Reproducibility package for Rules With Teeth? Evidence On The Impact Of Fiscal Rules On The Likelihood And Nature Of Fiscal Adjustments
Overview
Do fiscal rules meaningfully constrain fiscal policy by prompting discrete fiscal adjustments? Does rule design shape how adjustment is carried out? We address these questions using a panel of 160 countries that includes 34 advanced economies and 126emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) over 1984–2022. We construct cyclically adjusted primary balances (CAPB) and identify fiscal adjustment episodes using Bai–Perron structural break tests. The results show that fiscal adjustments are more frequent and longer in advanced economies, while in EMDEs they are more intense and often driven by revenue increases. The presence of fiscal rules is associated with a substantially higher probability of initiating fiscal adjustment, with the effect concentrated in frameworks that include deficit rules, feature broad public-sector coverage, and avoid carve-outs for priority spending. Fiscal rules are linked to both expenditure-led and revenue-led adjustments, but design features shape adjustment composition. Enforcement provisions and cyclically adjusted deficit targets are associated with a greater reliance on expenditure restraint, while escape clauses are associated with a weaker link between fiscal rules and revenue-led adjustment.The results therefore underscore that fit-for-purpose design—rather than one-size-fits-all templates—is central to the success of fiscal rules.
Reproducibility Package
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Reproducibility
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz
• Memory available: 32.0 GB
Runtime: ~2 hours.
To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:
- Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
- Run the Package:
- Update the working directory of the do-file
Master script.do, and run it.
Since not all the original data can be redistributed, the package includes the outputs produced by the authors, which can be used to review the results presented in the paper.
Data
Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, refer to the README file.
Description
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Bram Gootjes | World Bank | bgootjes@worldbank.org |
| Joseph Mawejje | World Bank | jmawejje@worldbank.org |
| Dana Vorisek | World Bank | dvorisek@worldbank.org |
2026-07-20
Scope and coverage
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| World | WLD |
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| MIT License | https://opensource.org/license/mit |
| World Bank IGO Rider | https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md |
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Bram Gootjes | World Bank | bgootjes@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
2026-07-20
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