Reproducibility package for Sovereign Risk Repricing After Hidden-Debt Revelations
Overview
Hidden government debt—liabilities that governments incurred but did not fully disclose—can undermine fiscal sustainability. This paper identifies seven hidden-debt revelations during 2005–25 and measures the response of daily sovereign risk spreadsfollowing revelations. It finds that sovereign risk spreads rise gradually but persistently in response to a revelation. The pooled sovereign risk spread for the seven countries rises substantially, by 108 basis points (bps) on average during the first 30 days after revelation (with 66 bps of that in the first 10 days), and an additional 98 bps during days 31–60. The baseline results are robust to various alternative specifications. Additional exercises show that when debt reconciliation is delayed or contested, sovereign spreads rise roughly 200 basis points more over 60 days than when reconciliation is prompt and credible, although, with only seven episodes, this finding is suggestive.
Reproducibility Package
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Reproducibility
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 5218 CPU @ 2.30GHz (2.30 GHz) (2 processors)
• Memory available: 16 GB
Runtime ~ 3 minutes
To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:
- Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details
- Open the do file "For_Journal_Submission_Revised_Latest", update the directory on line 37, install the required packages and run the file
Since all of the data is restricted, the package includes the outputs produced by the replicators, which can be used to review the results presented in the paper
Data
Some data is limited-access and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, refer to the README file.(Limited-access/Accessible data)
Description
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Reina Eskimez | World Bank | rkawai@worldbank.org |
| Jiwon Lee | World Bank | jlee70@worldbank.org |
| Franz Ulrich Ruch | World Bank | fruch@worldbank.org |
2026-09-04
Scope and coverage
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| World | WLD |
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| MIT License | https://opensource.org/license/mit |
| World Bank IGO Rider | https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md |
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Reina Eskimez | World Bank | rkawai@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
2026-09-04
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