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Reproducibility package for Investor-State Arbitration And Foreign Investment: Evidence From ICSID Membership

2026
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Reference ID
RR_WLD_2026_765
Author(s)
Bob Rijkers, Daria Taglioni, Guido Porto, Guillermo Falcone
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
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Created on
Oct 26, 2026
Last modified
Oct 26, 2026
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  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata

    • Overview

    Abstract

    We study how investor–State dispute settlement (ISDS) affects foreign direct investment (FDI) by examining countries’ membership to the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) and their first ISDS cases. Using a Poisson Pseudo–Maximum Likelihood (PPML) event-study estimator and newly compiled data, we find that ICSID membership is associated with a substantial increase in bilateral investment, while a first ISDS case has no statistically significant effect. The results are not driven by simultaneous proliferation of bilateral investment treaties or other confounding events. ICSID membership thus appears to promote foreign direct investment.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_WLD_2026_765
    Zip package
    RR_WLD_2026_765.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Investor-State Arbitration And Foreign Investment: Evidence From ICSID Membership
    Date
    2026-10
    Dependencies
    Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    19.5 MP

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz
    • Memory available: 32.0 GB
    Technology requirements

    Run time: ~4 days.
    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:

    1. Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
    2. Run the Package:
    • Update the working directory in line 8 of the do-file dofiles/0_run_all.do, and run it.

