{"type":"script","doc_desc":{"producers":[{"name":"Reproducibility WBG","abbr":"DECDI","affiliation":"World Bank - Development Impact Department","role":"Verification and preparation of metadata"}],"prod_date":"2026-11-05","version":"1"},"project_desc":{"authoring_entity":[{"name":"Steven Michael Pennings","affiliation":"World Bank Group","email":"spennings@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Arthur Galego Mendes","affiliation":"World Bank Group","email":"agalegomendes@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Thuy Lan Nguyen","affiliation":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco","email":"lan.nguyen@sf.frb.org"},{"name":"Wataru Miyamoto","affiliation":"University of Hong Kong","email":"wataru.miyamoto1@gmail.com"}],"title_statement":{"title":"Reproducibility package for Cash Transfers in Developing Countries: Local Multipliers, Aggregate Effects, and External Adjustment","idno":"RR_SSA_2026_799"},"data_statement":"The reproducibility package relies on 3 types of data: open, accessible, and restricted data. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and the README file.","software":[{"name":"MATLAB","version":"R2024b"},{"name":"Dynare","version":"5.4"},{"name":"Stata","version":"18.0 MP"}],"scripts":[{"title":"Reproducibility package for Cash Transfers in Developing Countries: Local Multipliers, Aggregate Effects, and External Adjustment","date":"2026-11","notes":"Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.","instructions":"See README in reproducibility package.","file_name":"RR_SSA_2026_799","zip_package":"RR_SSA_2026_799.zip","dependencies":"No user-written Stata packages are required."}],"repository_uri":[{"name":"Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)","uri":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org"}],"production_date":"2026-11-05","abstract":"This paper studies the local and aggregate effects of cash transfers in developing countries, and how both change as the cash transfer program scales up. The paper features a two-region New Keynesian small open economy model and which is calibrated to rich pre-treatment microdata from an ongoing cash transfer experiment in Malawi. The model implies a local multiplier on temporary transfers of about one, which depends on price stickiness, the share of liquidity-constrained households, and home bias in consumption. Spillovers to the rest of the country are negative under Malawi\u2019s restricted international capital mobility and parallel exchange rate regimes, as cash transfers appreciate the real exchange rate and reduce exports. Consequently, the aggregate multiplier is less than the local multiplier. As the program scales up, the local multiplier converges toward the aggregate multiplier, so a scaled-up program may have smaller multipliers than micro-level estimates suggest. However, with unrestricted capital mobility, spillovers can be positive, especially under a fixed exchange rate. These results highlight the importance of the macroeconomic policy environment for aggregate multipliers and the effects of scaled-up transfer programs.","geographic_units":[{"name":"Sub-Saharan Africa","code":"SSA"},{"name":"Malawi","code":"MWI"}],"keywords":[{"name":"Cash Transfers"},{"name":"Fiscal Multipliers"},{"name":"Local Multipliers"},{"name":"Parallel Exchange Rate"},{"name":"External Adjustment"}],"topics":[{"id":"E62","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Fiscal Policy \u2022 Modern Monetary Theory","parent_id":"E6"},{"id":" F31","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Foreign Exchange","parent_id":"F3"},{"id":" F41","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Open Economy Macroeconomics","parent_id":"F4"},{"id":" I38","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Government Policy \u2022 Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs","parent_id":"I3"},{"id":" O11","uri":"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/econlit\/jelCodes.php?view=jel","vocabulary":"Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)","name":"Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development","parent_id":"O1"}],"output":[{"type":"Working Paper","description":"Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)","title":"Cash Transfers in Developing Countries: Local Multipliers, Aggregate Effects, and External