.1503), Book 2 (03120.1504), Book 3 (03120.1505), Book 4 (03120.1506), available at https:\/\/ppid.bps.go.id.","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Public source","citation":"Badan Pusat Statistik. 2015. Indonesian Standard Commodity Classification 1998\/1999, KBLI 2009, HS 2012, Buku 1-4 Komoditas Barang. Jakarta: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.","uri":"https:\/\/ppid.bps.go.id\/upload\/doc\/Korespondensi_KBKI_dengan_KKI_1998_1999_-_KBLI_2009_-_HS_2012__Buku_1_1659512732.pdf"},{"name":"2016 Indonesia Input-Output Table","note":"Filename: Data\/Raw\/IO 2016.xlsx. 2016 Indonesia input-output table published by BPS in PDF format and converted by the authors to Excel. The code imports sheet \"185, Total, Purchaser\" and reshapes the IO matrix into source-destination input shares.","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Central Statistics Agency (BPS) Terms of Use","citation":"Badan Pusat Statistik. 2021. 2016 Indonesia Input-Output Table [dataset]. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik. https:\/\/www.bps.go.id\/id\/publication\/2021\/03\/31\/081f6b0af2c15c524d72b660\/tabel-input---output-indonesia-2016.html","uri":"https:\/\/www.bps.go.id\/id\/publication\/2021\/03\/31\/081f6b0af2c15c524d72b660\/tabel-input---output-indonesia-2016.html","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.bps.go.id\/id\/term-of-use"},{"name":"Input-Output (IO) Sectors to Standard Classification of Indonesian Business Fields (KBLI) Concordance","note":"Filename: Data\/Raw\/IO_KBLI5digs.dta. Raw IO-sector-to-5-digit-KBLI concordance used to map plant KBLI industries to IO sectors.","access_type":"Data is included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Custom License","citation":"Authors' compilation, World Bank. (2026). Input-Output (IO) Sectors to Standard Classification of Indonesian Business Fields (KBLI) Concordance"},{"name":"World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) Product Concordance: HS 2012 (H4) to HS 2007 (H3)","note":"Filename: Data\/Raw\/JobID-80_Concordance_H4_to_H3.CSV. HS2012-to-HS2007 concordance used to connect HS2012-KBLI mappings to the HS2007 NTM panel. On the WITS page, select the H4 to H3 concordance file.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Public","citation":"World Integrated Trade Solution. (2026). Product Concordance: H4 to H3. World Bank. https:\/\/wits.worldbank.org\/product_concordance.html","uri":"https:\/\/wits.worldbank.org\/product_concordance.html"}],"reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:\n1. Secure access to data: obtain the datasets not included in the package (see the Datasets section) and place them in Data\/Raw, keeping the file names listed in data_hash_report.csv.\n2. Reduced-form results (Stata): open Codes\/00_master.do, update the global root on line 52, keep all RUN switches equal to 1, and run the script. Tables are written to Output\/ReducedForm and Figure 1 to Output\/Figures.\n3. Structural model, step 1 (MATLAB): run Model\/code\/master_montecarlo_PE.m to generate the Monte Carlo simulation files.\n4. Structural model, step 2 (Stata): from the Model folder, run regressions_PE.do.\n5. Structural model, step 3 (MATLAB): run Model\/matrix_inversion.m.\n6. Structural model, step 4 (MATLAB): run Model\/code\/master.m for the counterfactual simulations and Figures 2 and 3.\n\nStructural-model tables are written to Model\/Tex files and figures to Model\/code\/Figures. See Model\/README.md for details.\n\n**Note:** The structural model (steps 3 to 6) does not use any of the restricted data and can be run without obtaining it. It reproduces Tables 3, 4, 5 and 7, Figures 2 and 3, and Appendix Tables D.4 to D.7. Table 5 is printed to the MATLAB console rather than saved to a file. The reduced-form part (step 2) requires the restricted data. However, users without access can rebuild Tables 2 and 6 and Appendix Tables D.2 and D.3 from the saved regression estimates included in Output\/ReducedForm. To do so, set all RUN switches in Codes\/00_master.do to 0 except RUN_TABLE_ASSEMBLY, and run the script.\n","data_statement":"The reproducibility package relies on two types of data: open and restricted data. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and the README file.","technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\n\u2022 OS: Windows 11 Enterprise\n\u2022 Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)\n\u2022 Memory available: 32.0 GB"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Devaki","familyName":"Ghose","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04"}]},{"givenName":"Shafaat","familyName":"Khan","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"Syracuse University","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/025r5qe02"}]},{"givenName":"Angella Faith","familyName":"Montfaucon","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00ae7jd04","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Unpacking Non-Tariff Measures: Beyond The Tip Of The Iceberg"},{"title":"RR_IDN_2026_708","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_IDN_2026_708","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}