    Since not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    Member States ICSID (International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes)
    Note
    Source: Compiled by the authors based on the Database of ICSID Member States. Access date: February 2026. File location: "results\tables\tableA2_icsid_members_compact.tex".
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://icsid.worldbank.org/about/member-states/database-of-member-states
    Citation
    Authors' compilation. 2026. Member States ICSID [dataset]. Based on the Database of ICSID Member States. https://icsid.worldbank.org/about/member-states/database-of-member-states. Accessed February 2026.
    Name
    Bilateral Foreign Direct Investments Statistics
    Note
    Source: United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Historical country workbooks and 1980-2000 workbook. Both collections were provided by email by the UNCTAD Statistics Unit (Division on Investment and Enterprise, Statistics@unctad.org). Access date: Unknown. Package files were last modified May 2025 and February 2026. File location: "datain/unctad".
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    Citation
    United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2025). "Bilateral FDI Flows and Stocks, historical country workbooks and Bilateral Flows and Stock 1980-2000" [dataset]. UNCTAD FDI/MNE database, provided by the UNCTAD Statistics Unit upon request.
    Name
    Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) Cases
    Note
    Source: United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Investment Policy Hub, Investment Dispute Settlement Navigator. Release of 31 December 2023. File location: "datain/UNCTAD-ISDS-Navigator-data-set-31December2023.xlsx”.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    License URL
    https://unctad.org/terms
    Data URL
    https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/publications/1303/investment-dispute-settlement-navigator-full-isds-data-release-as-of-31-12-2023-in-excel-format-
    Citation
    UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2024). "Investment Dispute Settlement Navigator: Full Data Release as of 31 December 2023" [dataset]. UNCTAD Investment Policy Hub. https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/publications/1303/investment-dispute-settlement-navigator-full-isds-data-release-as-of-31-12-2023-in-excel-format-.
    Name
    World Development Indicators (WDI)
    Note
    Source: World Bank. Author-prepared historical extract. The indicator selection is specified in 2_prepare_wbdata.do. Access date: February 2026. File location: "datain/wdi/wb_data_2026-02-03.dta”.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/public-licenses?fragment=cc
    Data URL
    https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
    Citation
    World Bank. (2026). World Development Indicators [Dataset]. World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed February 2026.
    Name
    International Country Risk Guide (ICRG)
    Note
    Source: The PRS Group. Access date: Unknown. Package files were last modified June 2025. File location: "datain/prs/institutional_variables.csv”.
    Access policy
    Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    License URL
    https://www.prsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Disclaim.pdf
    Data URL
    https://www.prsgroup.com/explore-our-products/icrg/
    Citation
    The PRS Group. (2025). International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) [dataset]. The PRS Group. https://www.prsgroup.com/explore-our-products/icrg/.
    Name
    J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI)
    Note
    Source: J.P. Morgan. Quarterly workbook and annual extract. Access date: June 2026. File location: "datain/EMBI". File names: EMBI All Countries_qtrly_2026.xlsx; EMBI_Spreads_MorganMarkets_long.csv.
    Access policy
    Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    License URL
    https://www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/jpmorgan-markets
    Data URL
    https://www.jpmorgan.com/markets/dataquery
    Citation
    J.P. Morgan. (2026). Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) [dataset]. J.P. Morgan Markets. https://www.jpmorgan.com/markets/dataquery. Accessed June 2026.
    Name
    Electronic Database of Investment Treaties (EDIT) Panel
    Note
    Source: Pellegrino, Spolaore and Wacziarg (2025), Geo-Political Distance Data Repository; derived from the EDIT database by Alschner, Elsig and Polanco. Access date: Unknown. Package files were last modified December 2025. File location: "datain/QJE - Barriers to Global Capital Allocation/EDIT_panel.dta”.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://www.geopoliticaldistance.org/links
    Citation
    Pellegrino, B., Spolaore, E., and Wacziarg, R. (2025). "Investment Treaties (EDIT) panel" [dataset]. Geo-Political Distance Data Repository. Based on the Electronic Database of Investment Treaties (EDIT) by Alschner, Elsig and Polanco. https://www.geopoliticaldistance.org/links. Data from: Pellegrino, B., Spolaore, E., and Wacziarg, R. (2025). Barriers to Global Capital Allocation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 140(4), 3067–3131.
    Name
    International Capital Taxation Dataset
    Note
    Source: Pellegrino, Spolaore and Wacziarg (2025), Geo-Political Distance Data Repository. Access date: Unknown. Package files were last modified December 2025. File location: "datain/QJE - Barriers to Global Capital Allocation/bilateral_tax_rates.dta”.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://www.geopoliticaldistance.org/international-capital-taxation
    Citation
    Pellegrino, B., Spolaore, E., and Wacziarg, R. (2025). "International Capital Taxation" [dataset]. Geo-Political Distance Data Repository. https://www.geopoliticaldistance.org/international-capital-taxation. Data from: Pellegrino, B., Spolaore, E., and Wacziarg, R. (2025). Barriers to Global Capital Allocation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 140(4), 3067–3131.
    Name
    Regional Trade Agreements Database
    Note
    Source: Mario Larch's Regional Trade Agreements Database, University of Bayreuth. Release 20241028. Access date: Unknown. Package files were last modified December 2025. File location: "datain/QJE - Barriers to Global Capital Allocation/rta_20241028_dta/rta_20241028.dta”.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://www.ewf.uni-bayreuth.de/en/research/daten/01rta-data/index.html
    Citation
    Larch, Mario. (2024). Regional Trade Agreements Database from Egger and Larch (2008), release 20241028 [dataset]. University of Bayreuth. https://www.ewf.uni-bayreuth.de/en/research/daten/01rta-data/index.html. Access date not confirmed. Egger, Peter H., and Mario Larch (2008). Interdependent Preferential Trade Agreement Memberships: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of International Economics 76(2), 384–399.
    Name
    Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions
    Note
    Source: Center for Systemic Peace. Polity5 Annual Time-Series, 1946-2018, version 2018. Access date: Unknown. Package files were last modified April 2026. File location: "datain/polity_v/p5v2018.xls”.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    License URL
    https://systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
    Data URL
    http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p5v2018.xls
    Citation
    Marshall, Monty G., and Ted Robert Gurr. (2020). Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, Polity5 Annual Time-Series, 1946-2018 [dataset]. Center for Systemic Peace. https://systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html.
    Name
    Armed Conflict Dataset – Version 25.1
    Note
    Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Version 25.1. File location: "datain/ucdp/ucdp-prio-acd-251-xlsx/UcdpPrioConflict_v25_1.xlsx".
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/olddw.html
    Citation
    UCDP and PRIO. (2025). UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, version 25.1 [dataset]. Uppsala University. https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/. Gleditsch, Nils Petter, et al. (2002). Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39(5), 615–637; Davies, Shawn, Therése Pettersson, Margareta Sollenberg, and Magnus Öberg (2025). Organized violence 1989–2024, and the challenges of identifying civilian victims. Journal of Peace Research 62(4).
    Name
    Country-Year Dataset on Organized Violence within Country Borders – Version 25.1
    Note
    Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). Version 25.1. File location: "datain/ucdp/organizedviolencecy-251-xlsx/organizedviolencecy_v25_1.xlsx”.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/olddw.html
    Citation
    UCDP. (2025). UCDP Country-Year Dataset on Organized Violence within Country Borders, version 25.1 [dataset]. Uppsala University. https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/. Sundberg, Ralph, and Erik Melander (2013). Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 50(4), 523–532.
    Name
    Freedom in the World: Country and Territory Ratings and Statuses, 1973–2026
    Note
    Source: Freedom House. Access date: May 2026. File location: "datain/freedom_house/Country_and_Territory_Ratings_and_Statuses_FIW_1973-2026.xlsx”.
    Access policy
    Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    License URL
    https://freedomhouse.org/about-us/content-permissions#a1
    Data URL
    https://freedomhouse.org/data-request
    Citation
    Freedom House. (2026). Freedom in the World: Country and Territory Ratings and Statuses, 1973–2026 [dataset]. Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world. Accessed May 2026.
    Name
    Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) – 2025 update
    Note
    Source: World Bank. Access date: Unknown. Package files were last modified February 2026. File location: "datain/wgi/wgidataset_with_sourcedata-2025.dta”.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators/usage-advisory
    Data URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators
    Citation
    World Bank. (2025). Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2025 Update [Dataset]. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators.
    Data statement

    The reproducibility package relies on four types of data: open, accessible, limited-access, and restricted data. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and the README file.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Investor-State Arbitration And Foreign Investment: Evidence From ICSID Membership
    Authors
    Guillermo Falcone, Guido Porto, Bob Rijkers, Daria Taglioni
    Description
    Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Bob Rijkers World Bank brijkers@worldbankgroup.org
    Daria Taglioni World Bank dtaglioni@worldbankgroup.org
    Guido Porto Universidad Nacional de La Plata guido.porto@depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar
    Guillermo Falcone Universidad National de la Plata and World Bank guillermofalcone@gmail.com
    Date of production

    2026-10-21

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    World WLD
    Keywords
    Investment FDI ICSID Property Rights
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    F21 International Investment • Long-Term Capital Movements F2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    F23 Multinational Firms • International Business F2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    F53 International Agreements and Observance • International Organizations F5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    F55 International Institutional Arrangements F5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    K33 International Law K3 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    K41 Litigation Process K4 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    MIT License https://opensource.org/license/mit
    World Bank IGO Rider https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Bob Rijkers World Bank brijkers@worldbankgroup.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-10-21
    Document version

    1
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