Adjustment"}],"language":[{"name":"English","code":"EN"}],"technology_requirements":"Runtime ~ 3 minutes (MATLAB\/Dynare part ~2.5 minutes; Stata part under 1 minute).","disclaimer":"The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.","license":[{"name":"MIT License","uri":"https:\/\/opensource.org\/license\/mit"},{"name":"World Bank IGO Rider","uri":"https:\/\/github.com\/worldbank\/metadata-editor\/blob\/main\/WB-IGO-RIDER.md"}],"contacts":[{"name":"Steven Michael Pennings","affiliation":"World Bank Group","email":"spennings@worldbank.org"},{"name":"Reproducibility World Bank Group","affiliation":"World Bank Group","email":"reproducibility@worldbank.org"}],"datasets":[{"name":"Global Findex Database 2025, country-level data","note":"Filename: RawData\/GlobalFindexDatabase2025.xlsx. World Bank Global Findex Database 2025 country-level file (Data sheet). Accessed 21 October 2026. Used for the Section 2.2 control-region hand-to-mouth share (STATA\/Calibration_handtomouth_share_control_region.do).","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)","citation":"World Bank. (2025). Global Findex Database 2025 [dataset]. World Bank. https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/publication\/globalfindex\/Data","uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/publication\/globalfindex\/download-data","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/ext\/en\/legal\/terms-conditions\/datasets"},{"name":"World Development Indicators","note":"Filename: RawData\/WDI_inflation.xls. World Bank World Development Indicators, indicators FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG (inflation, consumer prices, annual %) and NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG (inflation, GDP deflator, annual %), Malawi, accessed 21 March 2026. Used to produce Figure B7 (Figures\/FigureB7.xlsx).","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)","citation":"World Bank. (2026). World Development Indicators [dataset]. World Bank. https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","uri":"https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators","license_uri":"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/ext\/en\/legal\/terms-conditions\/datasets"},{"name":"Malawi Economic Explorer, exchange rates","note":"Filename: RawData\/malawi_exchange_rates_wfp.csv. Official and parallel Malawi kwacha\/USD exchange rates, WFP DataViz Economic Explorer, accessed 21 June 2026. Used in Figure 1 and the local-multiplier model calibration.","access_type":"Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Public","citation":"World Food Programme. (2026). Malawi Economic Explorer, exchange rates [dataset]. WFP DataViz. https:\/\/dataviz.vam.wfp.org\/southern-africa\/malawi\/economic\/exchange-rates","uri":"https:\/\/dataviz.vam.wfp.org\/southern-africa\/malawi\/economic\/exchange-rates"},{"name":"Global Findex 2017 microdata","note":"Filename: RawData\/RESTRICTED_DATA\/micro_world.dta. World Bank Global Findex 2017 household-level microdata, World Bank Microdata Library catalog 3324. Free of charge but requires a Microdata Library login, so it is not redistributed in the published package. Downloaded 19 April 2026. Used for the hand-to-mouth share by income quintile (Figure B2, STATA\/FigureB2.do). The reviewer independently downloaded this file from the Microdata Library (not received from the authors) and reproduced Figure B2 from it. The file hash is in data_hash_report.csv. To obtain the Global Findex 2017 microdata (`micro_world.dta`), register for a free World Bank Microdata Library account and download catalog 3324, then place the file in RawData\/RESTRICTED_DATA\/.","access_type":"Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution, and is not included in the reproducibility package","license":"Public Use Files","citation":"World Bank. (2017). Global Findex 2017 microdata [dataset]. World Bank Microdata Library, catalog 3324. https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/3324","uri":"https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/3324","license_uri":"https:\/\/microdata.worldbank.org\/terms-of-use"},{"name":"Baseline household (Phases I-II) and Enterprise surveys, Chiradzulu, Malawi","note":"Filenames: RawData\/RESTRICTED_DATA\/ENT_Market_BL_Phase_1\/enterprise_baseline_data.dta; RawData\/RESTRICTED_DATA\/ENT_Market_BL_Phase_1\/enterprise_baseline_data_13_03_2026.dta; RawData\/RESTRICTED_DATA\/ENT_Market_BL_Phase_1\/ent_baseline_codebook.csv; RawData\/RESTRICTED_DATA\/HH_BL_Survey_Phase_1\/2026_04_27_hh_baseline_data.dta; RawData\/RESTRICTED_DATA\/HH_BL_Survey_Phase_1\/2026_04_27_hh_baseline_codebook.csv; RawData\/RESTRICTED_DATA\/HH_BL_Survey_Phase_2\/hh_baseline_phase2_2026_04_20.dta; RawData\/RESTRICTED_DATA\/HH_BL_Survey_Phase_2\/P2_hh_baseline_codebook.csv. All part of the same study, \\\"The General Equilibrium Effects of Large Universal Cash Transfers in Malawi\\\" (Egger, Dennis et al. 2026, AEA RCT Registry AEARCTR-0015292): the baseline enterprise and market survey (3,943 surveys covering all 79 Phase I and II markets in Chiradzulu district) and the Phase I (3,275 households, southern 4 TAs of Chiradzulu) and Phase II household baseline surveys. \nTo request access, contact the study team (Dennis Egger, University of Oxford, dennis.egger@economics.ox.ac.uk; John Walker, University of Oxford, john.walker@economics.ox.ac.uk); access is at the study team's discretion and may require a data use agreement. For more details on the data, interested users can reach out to one of the authors at spennings@worldbank.org. Without these data, only Table A1 cannot be reproduced; it was verified through virtual verification. ","access_type":"Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners\/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.","license":"Confidential","citation":"Egger, Dennis, et al. (2026). The General Equilibrium Effects of Large Universal Cash Transfers in Malawi: enterprise and market baseline survey [dataset]. Unpublished data. AEA RCT Registry AEARCTR-0015292. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1257\/rct.15292-2.0"}],"technology_environment":"Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:\nOS: Windows 11 Enterprise\nProcessor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Platinum 8562Y+ (2 processors)\nMemory available: 128 GB\nSoftware version: MATLAB R2024b with Dynare 5.4; Stata 18.0 MP","reproduction_instructions":"To reproduce the findings:\n1. Secure data access for the datasets not included in the package. See more details in the README and Data section of this entry. \n2. MATLAB (model exhibits): open `Master.m` and edit line 22 (root_dir, path to this package's folder) and line 23 (DYNARE_PATH, path to your Dynare installation's MATLAB folder), and run.\n3. Stata (appendix Table A1, Figure B2): open `Master.do` and edit line 10 (global root_dir, path to this package's folder). Run the script.\n\nThe restricted data not included in the folder is only needed to reproduce Appendix Table A1 and the Section 2.2 treated-region hand-to-mouth and price-stickiness calibrations. These were verified by the replicators during a virtual verification, and the results are included in the package in the folder `virtual verification`.\n"},"datacite":{"creators":[{"givenName":"Steven Michael","familyName":"Pennings","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank Group","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/02md09461","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Arthur Galego","familyName":"Mendes","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"World Bank Group","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/02md09461","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org"}]},{"givenName":"Thuy Lan","familyName":"Nguyen","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/05p5xsx92"}]},{"givenName":"Wataru","familyName":"Miyamoto","nameType":"Personal","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Hong Kong","affiliationIdentifierScheme":"ROR","schemeUri":"https:\/\/ror.org","affiliationIdentifier":"https:\/\/ror.org\/02zhqgq86"}]}],"titles":[{"lang":"en","title":"Reproducibility package for Cash Transfers in Developing Countries: Local Multipliers, Aggregate Effects, and External Adjustment"},{"title":"RR_SSA_2026_799","titleType":"Other"}],"publisher":"World Bank","publicationYear":"2026","types":{"resourceType":"Reproducibility package","resourceTypeGeneral":"Other"},"url":"https:\/\/reproducibility.worldbank.org\/index.php\/catalog\/study\/RR_SSA_2026_799","language":"en"},"tags":[{"tag":"Accessible Data"},{"tag":"DOI"},{"tag":"Open Code"},{"tag":"Restricted Data"}],"schematype":"script"}